Please watch my new YouTube video: Russia’s looming default
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and eleventh YouTube video “Russia’s looming default” went up today.
Putting on those emerging market hedges ahead of schedule–today, right now–buying EWZ and EWW Put Options
When I posted over the weekend that coming increase in interest rates from the Federal Reserve and the possibility of soaring energy prices from a Russia/Ukraine conflict and the ensuring sanctions by Western allies against Russia constituted a double whammy on emerging market assets and developing economies. A strong dollar and higher U.S. interest rates would exacerbate a looming debt crisis (yes, yet again) in the developing world, and higher oil and natural gas prices (and tighter supplies) would hit developing economies really really hard. I said then that I’d be looking for hedges to insure against and profit from the downside risk in emerging market assets. Well, things have moved faster than I expected
Trick or Trend: Emerging Market underperformance will be with us for a while
In late November non-resident cash flows to emerging market assets, excluding China, turned negative for the first time since March 2020 and the Pandemic global economic dip, according to the Institute of International Finance.
Trick or Trend: A dollar rally is raising the risk to emerging economies and commodities
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Satur... To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing...
Trick or trend: Emerging markets don’t like the jump in U.S. Treasury yields
Cash flows for emerging market stocks turned negative in the last week of February, according to the Institute for International Finance. Cash flows for emerging market debt turned negative last week. The data show daily outflows of $290 million in the last week. That compares to daily inflows of about $325 million in February.
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead watch…
... the dollar. The dollar continued to fall last week. The dollar spot index (DXY) of the dollar against a basket of other major trading currencies is now down 4.32% for the year (as of the close on November 6.) More recently, the dollar is down 5.3% since June 29....
Trick or trend: Will the weak dollar ever turn higher?
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Of course,...
If the dollar gets stronger, it won’t be good news for emerging market assets
The weak dollar of the past few months has been a boon to emerging market assets. It has made the dollar-denominated interest payments that many companies in these economies need to make cheaper in local currency terms. It has helped support financial assets in...
China’s exports get hit by coronavirus disruption in the rest of the global economy
We won't know until March 31 when he purchasing managers' indexes for China are released but it looks like China will see its first quarterly contraction of its economy in decades and the weakest year since 1976. The problem is that just as Chinese factories are going...
Selling emerging markets short ETF EUM out of my Volatility Portfolio
I don't know whether you've been able to hear it over all the other market noise--All the shouting on Brexit, for example--but there is a distinct and increasingly loud call from Wall Street that 2020 is the year to get back into emerging market assets. I don't happen...
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
... central bank week. The Federal Reserve announces changes to U.S. benchmark interest rates on Wednesday, December 11. The central bank is expected to keep rates at current levels. The European Central Bank meets a day later, on Thursday, December 12. It too is...
