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Posts Tagged ‘U.S. economy’

The market is dangerously dependent on the Powell Put from the Fed

Right now if the market gets bad news on the economy it goes up. Today, May 15, for example, the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% even though both U.S. and Chinese retail sales disappointed for April. Right now if the market gets bad news on oil supplies, it goes up, as it did yesterday and […]

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Negative economic numbers from both China and United States this morning

I'd give the edge to China in the "Whose news is worse?" sweepstakes this morning. For April China's retail sales rose 7.2% year over year--good news except that economists were projecting an 8.6% increase and that March showed 8.7% year over year growth. The April year over year retail sales growth was the lowest in […]

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Rational self-interest argues for a successful conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks in the long run; in the short run it argues that the talks will fall apart first

It is clearly in the self interest of both President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to reach an agreement that would bring the U.S.-China trade war to an end. In the long-run. That same calculus, however, argues that in the short run both leaders will let the current round of talks fail. The long-run […]

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Trick or trend: Crucial pivot point approaches for U.S.manufacturing

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Sunday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. This week's ISM Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing suggests that we're approaching a pivot point […]

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Economy added surprisingly strong 263,000 jobs in April; wage gains, labor participation are red flags

The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April. (The March jobs number was revised downward.) The gains for April exceeded all estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. In March the Federal Reserve had forecast that unemployment would falll to 3.7% by the end of 2019. There were a […]

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More of the same in today’s economic data: low inflation, good growth in consumer spending, but lagging incomes

Put today's numbers on the economy together with those in Friday's first quarter GDP report and the picture that emerges is of a U.S. economy growing at s very solid rate with declining inflation. But where the trends on consumer incomes and spending suggest, maybe, trouble down the road. This morning the Bureau of Economic […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

... to be drowning in economic data. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, May 1, isn't even the high point of the data week. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged so it's Chair Jerome Powell's press conference after the meeting that will draw most of the attention. […]

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GDP growth surprises at 3.2% in first quarter; economists question sustainability

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.2% real rate in the first quarter. That's substantially stronger than the 2.2% growth in the fourth quarter and way above projections for 1.9% growth among economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Inflation remained very subdued with the GDP Deflator showing inflation at 0.9%. Inflation by this measure was 1.7% in […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

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JNJ earnings a tale of two companies

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