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Posts Tagged ‘U.S. economy’

Decent job growth in July; bond market prices in 100% chance of another interest rate cut on September 18

The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in July. That's down from the 193,000 jobs added in June (revised down from an initial 224,000) and slightly higher than the 160,000 jobs forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com At 3.7% the headline unemployment rate was even with the 3.7% rate in June. The U6 unemployment rate, which […]

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China and tariffs aside, there’s other news on the economy today and it’s negative

Today's release of the Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing for July got overshadowed by President Donald Trump's announcement that he would impose a 10% tariff on an additional $300 billion in Chinese exports to the United States beginning on September 1. But that report held important negative news for the manufacturing sector and for U.S. […]

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Trick or Trend: Despite the good news from consumers, the U.S. manufacturing sector slips into a “technical recession”

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. The overall U.S. economy grew at a better than expected 2.1% year over year rate […]

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Goldilocks is alive and well, thanks to the U.S. consumer

The U.S. economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported this morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had projected that year over year growth in GDP would fall to 1.8%. So today's number is stronger than expected but still very much weaker than first […]

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A pause before tomorrow’s GDP report–and on worries about global growth

U.S. stocks paused as expected today ahead of tomorrow's initial report on growth in U.S. GDP for the second quarter. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are expecting that GDP growth dipped to 1.8% year over year in the quarter, down from 3.1% in the first quarter. All 11 industry sectors in the S&P 500 closed lower […]

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Stronger than expected jobs reports kills odds on a 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed on July 31

U.S. stocks initially sold off on this morning's stronger than expected jobs report for June. At 10:45 a.m. New York time the Standard & Poor's 500 was down 0.92%. The fear was that the addition of 224,000 jobs in June, well above the 160,000 forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com, reduced the odds that the […]

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Now it’s the service sector showing weakness

In a report on Monday the Purchasing Managers' Index for the U.S. manufacturing sector slipped. For June the index moved down to 51.7 from 52.1 in May. That still signals expansion--anything over 50 denotes expansion, anything under 50 signals contraction--but manufacturing activity continues to slide. Today the Purchasing Managers' Index for services--the bulk of U.S. […]

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Head of Cleveland Fed argues against July interest rate cut–markets shrugs off her comments

In a speech today, July 2, in London Loretta Mester, president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, argued against an interest rate cut at the central bank's July 31 meeting. “Cutting rates at this juncture could reinforce negative sentiment about a deterioration in the outlook even if this is not the baseline view,” she said. A […]

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China, U.S. economic data take gloss off of trade truce

Earlier this morning--11 a.m. New York time--the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index was up almost 1% on news that talks between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping had resulted in a trade truce and the resumption of talks aimed at ending the trade war between the two countries. But data showing weakness in […]

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Is that inflation we see?

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, picked up in May by 0.2% from April. That took the annual inflation rate to 1.6%. That was just above the median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and still way under the Fed's target of 2% inflation. But if you look […]

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