COST
April 28, 2026 | CCJ, COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LNG, PAAS, Special Reports, WMT |
Could stocks move higher from here even though they’re more expensive than a year ago? Of course.
Could they gain another 29.8% in a year? It’s possible. But it strikes me as unlikely.
That sums up the current market puzzle very neatly, I think. Stocks are expensive and don’t seem to be pricing in potential very real risks. But stocks have returned almost 30% in the last year. And it’s very hard to walk away from the possibility of that kind of gain. Even if it is unlikely. What I’d suggest right now is a stock market strategy that takes into account both a solid appreciation of the excessive valuations in this market (along with a failure to price in risk), and the realities of investor psychology.
It is too difficult to go cold turkey on stocks right now and move 100% out of the market. On the other hand, you should be moving to reduce your exposure to the riskiest parts of the market–high multiple stocks–and raising your exposure to counter-cyclical or non-cyclical stocks. In this post, I’m going to give you 10 stock picks to use in executing that kind of strategy–a way to stay in the market and yet to reduce your risks.
March 5, 2026 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, WMT |
Today I’m adding Costco Wholesale (COST) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
I’m looking for stocks of companies that might actually benefit from the effects of the war with Iran on the U.S. economy. There aren’t many candidates. Costco is one. (Walmart is another but it’s already in the Jubak Picks Portfolio where it’s up 27% since my pick on August 25.)
May 17, 2025 | COST, Daily JAM, Short Term, WMT |
Look for a flood of earnings news from retailers. After last week’s guidance from Walmart (WMT) that it would be raising prices because if the Trump tariffs, investors–and the Federal Reserve–will be waiting to see if retailers without Walmart’s pricing and logistics clout will paint an even more dire picture on price increases–and thus future inflation.
March 13, 2025 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos, WMT |
Today’s video is Retail Stocks and Recession Fears. In the past week we’ve seen a cascade of negative news from the retail sector. Macy’s announced projected comparable store sales would be “down slightly” for 2025, and Target expected flat comparable store sales for 2025. Last week, Target’s stock was down 7.4% and Best Buy fell 11.5%. I own Costco and Wal-Mart, (the best retail stocks at the moment) but I will be selling them this week. Costco, which I bought in 2022, is up 69% since I purchased it. I’ll be taking my profits and eliminating my exposure to the sector, which is a good place to be while tariffs and a volatile economy threaten retail stocks.
March 10, 2025 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, WMT |
With fears of an economic slowdown punishing the market today, I think it’s more than time to sell my Jubak Picks positions in Walmart (WMT) and Costco Wholesale (Cost) even though they are the two best companies in the retail sector. As of noon New York time today Walmart is down another 3.57% and Costco has dropped 2.64%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 is lower by 2.21% and the NASDAQ Composite is off 3.55%.
December 15, 2023 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
Costco Wholesale (COST) reported earnings for its fiscal first quarter of 2024 and declared a long anticipated special dividend of $15 a share. The stock closed up 4.61% on Friday, December 15.
May 23, 2023 | COST, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, WMT |
More woe for the retail sector this morning BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) reported first-quarter results before the market open that missed expectations for same-store sales growth (with earnings per share matching estimates.) The big killer, though, was guidance from the company that said second-quarter comparable store sales are tracking below the 5.7% increase in the first quarter. That 5.7% growth in first-quarter comparable store sales was below the 5.9% that Wall Street analysts had expected. The stock closed today down 7.26% on the day.
April 18, 2023 | B, COST, Daily JAM, GDX, GLD, KO, Mid Term, PEP, RWM, Special Reports |
10 Picks for the Coming Recession. This one is especially difficult. Not only do I face the usual crystal-ball problem that comes up whenever you try to pick an investment for the future–what’s the macro and micro world going to look like in 6 months or a year from now–but I’ve got two big Recession-specific challenges. First, is there actually going to be a Recession in 2023? All the signs, in my opinion, point toward a recession in the second and third quarters, but it’s by no means guaranteed that we’ll have the two quarters of negative GDP growth that’s required by the minimal definition of a recession. And what’s the point, you might well ask, of making picks for a coming recession that never arrives? And, second, how bad will this recession be?
February 27, 2023 | COST, Daily JAM, Videos, WMT |
This week’s Trend of the Week is How Tired Is the Consumer? Consumer spending makes up 70% of the economy, so if consumers get tired and start spending less, the economy as a whole will slow down. The current consumer data doesn’t look good. Credit card debt is at an all-time high and delinquency rates are up to 4%. On February 21, Walmart (NYSE: WMT) came out worried about the full year, noting that consumers were purchasing less-expensive goods, and lowered its guidance for 2023 below Wall Street expectations. However, the lowered guidance didn’t affect the stock price. Why? As consumers are looking more tired, investors will look for stocks like Walmart and Costco, where a consumer would go to substitute products with lower prices. If you’re looking to put some money somewhere if the consumer is looking tired, Costco (NASDAQ: COST), Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Dollar General (NYSE: DG) are good options. If you believe the consumer is REALLY tired, you may want to look to put your money somewhere outside of the market, like a CD with a 5% yield. For other 5% options, check out my recent post “The best way to get a 5% yield–my choices and their pluses and minuses”: https://www.jubakpicks.com/the-best-way-to-get-a-5-yield-my-choices-and-their-pluses-and-minuses/.
December 19, 2022 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos, WMT |
This week’s Trend of the Week: Christmas? Bah Humbug! Harris recently did a poll for Bloomberg that showed 60% of the people polled said they would be buying fewer gifts for fewer people this year due to inflation. That same poll said that 60% of respondents said they’d be cutting back on holiday travel, and 33% said they were skipping gift-giving completely. We’ll skip the discussion about the spirit of Christmas, and look at how this is going to affect retail and airline earnings in January. Retailers like Costco, Wal-Mart, and Kohl’s have already warned Wall Street that sales will not be great for Christmas, but even with that warning, retailers could surprise investors with lower-than-expected numbers. Costco announced its fiscal first-quarter earnings on December 10 with sales going up 6%. Although they were warned that margins were going to be soft, Wall Street was expecting 6.9% same-store growth and punished the shares accordingly with a huge drop in the stock. Costco is a great retailer for this moment, with affordable pricing on a wide range of goods and gas sales bringing in traffic. If Costco’s trending this way, I think we can expect the same from companies like Walmart and Kohl’s. It’s likely the airlines will take a hit as well, with the drop in holiday travel. For now, drink your wassail and try not to think about impending January earnings!
October 5, 2022 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
After the market close on October 5, Costco Wholesale (COST) reported that sales for September had climbed 10.1% to $21.46 billion. Total same-store sales rose 8.5% in September, beating Wall Street’s estimate of 6.3% growth.
September 26, 2022 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
Shares of Costco Wholesale closed up 2.98% on September 26. The advance against the grain of a generally down market comes after the company announced a beat on both revenue and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday, September 22.
