December 5th, 2019, 2:01 PM
With 15 defaults in November, total onshore bond defaults have hit $120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion)in 2019, according to Bloomberg. That's close to the 121.9 billion yuan record set in 2018. While the $17.1 billion in onshore defaults seems insignificant compared to the $4.4 trillion size of China's total onshore corporate bond market, they're enough […]
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December 4th, 2019, 5:00 PM
A day after "news" on the lack of progress of U.S.-China trade talks led to a decline in stocks, "news" of progress in the talks has led to a modest rally. The Standard & Poor's 500 closed up 0.63% today and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 0.53%. The NASDAQ Composite finished up 0.54% […]
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December 3rd, 2019, 3:02 PM
“I don’t have a deadline,” Trump told reporters today in London. “I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now and we’ll see whether not the deal is going to be right.” And with that financial markets that had been counting on […]
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December 2nd, 2019, 6:03 PM
According to the Purchasing Managers Index from the Institute for Supply Management the U.S.manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction in November with the index dropping to 48.1 in November from 48.3 in October. That was a fourth-straight monthly contraction for the index. (Anything below 50 signals contraction. Above 50 points to an expansion.) On the […]
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December 2nd, 2019, 3:23 PM
President Donald Trump has reinstated tariffs on steel and aluminum exports from Argentina and Brazil, leaving global financial markets wondering what that means. At best, the move is based on mis-understanding by the White House of how exchange rates work. The justification that President Trump offered for reimposing the tariffs is that “Brazil and Argentina […]
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November 25th, 2019, 4:36 PM
Today both the Standard & Poor's 500 and the NASDAQ Composite Index hit all time highs. As of 3:40 p.m. New York time on Monday, November 25, the S&P 500 was up 0.67% and the NASDAQn Composite had gained 1.26%. There are two main drivers for the market advance today. First, a surge in Merger […]
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November 22nd, 2019, 4:59 PM
In spite of all the delays and all the contradictory claims I remain convinced that a Part 1 trade agreement between the U.S. and China will get signed. Maybe not in the remainder of 2019 but certainly within the early part of 2020. A wider agreement to settle issues such as greater protection for intellectual […]
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November 21st, 2019, 2:46 PM
You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about to tumble. (Called "The Powell Put" after […]
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November 20th, 2019, 4:32 PM
As you might imagine, this complicates things. Just as U.S. and Chinese negotiators struggle to put together a Part 1 deal to de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war, the two houses of the U.S. Congress are moving to pass legislation that would support pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong. China has officially labeled the legislation a gross […]
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November 16th, 2019, 5:13 PM
...a pause in the news flow. The week ahead won't be completely quiet, of course. There's the little matter of the Part 1 agreement to settle some of the issues in the U.S.-China trade war. If this last week is any indication, we'll have lots of "announcements" from the White House trade team and even […]
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