Jubak Picks
November 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, GM, Jubak Picks |
Granted it’s only a forecast, but yesterday General Motors (GM) forecast that its electric vehicle models will start generating a profit in 2025. The company now projects free cash flow of as much as $11 billion, compared with prior guidance of $7 billion to $9 billion. Electric-vehicle sales should top $50 billion in 2025, GM said. The Detroit-based company plans to build 400,000 EVs in North America from 2022 through the first half of 2024. Production capacity will reach 1 million units annually in North America in 2025. By 2025, its family of electric crossover SUVs, pickups, and luxury models will compete in segments that represent about 70% of the electric vehicle industry volume, the company projects.
November 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, PXD, Special Reports |
When I put together my Special Report: “5 Safe Dividend Stocks Paying 6% or More,” one key requirement was that the company showed a long track record of raising dividends every year and the clear potential to continue to raise dividends every year. That formula could turn a 6% annual dividend yield now into 8% or 9% or even more over the next ten years. A safe almost guaranteed 10% yield at the end of 10 years strikes me as a very attractive prospect, especially given how tough I think the financial markets are going to be over the next five years or more. (For more on that outlook see my recently revised Special Report: “Your Best Investment Strategy for the Next Five Years.”) But I realized, looking at all the high-yield stocks that didn’t make the cut for that report that the requirement for a high-probability trend of higher dividends each year for the next 10 years, that this requirement left a lot of stocks paying very attractive high dividends now on the cutting room floor. Stocks paying 8% or more got left off the list because I didn’t see a commitment at the company to continued dividend increases every year or enough growth in free cash flow to make it possible for a company to raise or maintain its dividend through the ups and downs of the business cycle. These stocks paying 8% or more were very safe bets to continue paying that yield for the next year or two. But 10 years? Too much uncertainty. Which doesn’t mean you shouldn’t own some of these stocks now. An 8% or better yield for a couple of years is a very attractive prospect given how uncertain the economy and the stock market are right now. And an investor has a very simple remedy if a company looks like it can’t or isn’t committed to sustaining that yield. Sell the stock. So with all that in mind, I’ve put together a list of five “outlier” dividend stocks paying 8% or more at a time when the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) has a yield of just 1.6%.
November 14, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PXD, Videos |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-fifth YouTube video. This week’s Trend of the Week: U.S. Oil Production is Not Rising as Expected. Oil prices have averaged $100 per barrel over 2022–a figure that would normally lead oil companies to expand production and capital spending, but it hasn’t this time. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. oil production is only up about 3% from December 2021. Projections had the U.S. at 12 million barrels a day by the end of this year, but we’re currently only at 9.77 million barrels a day. Why is the production not going up? Oil shale fields deplete faster than traditional fields and we may have reached peak production in some of these oil shale basins. The best properties may have been exhausted and we’re now seeing companies move to their more inferior properties. The drilling and fracking may be happening at a steady pace, but we’re not getting as much out of the wells and properties currently being drilled. Companies that had a stock of drilled, but uncompleted have now worked through those “spare” wells and don’t have the motivation to drill new ones as Wall Street and investors would prefer high dividends instead of capital spent on a commodity that has an unclear future. The two oil companies I would look at are Pioneer Natural Resources Company (NYSE: PXD) and ConocoPhillips (COP) because of their mix of resources.
October 26, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
Microsoft (MSFT) managed to beat Wall Street earnings estimates for its fiscal first quarter, reporting earnings of $2.35 a share versus the $2.29 expected by analysts after the market close on October 25. But the stock is down strongly today, October 26, on the company’s forecast of slowing growth for the next quarter and a decline in growth from its Intelligent Cloud business unit.
October 25, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, EQNR, Jubak Picks, PXD, Videos, Volatility |
Today I posted my one-hundred-ninety-sixth YouTube video: Trend of the Week Seasonal Trends in Energy. This week’s Trend of the Week: Seasonal Trends in Energy. There’s a predictable pattern in oil and natural gas prices. In late fall, October to November, you can expect a deep dive to begin and carry on through the winter, with a sharp rise in March and early spring. You can see this trend looking at previous years in the United States Oil Fund (NYSEARCA: USO) and the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSEARCA: UNG). Right now, we’re heading into that dip in energy prices but you should not sell – in fact, you should be adding to these positions. This seasonal fall in energy prices will allow you to get ahead of the spring bounce. Europe’s energy supply is enough to get through the upcoming winter but, in March, as they look toward next year’s supply, they’ll need to start rebuilding inventories in a market strained by the war in Ukraine, cuts in production, and a hostile OPEC. Stateside, the US Energy Information Administration is projecting record production from the Permian Basin of Texas and Oklahoma, as well as record production of natural gas this year. Even though we’re not seeing a whole lot of capital expenditure, they’re uncapping wells and pumping them harder. Look at USO and UNG as ETF oil and natural gas buys For individual stocks I’d look at Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), and EQUINOR (NYSE: EQNR)–all of which I own in portfolios and have no intention of selling anytime soon.
October 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, KO, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
This morning before the stock market open Coca-Cola reported earnings of 69 cents a share for the third quarter. That was up from 65 cents a share in the third quarter of 2021 and was above the 64 cents a share expected by Wall Street analysts. Revenue of $11.1 billion was higher than the $10.5 billion projected by Wall Street.
October 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
On Monday on my subscription JubakAM.com site, I made Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY) the eighth pick in my Special Report: 9 Picks to Make Money in This Bear Market and said that I would add it to the Jubak Picks Portfolio today. This is what I wrote in my Special Report: “This isn’t a Fed pick, an economic growth pick, or a Bear Market bottom pick. It’s a straightforward U.S.-China trade war pick
October 10, 2022 | AAPL, AMD, ASML, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, TSLA |
If you liked the Trump administration’s trade war with China, you’ll love the Biden administration’s new, more dangerous, escalated version. Rather than slapping tariffs on Chinese goods, and inviting retaliatory tariffs by China on American products, the Biden administration war limits the same of advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment to Chines companies. The action is aimed straight at the heart of China’s efforts to build its own chip industry. And it plays right into a belief, stoked by China’s President Xi Jinping, that China is the victim of a Western plot to prevent the country’s rise to its rightful place in the global order. And the opening blows in this trade war come just as President Xi aims to be installed as China’s newest preeminent leader with a status near that of Mao. I don’t know what the retaliation from China will be, but it is unlikely to stop with a few restrictions on how U.S. companies, such as Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) operate in China. The situation is so dangerous because it is so uncertain and so open-ended.
October 5, 2022 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
After the market close on October 5, Costco Wholesale (COST) reported that sales for September had climbed 10.1% to $21.46 billion. Total same-store sales rose 8.5% in September, beating Wall Street’s estimate of 6.3% growth.
October 4, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
I added Freyr Battery to my 10 Perfect Stock Special Report today. Tomorrow I’m adding the stock to my Jubak Picks Portfolio with a target price of $21 a share. This is what I wrote about Freyr in my Special Report.
October 4, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
Yesterday I added General Motors to my 10 Perfect Stock Picks Special Report. Here’s what I wrote in that Special Report on the buy.
October 3, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Is there such a thing as a perfect stock? Depends. Not a chance, if you mean a stock that will be perfect in every market for every time period. No way, if you mean a stock that will go up steadily from the day you buy it. Nah, if you mean a “Buy and Hold Forever Stock.” But there are stocks that are “perfect” for a specific kind of market. And there are stocks that are “perfect” for a specific holding period. And there are stocks that are “perfect” for investors with a specific portfolio goal. And in this Special Report, I’m going to give you 10 of those Perfect Picks.
