Jubak Picks
July 25, 2026 | AA, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LYSDY, Mid Term, MP, VALE |
Countries have “noticed” the way that Iran has been able to turn the Strait of Hormuz into a choke point for commodities ranging from oil to liquefied natural gas to helium to fertilizer to benzene. (Yes, benzene–a crucial foundation for aspirin and acetaminophen. I can honestly say that before this war I’d never thought of the petrochemical foundation for so many drugs.). The effect is easily summarized: Any move that creates a commodity chokepoint is worth considering. And any project that promises that a country can avoid a commodity chokehold will get built. Even if the economics didn’t make any sense–before the war.
The strategy for investors looking to profit from the rush to chokepoints is, in my opinion, to look for “manufactured” chokepoints. And government industrial policy efforts to prevent the formation of this kind of chokepoint.
July 18, 2026 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, ASML, AVGO, Daily JAM, GOOG, INTC, Jubak Picks, MRVL, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which stacks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has moved into Bear market territory with a drop of more than 20% from its June 22 high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is marginally short of the 29% drop that defines a Bear market. The pain was by no means equally distributed.
July 5, 2026 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks |
You can see it–maybe–if you carefully squint at the year-to-date chart for gold. From $5311 an ounce on March 2, the price of gold has moved consistently lower to 4009 on June 24. And then, it looks to me, gold has formed a low ar that level. The precious metal closed at $4,126 an ounce on July 2. On the fundamentals this “should” be a bottom too. Inflation, gold’s best friend rumbles along at 3% to 4%, depending on the index you follow. The U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled that it sees inflation moderating with the end of the Iran war. (Oh, it’s over? I must have missed the press release.) And that, therefore, there’s no need to raise interest rates at the July or September meetings. More central banks than ever expect to increase their gold reserves, a sign one of the key forces behind bullion’s record-breaking rally remains intact despite this year’s pullback. In a survey of 74 central banks, 45% said they plan to buy in the coming year, the biggest-ever share in data collected by the World Gold Council and YouGov Plc since 2018. Just one said it planned to cut holdings, the WGC said in a report Tuesday. Even the big recent drop in oil prices may be more of a plus than a minus for gold. Since while lower oil prices are likely to damp inflation, lower oil prices also relieve the pressure on the currencies of oil importing countries, such as India, to sell gold to defend their currencies.
June 30, 2026 | ABBV, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts |
I’ve owned shares of AbbVie (ABBV) in my Diividend Portfolio since January 29, 22020. The gain during that period through the close on June 30 has been 201% plus dvidends. (The stock currently pays a 2.72% forward dividend.)
Besides my adding to me position in the Dividend Portfolio, I will adding a new position in my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow, July 1.
The challenge during most of that time has been how the drug maker would find the revenue growth to make up for the gradual erosion of revenue from its blockbuster Humira as that drug came off patent. AbbVie has done a good job in that transition and the deal to buy Apogee Therapeutics for $10.9 billion will bolster its portfolio of anti-inflammatory drugs amid growing competition for its best-selling Skytizi.
June 22, 2026 | BEPC, CCJ, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
The Iran war isn’t over. We’re either moving into a new extended cease fire or a step back toward heightened conflict or a negotiated honest-to-goodness peace agreement. It’s too early to tell, in my estimation. But it’s not too early for countries and political leaders to be drawing their own conclusions about the lessons of this war. I think those conclusions are likely to result in a revolution in the global commodity economy. And it’s not too early to reorder your portfolio to reflect those lessons. In this Part 1 post, I’m going to outline the two major lessons that countries are drawing from the Iran war, sketch in the ways that those conclusions are going to change the market for two commodities (LNG and uranium)–and related markets–and finally give you a few preliminary stock buys and sells that reflect my understanding of the likely shape of this commodity revolution. In Part 2 next week I’m going to apply this same framework to solar and also look at the likely new commodity choke points as more countries apply the lesson of the Hormuz blockade to other commodities.
June 17, 2026 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Long Term, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
Microsoft (MSFT) has abandoned plans to lease roughly $3 billion in cloud computing infrastructure from Oracle (ORCL). The collapse of the multi-year deal highlights how AI titans are increasingly forced to negotiate massive infrastructure-sharing agreements win an effort to work around bottlenecks in compute capacity and GPU chip supply.
And while one rain trop doesn’t make a hurricane, the collapse of this deal–and the vagueness of company explanations–are sure to focus even more attention on growth projections for AI companies.
June 3, 2026 | Daily JAM, GLD, Jubak Picks |
India’s central bank looks to be selling a portion of its gold holdings protect the rupee, according to an analysis by Bloomberg.
May 27, 2026 | AMZN, Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is poised to become the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth over the next two years, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs projects that beneficiaries of AI infrastructure investment will account for roughly half of S&P 500 earnings per share growth in both 2026 and 2027. That’s two years–for the math challenged.
May 25, 2026 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, Morning Briefing, Stock Alerts |
What do the stocks of AI chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) and weight-loss drug leader Eli Lilly (LLY) have in common? Their lofty valuations depend on years and years of fast growth.
At a trailing 12-month price to earnings ratio, Nvidia isn’t especially expensive–as ling as it can grow revenue at the 81% rate projected for 2027 or even the 39% projected for 2028. The worry–what makes investors nervous about Nvidia is evidence of increasing competition in the are for AI chips. At some point, the worries go, chips from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Chinese competitors have to start taking market share. How much and when? boom the important issues.
Same with shares of Eli Lily. At a trailing 12-month price to earning ratio of 37 an a forward PE of 28 on the next 12-month’s earnings per share, Eli Lilly isn’t expense as ling as it can keep growing revenue at the 31% projected for 2026. But revenue growth is projected at just 15% for 2027 on analysts belief that patent expirations and competition in the market for GLP-1 weight loss drugs will slow growth.
It’s important for investors in Eli Lilly that growth for 2027 and beyond comes in higher than that.
And the company’s recent earning report band its announcement of the preliminary trial results for a new weight loss drug offer reason for optimism.
May 22, 2026 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
India’s central bank intervened to shore up the struggling rupee as high oil prices pushed the currency to a record low. The Reserve Bank of India sold small amounts of dollars in the onshore currency market on Wednesday, traders told Bloomberg. The rupee slipped to an all-time low of 96.9650 against the dollar.
May 6, 2026 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PAAS |
Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported earnings and revenue on Tuesday that met my goals for a silver miner in this market. My premise is that the silver stock to buy is one that combines expanding production with declining production costs. Which is exactly what Pan American Silver reported.
May 4, 2026 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Long Term |
Watch what they do and not what the say is always good advice for investors trying to figure out what’s going on in the financial markets.
Sure, the Federal Reserve has said that it has a target of no more than 2% inflation. And Jerome Powell & Co. has professed their disappointment that inflation remains so stubbornly elevated above that target,
Since the start of the year, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by $170 billion. That translates to a staggering $510 billion annualized run-rate. The Fed is currently expanding its balance sheet at almost 8% a year during a period when the U.S. economy is supposedly not in a recession.At the same time, U.S. money supply M2 grew by $1.65 trillion in 2025, which is roughly 6.3% over the year.
