Jubak Picks
June 1, 2023 | AMAT, AMD, CVS, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, EMR, GOOG, ILMN, Jubak Picks, Long Term, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, TSM, Volatility |
Artificial intelligence really is a paradigm-breaking, transformative technology. Right now, investors are so enthusiastic about the sector, especially the obvious leader Nvidia (NVDA), that we’re looking at a potential bubble that will collapse with much gnashing of teeth and I-told-you-so “wisdom” casting doubt on the reality of the entire endeavor. I think a bubble is indeed possible. Nvidia did trade at a trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 196 on May 31, after all. But I think you do want to own the sector now–because the breaking of the bubble, if it does break is, in my opinion, two quarters or more away. And you want to own the sector for the long run–say, 10 years or more–because it is such a game changer for so much of the economy. But what to own? I’ve put together a list of the 10 stocks that I think are the best way to participate in the AI gold rush.
May 8, 2023 | Daily JAM, DVN, FANG, Jubak Picks, PXD, Videos |
This week’s Trend of the Week is Where is All That Oil Cash Going to Go? The likely answer: the Permian Basin and acquisitions. Oil companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM) are putting so much cash into the bank, they don’t know what to do with it. Exxon Mobil had $32.7 billion in cash in the bank. With little debt, and plenty left over after capital spending, dividends, and buybacks, the company is left with a tremendous amount of cash. Historically, extra cash could be used in oil exploration, which could take 5-15 years. In a global warming economy, that doesn’t make sense since we don’t know where oil prices and demand will be in the years ahead. The better option is acquisitions. One of the companies Exxon is rumored to be targeting is Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) for their assets in the Permian Basin. Chevron (CVX) is in a similar position as Exxon and you can expect them to be in the market for Permian companies as well. Other Permian Basin companies that are ripe for being acquired are Devon Energy (DVN) and Diamondback Energy (FANG). I already have PXD and DVN in a portfolio in my JubakPicks Portfolio, and I’ll now be adding FANG as well.
May 4, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LVS, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS). Is Macau gaming the best way to play China? I would say yes. News out of China is that it’s clearly reaccelerating and will easily hit 5% economic growth in the current quarter. The economy is reopening and growth is up and Macau, as a gaming center, is benefitting in a pure Covid reopening story. Total gaming revenue in Macau was up 247% year over year in March and 450% in April. Normally I’d look at MGM International to play Macau, but their Las Vegas presence outweighs their China presence, and at this moment, I’m looking for something with less presence in Las Vegas. Although the name may suggest otherwise, Las Vegas Sands has a much bigger presence in China and is in the process of selling their Las Vegas assets in order to invest more in Singapore and Macau. This is a good place to play China gaming as the country accelerates and I’ll be adding it to my JubakPicks Portfolio with a target price of $70 a share.
April 26, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
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April 20, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, NEM, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM). Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner but the stock hasn’t benefited very much from the recent rallies in gold. Unlike Barrick Gold, Newmont is not a low-cost miner, but it does have huge reserves as well as promising joint ventures–including one with Barrick in Nevada. The company is growing production and produced about 2.2 million ounces of gold in 2022, with production going up to a forecasted 2.7 million by 2027. Newmont likely hasn’t seen a huge rally yet because of the cost of energy. Mining gold takes a lot of energy and with recently higher gas/diesel prices, costs of mining and production have gone up and margins have been squeezed. However, looking forward to mid or late 2023, those margins will, in my opinion, start to look a lot better. If we hit a recession while inflation remains relatively high and energy prices come down, Newmont will benefit from lower costs and recession gold rallies. I would call Newmont my second choice gold stock to Barrick. Morningstar rates Newmont at 10% undervalued right now. This is a good time to buy and look for it to outperform in the second half of 2023.
April 13, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MRNA, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA). You’re familiar with Moderna as the developer of one of the RNA-Covid vaccines. The stock market has been treating the stock like the company was a one-trick pony with sales dependent totally on the demand for Covid-19 vaccines. But I think of the MRNA Covid-19 vaccine as proof of the validity of Moderna’s technology platform which takes a lot of the risk out of what is still an early-stage biotech stock. The company now has 36 other vaccines in its development pipeline using the mRNA technology that was proven effective in the Covid vaccines. Around six of those are expected to launch in the next few years. The huge jump in revenue from the Covid vaccines “shot” the stock up around 900%. (The company’s revenue was $155 million in 2018, and at the end of 2022 its revenue was $19.3 billion.) But more recently, the shares have been in a steep decline and Morningstar now calls them 40% undervalued. The stock has pulled back further in the last week or so on news that results from some trials have not been positive enough to lead to early termination of the trials. The huge revenue–and the resulting profitability–from the Covid-19 vaccines put Moderna in a unique position for such a young biotech company. They’re able to fund their own research, clinical trials, and the development of new products internally. That means the company doesn’t have to sell off a share of future profits and revenue on new drugs or vaccines in order to fund research and development. I’ll be adding the stock to my Jubak Picks portfolio tomorrow, April 14.
April 11, 2023 | Daily JAM, INTC, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
I will sell Intel (INTC) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow, April 12. The position was up 14.55% as of the close on April 11 since I added it on February 8, 2023.
April 10, 2023 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
Shipments by all PC makers slumped 29% in the first quarter to a level below that in early 2019, according to tech market analysts at IDC. Lenovo Group and Dell Technologies registered drops of more than 30%, while HP (HPQ) was down 24.2%. No major brand was spared from the slowdown, with Asustek Computer Inc. rounding out the top 5 with a 30.3% fall. But Apple (AAPL)let the plunge with personal computer shipments down by 40.5% in the first quarter.
April 6, 2023 | Daily JAM, DVN, GDX, GOLD, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Long Term, MSFT, PXD, SCHW |
I will add this post to the end of my post of the entire Special Report today. I’m also posting it here, however, as a stand-alone so you will get notice in your email box that Move #4 has gone up. Here’s what I posted for Move #4.
April 5, 2023 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, DVN, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Just in case there are readers who don’t watch my videos, but do follow my picks. Today, April 5, I added Devon Energy (DVN) to my Jubak Picks, Dividend, and Volatility Portfolios.
April 5, 2023 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Today’s Quick Pick is Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN). On Sunday, OPEC+ said it’s going to cut oil production by about 1 million barrels a day. The following Monday saw a surge in oil prices. My take on this? If you’re going to bet on oil, do it now, before the question of whether or not we’ll have a recession starts to hang over the sector. Devon Energy has a similar playbook to Pioneer Resources, a stock I already own. Devon has introduced a variable dividend (50% of post-dividend cash flow) alongside their set dividend payout. About 70% of Devon’s resources are in the Permian Basin, the lowest-cost oil resource in the U.S. oil shale sector. At the moment, the forward yield is about 9.4%, but it is variable and could go up and down. If oil prices continue to go up and Devon decides to produce more oil, cash flow will go up with it. I’ll be adding this to three of my portfolios–Jubak Picks, Dividend, and Volatility to get one more bump in this commodity before we start to worry about an upcoming recession.
April 4, 2023 | AG, Daily JAM, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
Gold for June delivery closed at 2039.00 an ounce on the Comex today. That’s not too far away from the all-time record high of $2,070 an ounce. The move above $2,000 an ounce and any breach of the record at $2070 could trigger a rally as traders short gold buy to cover positions. That could well be true, but I’d note that this forecast of a gold rally is coming from traders long gold who are trying to talk a rally into being.
