Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported earnings and revenue on Tuesday that met my goals for a silver miner in this market. My premise is that the silver stock to buy is one that combines expanding production with declining production costs. Which is exactly what Pan American Silver reported.
Watch what they do and not what the say is always good advice for investors trying to figure out what’s going on in the financial markets.
Sure, the Federal Reserve has said that it has a target of no more than 2% inflation. And Jerome Powell & Co. has professed their disappointment that inflation remains so stubbornly elevated above that target,
Since the start of the year, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by $170 billion. That translates to a staggering $510 billion annualized run-rate. The Fed is currently expanding its balance sheet at almost 8% a year during a period when the U.S. economy is supposedly not in a recession.At the same time, U.S. money supply M2 grew by $1.65 trillion in 2025, which is roughly 6.3% over the year.
Could stocks move higher from here even though they’re more expensive than a year ago? Of course.
Could they gain another 29.8% in a year? It’s possible. But it strikes me as unlikely.
That sums up the current market puzzle very neatly, I think. Stocks are expensive and don’t seem to be pricing in potential very real risks. But stocks have returned almost 30% in the last year. And it’s very hard to walk away from the possibility of that kind of gain. Even if it is unlikely. What I’d suggest right now is a stock market strategy that takes into account both a solid appreciation of the excessive valuations in this market (along with a failure to price in risk), and the realities of investor psychology.
It is too difficult to go cold turkey on stocks right now and move 100% out of the market. On the other hand, you should be moving to reduce your exposure to the riskiest parts of the market–high multiple stocks–and raising your exposure to counter-cyclical or non-cyclical stocks. In this post, I’m going to give you 10 stock picks to use in executing that kind of strategy–a way to stay in the market and yet to reduce your risks.
This week brings a huge earnings test for AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META and MSFT. I’m going to sell Microsoft out of my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio on Monday, April 27, ahead of the earnings report. That position is up 319% since I initiated it on June 14., 2018. I am keeping Microsoft in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. That position is up 40% since I initiated it on January 18, 2022.
I don’t know how long the weakness in gold might last–gold is down 8.4% from the start of the Iran war on February 28 through the close on April 20. Or how big any further decline from here might be-—my crystal ball is not doing a bang-up job of predicting the twists, turns, ultimatums, and reversals in this crisis. But I would once again use the short-term selling as an opportunity to build long-term gold positions. On the assumption that you’ve got a basic gold position in place, I’m going to look beyond ETFs that hold physical gold and silver to suggest two gold mining stocks that have significant leverage to the price of gold.
I already own shares of Cheniere Energy (LNG) in my Jubak Picks Portfolio and my Volatility Portfolio. I will add another position in my 50 Stocks Portfolio on on Monday, March 23.
Today I’m adding Costco Wholesale (COST) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
I’m looking for stocks of companies that might actually benefit from the effects of the war with Iran on the U.S. economy. There aren’t many candidates. Costco is one. (Walmart is another but it’s already in the Jubak Picks Portfolio where it’s up 27% since my pick on August 25.)
On Monday Qatar’s state-owned energy company said it would halt production of liquefied natural gas, cutting off a large share of the world’s supply of the fuel. Qatar supplies 18% of global LNG.
No one knows, of course, how the attack on Iran will play out in either the medium or long term. The energy and financial markets were closed for the weekend, so they’ve given us relatively subdued feedback on the events. It will be “interesting” to see on Monday how the markets price in the risks to global oil and natural gas supplies. The war is taking place against a backdrop of low and falling oil and natural gas prices on abundant supplies. As I look ar the early market price reactions, though, one “fact” pops out at me. If you’re looking to profit from a speculation on the worst case scenario–by which I mean the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipments of oil and natural gas, natural gas looks to be the most lucrative bet on this scenario.
China’s AI disruptor DeepSeek is preparing to introduce a new model. Reuters had initially reported that DeepSeek would launch its next‑generation model “V4,” focused on coding, in mid‑February 2026. Rumors now peg the expected release window as “Q1–Q2 2026.” The mid‑February window has passed but context‑window changes and internal benchmark leaks signal that V4 is close. And it will be a BIG DEAL for AI competitors AND ai chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA). A big enough deal that the V4 release will move the entire tech sector and quite probably the stock market as a whole.
In a recent post I pointed out that all of the laws of supply and demand were aligned to push the price of gold higher. Using that same framework, it’s clear why silver, as spectacular as a run as it had in 2025—up nearly 160% on the year—and in the early days of 2026—up another 20% through January 20—isn’t as good a future bet for investors and traders as gold. The big difference between gold and silver going forward is the role of the world’s central banks.
February The argument for owning gold for the long term comes down to simple supply and demand. Unlike the world’s supply of fiat currencies where supply will soar as the wold’s indebted countries–just about everyone–print more money to pay their bills, the global supply of gold is increasing by just 1% a year or less. Unlike demand for the U.S. dollar, world’s fiat money flagship currency–where every day more investors want to hedge their risks by diversifying out of the dollar, demand for gold from global central banks is climbing and Wall Street strategist have modestly but noticeably increased their recommended allocation to gold for individual portfolios.
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