LLY
February 25, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, NVO |
Compounding pharmacies aren’t giving up their ability to create cheaper knockoff versions of Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) GLP-1 weight loss drugs without a fight. On Friday the u.s. food and Drug Administration found that the shortage for Novo’s blockbuster GLP-1 treatments Ozempic, approved for diabetes, and Wegovy, approved for obesity, was over and that compounders would have to stop producing them in the next 60 to 90 days. Today,the Outsourcing Facilities Association (OFA) and Texas-based FarmaKeio Superior Custom Compounding filed a lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Fort Worth, Texas
November 26, 2024 | Daily JAM, LLY, Morning Briefing, NVO |
The Biden administration has proposed making GLP-1 weight loss drugs free for low-income people and retirees who qualify as obese. Expensive drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound, which cost $1,000 a month, would be covered for the 40% of the U.S. population who qualify as obese. Currently, the federal plans only cover the drugs when patients have other conditions caused by obesity, such as diabetes, heart disease. The leading drugs are made by Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO). Shares of Eli Lilly were up 4.55% today while Novo Nordisk rose 1.50%. The incoming Trump Administration will have to decide whether to move ahead with the plan. You can either think of this as a smart piece of health care policy or an effort to jam up an incoming administration that already faces challenges in devising coherent policy on healthcare. I go with the “jam ‘em up” theory myself.
November 6, 2024 | COP, CVS, Daily JAM, LLY, Special Reports, UNG |
When I posted the previous version of this Special Report back on September 30, I wrote: “I don’t know which candidate will win the election. Right now the polls are within the margin of error on the national level–and even tighter in the seven battleground states that will likely decide the election. But I do know the results on November 5 will move stocks. Some right off the bat even before the results are certified. And more significantly as a new administration clarifies its policy views and takes office.” That has changed just a bit with last night’s victory by Donald Trump. We do know who won and will be the President come January 20. And we do know whose policies will move stocks and the financial markets in general. So let’s see if I can bring my picks and strategic advice up to date.
July 25, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, NVO, Stock Alerts, VKTX |
Viking Therapeutic (VKTX) has announced that its subcutaneous obesity drug candidate VK2735 is moving into Phase III development. Viking is currently preparing for an end-of-Phase II meeting with the Food & Drug Administration later this year. Just as significant–maybe more?–pharmacokinetics data for VK2735 continues to show the potential for once-a-month dosing. The market-leading GLP diabetes/weight-loss drugs from Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) require weekly injections. That dosing advantage gives VK2735 the potential to be the best-in-class obesity drug. (Viking is also at work on an oral version of the drug.)
March 26, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, NVO, Stock Alerts, VKTX |
First, it was Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) on the attack with trial results that shows its GLP-1 dibetes/weight loss drug out performing current leader of the pack drugs fro Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY). On the news Viking soared.
Then Novo Nordisk struct back with data of its own showing progress on an oral formulation of its rugs. (All existing GLP-1 drugs are delivered by injection.) That cratered Viking Shares. Now, March 26, Viking has released new Phase 1 trial data from a multiple ascending dose study of the oral version of VK2735, a dual agonist of the glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptors.
March 7, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, NVO |
Yes, I know this is my third post (plus video) on diabetes/weight-loss drug leader Novo Nordisk (NVO) in three weeks. But the company keeps pumping out research updates that keep powering the stock higher. Think of this as a momentum stock where the momentum comes from the R&D pipeline and not moves in the share price. (The last post was https://jubakam.com/another-reason-t…-success-for-glp/) Today, the company reported early results for a next-generation oral weight loss drug called amycretin, showing a 13.1% weight loss after 12 weeks. That’s a bigger weight-loss than either Novo Nordisk’s own Wegovy or Eli Lilly’s (LLY) competing drug Zepbound. Shares of Novo Nordisk were up 8.9% today to $135.85. I added them to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio on February 20. The position is up 11.91% since then.
March 5, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, Morning Briefing, NVO, Volatility |
Back on February 20, I posted a video recommending a buy of Novo Nordisk (NVO). In the video, “Buy GLP-1,” I said that the stock, along with Eli Lilly (LLY) was riding the momentum of increased sales of GLP-1 drugs, originally developed to treat diabetes, as weight-loss drugs. Buy, I said, despite the huge run-up in the shares, because new trials and analysis of existing data were pointing to expanded uses for the drugs. Today, Novo Nordic announced exactly the kind of news that I had talked about.
February 28, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
Yesterday, February 28, development-stage biotech Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) announced results from a Phase 2 training of its GLP-1 weight-loss drug candidate that that showed the potential for the VK2735 compound two move to be best in class in the $36.5 billion (revenue) market for GLP diabetes-control and weight-loss drugs. I will add Viking Therapeutic to my Volatility Portfolio and to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio today, February 29, with a target price of $150.
February 20, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, Videos |
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November 9, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY, Stock Alerts |
On Wednesday the Food and Drug Administration approved Mounjaro from Lilly, as an obesity drug, after clinical trials showed that patients lost an average of 18% of their body weight. The drug will be marketed as Zepbound in the obesity market. This puts Lilly into direct competition with the wildly popular Wegovy weight-loss drug from Novo Nordisk (NVO)
June 29, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY |
This week’s Quick Pick is Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY). The worldwide explosion in diabetes has increased the demand for medicine to prevent the illness from advancing from Type 2 to Type 1 diabetes. In developing these drugs, it’s become clear these Type 2 diabetes prescriptions have also excellent potential for weight loss. Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide drug, the market leader, has been FDA approved for both uses and is marketed as Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for weight loss. Eli Lilly’s competitor drug, Mounjaro, is already approved by the FDA for Type 2 diabetes. That drug is likely to be approved for weight loss as well and looks like it may work even better than Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. illy’s second diabetes drug, Retatrutide, is still in the pipeline and just reported Phase clinical results showed a 24% loss of body weight after 11 months. Th drug still has to go into Phase III trials but it is likely to be approved. Lilly’s stock has a 1% yield and is trading at a trailing 12 month PE of 72, so this stock is not cheap. I’ve had this stock in my Jubak Picks portfolio since November 20, 2022 and it’s up about 34% since then, but I believe we can expect another 20% to the upside with the approval of their drugs in the pipeline. The relatively low risk with a likely 20% return makes this a very attractive stock to me.
September 28, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LLY |
Shares of Eli Lilly (LLY), a pick for my Jubak Pick’s Portfolio in a post yesterday, are up 8.89% today as of noon New York time, September 28, on news that an experimental Alzheimer’s drug from Biogen (BIIB) and Japan’s Eisai(ESALY) slowed cognitive and functional decline by 27 percent in a clinical trial. Today shares of Biogen are up 38.07% and shares of Eisai are up 62.6% on the news. Why the pop in Lilly? As I explained in my post yesterday, Lilly has its own Alzheimer’s drug in development and positive results out of Biogen/Eisai are thought to be a positive for that drug too.
