July 21, 2026
What You Need to Know Today:
Oil prices? Is it deja vu all over again or something worse?
U.S. gasoline prices at the pump climbed back above the $4-a-gallon mark as the Middle East conflict intensified. Regular unleaded gasoline averaged $4.003 a gallon, according to daily prices posted by the American Automobile Association. Diesel has once again climbed above $5 a gallon.Heating oil futures jumped as much as 3.4% on Monday. For now, the strain on American households isn’t yet as bad as it was in May, when average pump prices were in excess of $4.50 a gallon. But there’s a good chance that things will get worse from here. Because this isn’t simple a replay of earlier stages in the oil price spike.
Oil prices? Is it deja vu all over again or something worse?
U.S. gasoline prices at the pump climbed back above the $4-a-gallon mark as the Middle East conflict intensified. Regular unleaded gasoline averaged $4.003 a gallon, according to daily prices posted by the American Automobile Association. Diesel has once again climbed above $5 a gallon.Heating oil futures jumped as much as 3.4% on Monday. For now, the strain on American households isn’t yet as bad as it was in May, when average pump prices were in excess of $4.50 a gallon. But there’s a good chance that things will get worse from here. Because this isn’t simple a replay of earlier stages in the oil price spike.
As expected, Houthis say they will block oil traffic in the Red Sea
“The Houthis, the Iran-backed armed faction in Yemen, said they would impose a blockade on Saudi ships entering and leaving the Red Sea, threatening to open a new front in the Middle East conflict and raising the pressure on volatile global energy markets.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, for the week ahead expect…
We’re used to talking about momentum markets only when stocks are going up. And investors buy more shares because they think yesterday’s gains will be repeated tomorrow. But momentum can work on the downside too when investors think that yesterday’s losses will be repeated tomorrow. And that’’s where I think we are after last week’s selling pushed the chip sector–and especially AI-related chip stocks into a Bear market 20% decline. At some point I expect a shift in sentiment. Investors will say, again, that the selling is a buying opportunity. If memory chip maker Micron Technology was a buy on June 22 as it climbed to an all-time high, isn’t it a bargain at 30% lower? I mean, Come on! the AI revolution isn’t ALL hype, right? But to get that change in sentiment, I think we need a catalyst or two to switch the focus from what might go wrong–a further escalation of the Iran war, fear of an interest rate surprise from a Federal Reserve that suddenly sounds very hawkish on inflation, more AI Bad news from China–to what might go surprisingly right.
Chip stocks move into bear market–what’s next?
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which stacks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has moved into Bear market territory with a drop of more than 20% from its June 22 high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is marginally short of the 29% drop that defines a Bear market. The pain was by no means equally distributed.
Did 2 oil tankers hit mines and explode in the Strait of Hormuz today?
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is claiming that two oil tankers hit mines and exploded south of the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military is publicly denying that this actually happened. And no independent source has been able to confirm the sinking. Does the truth still matter in this war? Or is it now enough to merely announce an attack in order to paralyze oil traffic in the Strait?
This market is just too damn expensive given the risks–Special Report 10 picks to stay (mostly) invested while cutting your risks
Could stocks move higher from here even though they’re more expensive than a year ago? Of course.
Could they gain another 29.8% in a year? It’s possible. But it strikes me as unlikely.
That sums up the current market puzzle very neatly, I think. Stocks are expensive and don’t seem to be pricing in potential very real risks. But stocks have returned almost 30% in the last year. And it’s very hard to walk away from the possibility of that kind of gain. Even if it is unlikely. What I’d suggest right now is a stock market strategy that takes into account both a solid appreciation of the excessive valuations in this market (along with a failure to price in risk), and the realities of investor psychology.
It is too difficult to go cold turkey on stocks right now and move 100% out of the market. On the other hand, you should be moving to reduce your exposure to the riskiest parts of the market–high multiple stocks–and raising your exposure to counter-cyclical or non-cyclical stocks. In this post, I’m going to give you 10 stock picks to use in executing that kind of strategy–a way to stay in the market and yet to reduce your risks.
Special Report: The Next Big Things and how to invest in them–Part 1 Quantum Computing; Part 2 Nuclear Fusion
A suggested quantum computing portfolio. If you want a piece of this Next Big Thing, but with less risk and less upside than a pure-play quantum stock, I’d suggest Alphabet/Google (GOOG). Among pure plays I’d include D‑Wave Quantum (QBTS), up about 235% year‑to‑date as of late 2025; Rigetti Computing (RGTI), up34% YTD by late December; and IonQ (IONQ), up around 25% year-to-date by late December.
Special Report: 3 Stock Market Bubbles: When will they burst? What to do now? Part 1, the AI bubble, Part 2, the debt market bubble, and Part 3, the cheap money bubble
This is a very difficult stock market. Even as stocks climb to new record highs. On the one hand, even investors who are all in, maybe even overweight to the long side, worry that this rally isn’t sustainable for much longer. By most historical standards valuations are off the charts. I get a steady stream of stories and posts asking whether XYZ stock has climbed to faro fast. Volatility on somedays can be downright scary with relatively minor events leading to big market moves. It’s simply very hard to stay on board this rally. On the other hand, it’s very hard to get off the train. I see lots of Wall Street analysts cutting recommendations from “buy” to “hold” on valuation fears, but I see almost no one saying “sell.” FOMO–fear of missing out–is just too strong. Which is totally understandable. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 25.02% in 2024 and was up another 18.11% in 2025 to date through October 27. Market leaders have racked up even bigger gains. AI chip icon Nvidia (NVDA) was up 171% in 2024 and has gained another 39% in 2025 through October 27. It’s insanely difficult to walk away from those kinds of gains. So what’d you do?
Special Report: How to invest in our 3 energy crises–First 8 picks JCI, BEPC, LNG, SMNEY, GNRC, CCJ, EQNR and GVE
You don’t need the Department of Energy or the Energy Information Administration to tell you we have an energy crisis. (Good thing since they’re shut down with the rest of the Federal government today.) All you need to do is look at your electricity bill. This summer monthly home electric bills jumped in Trenton, New Jersey, for a typical home by $26. In Philadelphia, it increased about $17. And in Columbus, Ohio, it spiked $27. And your monthly bill doesn’t capture the full damage. In California,residential electric rates are up 62% in five years. In Maryland residential rates are up 54% in five years. Most frustratingly–and most importantly for investors–those bills don’t explain the nature of the crisis.
Or more accurately “crises.” Because we’re the middle of three, overlapping and interlocking energy crises. That are playing out on different timeframes that range from NOW to the next 5 to 10 years. It’s that last point that’s critically important for investors. Because to make money–and let’s be clear: like in all crises there’s money to be made investing in these three crises–you’ve got to understand the nature of each crisis and buy into it at the right time. Not so early that you sell in disappointment because your profits haven’t arrived yet. Not so late that all themes tasty profits are gone. This Special Report is about untangling the 3 energy crises, giving you a timeline for investing in each, and then calling out 10 picks you cause to profit from theses crises. Ya, ready?
Special Report: “10 better dividend stocks for a dangerous market”–Part 1 with 6 sells, Part 2 first buy COLD
You remember what The Rolling Stones sing? “You can’t always get what you want”?
In this historically expensive market with a slowing economy, with a falling dollar and a climbing government deficit, where no one knows what the Trump tariffs regime we lookalike in 60 days, and where stagflation where inflation rises even as the economy’s growth rate slows I know what I want: some safe dividend stocks to take some of the risk out of my portfolio, with tasty 8% dividend yields, with solid financials and low debt, and with relatively low exposure to any downturn in the economic cycle. Is that too much to ask? Well, apparently, Yes. Because I can’t find any stocks that fit the bill. Stocks paying anywhere near that yield, for example, come with more rick than I want to take on in this market and this economy. Especially because the last thing I want to do is add high-risk, go-for-broke dividend stocks to the “safe” side of my portfolio. But the Stones go on to advise “but if you try sometimes, you’ll find/You get what you need.” And that’s what this Special Report “10 better dividend stocks for a dangerous market” is all about.
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