July 10, 2025
What You Need to Know Today:
June Fed minutes show big divide on how/when tariffs will affect inflation
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 18 meeting show central bank officials divided by expectations for how and when tariffs might show up in inflation. “While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation,” the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 18 meeting said.
June Fed minutes show big divide on how/when tariffs will affect inflation
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 18 meeting show central bank officials divided by expectations for how and when tariffs might show up in inflation. “While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation,” the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 18 meeting said.
Special Report: What to do with the Magnificent 7 stocks Now? Part 1
Going forward, I’m not all that interested in investing in the “old” Magnificent Seven. But I am interested in investing in a new “enhanced” Magnificent Seven that builds on and increases the exposure of these stocks to the market’s AI enthusiasm.
Trump reveals first 12 countries to get hit with new higher tariffs
The new tariffs begin at 25% for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Kazakhstan. South Africa gets hit with a 30% tariff. Global trading giants Myanmar and Laos face 40% tariffs. The one tariff rate that seems the most disruptive to the existing global economy is the 25% rate imposed on South Korea.
OPEC says “More oil” just before the winter glut
OPEC+ has decided–in a surprise Saturday move–to increase production next month. The timing is actually shocking, coming as the global economy slows from the effects of the Trump tariffs, and coming just ahead of the seasonal winter slump in demand. Eight of the alliance’s key members decided during Saturday’s video-conference to restore 548,000 barrels a day of output in August. It’s a marked step-up from the 411,000-barrel hikes set for May, June and July, which were already triple the volume initially scheduled for those months.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, on a holiday weekend Sunday, for the week ahead expect…
I would not be surprised to see a U.S.- European Union tariff deal announced by the White House in the days before the July 9 expiration of the 90-day pause on the April 2 Liberation Day tariffs. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see U.S. stocks rally on any such announcement. But I wouldn’t chase any rally on tariff news this week. The deals aren’t really deals, but instead frameworks for future deals. The aren’t agreements that set the terms for U.S. trade, but instead manufactured occasions to give President Donald Trump another win or two.
Special Report: What to do with the Magnificent 7 stocks Now? Part 1
Going forward, I’m not all that interested in investing in the “old” Magnificent Seven. But I am interested in investing in a new “enhanced” Magnificent Seven that builds on and increases the exposure of these stocks to the market’s AI enthusiasm.
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
June Fed minutes show big divide on how/when tariffs will affect inflation
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 18 meeting show central bank officials divided by expectations for how and when tariffs might show up in inflation. “While a few participants noted that tariffs would lead to a one-time increase in prices and would not affect longer-term inflation expectations, most participants noted the risk that tariffs could have more persistent effects on inflation,” the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 18 meeting said.
Special Report: What to do with the Magnificent 7 stocks Now? Part 1
Going forward, I’m not all that interested in investing in the “old” Magnificent Seven. But I am interested in investing in a new “enhanced” Magnificent Seven that builds on and increases the exposure of these stocks to the market’s AI enthusiasm.
Trump reveals first 12 countries to get hit with new higher tariffs
The new tariffs begin at 25% for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Kazakhstan. South Africa gets hit with a 30% tariff. Global trading giants Myanmar and Laos face 40% tariffs. The one tariff rate that seems the most disruptive to the existing global economy is the 25% rate imposed on South Korea.
OPEC says “More oil” just before the winter glut
OPEC+ has decided–in a surprise Saturday move–to increase production next month. The timing is actually shocking, coming as the global economy slows from the effects of the Trump tariffs, and coming just ahead of the seasonal winter slump in demand. Eight of the alliance’s key members decided during Saturday’s video-conference to restore 548,000 barrels a day of output in August. It’s a marked step-up from the 411,000-barrel hikes set for May, June and July, which were already triple the volume initially scheduled for those months.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, on a holiday weekend Sunday, for the week ahead expect…
I would not be surprised to see a U.S.- European Union tariff deal announced by the White House in the days before the July 9 expiration of the 90-day pause on the April 2 Liberation Day tariffs. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see U.S. stocks rally on any such announcement. But I wouldn’t chase any rally on tariff news this week. The deals aren’t really deals, but instead frameworks for future deals. The aren’t agreements that set the terms for U.S. trade, but instead manufactured occasions to give President Donald Trump another win or two.
The 2025 spending plan front-loads tax cuts and pushes out spending reductions
If you’re trying to figure out the economic impact of the fiscal 2025 spending bill just passed by Congress,you need to look not just at what’s in the bill, but when its provisions go into effect. Republican politicians who voted for the bill are, after all, politicians. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the bill loaded tax cuts into 2025–before the mid-term election– and pushed out painful cuts into 2026–after the mid-term elections.
The tariff letters start to go out
President Donald Trump said his administration will probably start notifying trading partners Friday, July 4, of new U.S. tariffs on their exports effective August 1. President Trump told reporters that about “10 or 12” letters would go out Friday, with additional letters coming “over the next few days.”“By the ninth they’ll be fully covered,” Trump added.
Yesterday Nike rallied on Vietnam tariff “deal”–today not so much
Nike (NKE) shares closed flat today, July 3, after climbing 4% yesterday on President Donald Trump’s social media post post that the U.S. and Vietnam had reached a trade deal. (Vietnam still hasn’t announced deal saying that there are still lots of details to work out.) I guess today Wall Street figured out that the 20% tariff announced by President Trump, while lower than the threatened 48% tariff, is still double the 8% tariff on non-agricultural products from Vietnam before the second Trump Administration.
Just in case you missed it, Congress just raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion
The spending bill the Congress just sent to President Donald Trump raises the U.S. government’s $36.1 trillion borrowing limit by $5 trillion. Analysts had estimated the so-called X-date, when the Treasury would no longer be able to pay all of its obligations without an increase or suspension of the debt limit, could have occurred at the end of August or in early September. Quick sigh of relief? Well, very quick. The bill will also add $3.4 trillion to the nation’s debt over the next decade, nonpartisan analysts have estimated. You can bet the foreign Treasury buyers–or maybe call them “potential” buyers now–are looking askance at adding $3.4 trillion to the federal debt.
June job report is solid–but not without worries
The U.S. economy created 147,000 jobs in June, close to the healthy pace of job creation in May, the Labor Department reported today, June 3. (The report was released today since tomorrow is a national holiday.) The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Average hourly wages rose 0.2% in June and are up 3.7% this year, more than off setting inflation. But much of the increase was driven by a jump in state and local government employment, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Thursday. Private payrolls rose just 74,000 in June, the least since October and largely due to health care.
Vietnam trade deal is very light on the details
President Donald Trump on Wednesday, July 2, said on Truth Social that he had reached a trade deal with Vietnam that would open up its markets for American goods.
The announcement marks the first agreement with a country that the United States has a trade deficit with. It comes before the July 9 deadline, when a reciprocal tariff rate of 46% was slated to kick in.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the U.S. will apply a 20% tariff to imported Vietnamese goods and a 40% tax on goods from countries, such as China, that are shipped to American buyers via the Southeast Asian nation.
“In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade,” Trump wrote. “In other words, they will ‘OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,’ meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Microsoft to cut another 9,000 jobs to defend margins in AI buildout
Microsoft (MSFT) is laying off slightly less than 4% of its global workforce—around 9,000 workers—in another major round of layoffs.
Tesla: Another it could have been worse quarter
Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 4.97% today, July 2, after deliveries in the second quarter dropped 13% from the second quarter of 2024. Analysts and investors had braced themselves for an even bigger 20% drop. The results–the company delivered 384,122 vehicles during the last three months–leave Tesla in a deep hole if the company hopes to avoid another a second straight annual drop in deliveries.
Looks like no tariff deal with Japan by the July 9 deadline
President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he doubts a trade deal with Japan can be reached by the July 9 deadline. President Trump has set the July 9 deadline for negotiations with plans to reimpose “reciprocal” tariffs after a 90-day pause. If Japan’s suspension is not extended, Japanese goods will face a total tax of 24%, consisting of a 14% surcharge and a 10% baseline rate, according to the April announcement. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump criticized Japan for not accepting imports of U.S. rice, as well as the imbalance in auto trade between the two countries.
Senate bill isn’t as bad as it could have been on clear energy projects
Which into say it’s bad but not the total disaster it could have been.
The fiscal 2025 spending bill the Senate passed Tuesday night contains big cuts to clean energy tax credits.
But it does not contain a proposed excise tax on wind and solar projects.
Apple does a reset on AI
Apple (AAPL) is moving away from a strict reliance on in-house models for Siri and is actively exploring partnerships with third-party AI providers like OpenAI (ChatGPT) and Anthropic (Claude). Apple had focused on
developing proprietary AI technology for its Siri digital assistant.
Despite “deal,” China continues to slow walk rare earth exports
Remember this when you evaluate any trade deals announced before the July 9 tariff deadline. Chinese continues to drag out approval of Western companies’ requests for rare earth magnets–two weeks after China promised the U.S. it would ease restrictions on exports, The Wall Street Journal reported last week.
Tariff suspense! Will higher tariffs go into effect on July 9 or will we see another TACO?
President Trump said in an interview that aired Sunday that he did not plan to extend the July 9 tariff deadline. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned countries that they could face a return to steep “Liberation Day” levels if they don’t finalize a trade deal by July 8. Bessent said countries being “recalcitrant” could see tariff levels jump back up. “We have countries that are negotiating in good faith, but they should be aware that if we can’t get across the line because they are being recalcitrant, then we could spring back to the April 2 levels,” he said during a Bloomberg interview. So how firm is this deadline?
A difference of opinion on gold–which investors are right?
American individual investors are selling gold to take profits after a historic run. Individual investors in Asia, on the other hand, continue their bullion-buying spree.
Let the GDP games–and the market over-reaction– begin
The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025, a steeper decline than the initially reported 0.2% drop, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on June 26. The revised third estimate of first quarter growth was a sharp downturn from the 2.4% growth reported for the fourth quarter of 2024. But did the economy actually slip more deeply into a recession track in the first quarter? Probably not.
Jim’s Stock Alerts
PAASPan American Silver Corp.
TBFProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
IGOViShares International Treasury Bond ETF
FXYInvesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust
UUPInvesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
BABATencent Holdings Limited
TCEHYTencent Holdings Limited
AALAmerican Airlines
FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.
AAPLApple Inc.
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