June 18, 2024

What You Need to Know Today:

Is this the best the most bullish can do? A 3% upside for the S&P 500 by the end of the year?

On Friday, June 14, Goldman Sachs upped its year-end target for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to 5,600 points from 5,200. The idea closed at 5473 on Monday, June 17, for the 30th record high of 2024. Goldman’s forecast puts the investment company at the same expected price level as UBS Investment Bank and BMO Capital Markets. They’r talking about a roughly 3% gain from here through the end of the year. Three points to consider about the forecast.

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Is this the best the most bullish can do? A 3% upside for the S&P 500 by the end of the year?

Is this the best the most bullish can do? A 3% upside for the S&P 500 by the end of the year?

On Friday, June 14, Goldman Sachs upped its year-end target for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to 5,600 points from 5,200. The idea closed at 5473 on Monday, June 17, for the 30th record high of 2024. Goldman’s forecast puts the investment company at the same expected price level as UBS Investment Bank and BMO Capital Markets. They’r talking about a roughly 3% gain from here through the end of the year. Three points to consider about the forecast.

read more
Saw that coming, yes? China launches probe on EU pork imports

Saw that coming, yes? China launches probe on EU pork imports

China has launched an anti-dumping probe on pork imports from the European Union. The move sure looks to me like retaliation for investigations launched by the EU into Chinese subsidies across a range of industries and will impose tariffs on electric car imports from July. The move isn’t small trotters. China is the EU’s biggest overseas market for pork. The trade was valued at $1.83 billion last yea

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Buy the dollar! After Italy’s triumph leading this week’s G7, the country will cause another euro crisis

Buy the dollar! After Italy’s triumph leading this week’s G7, the country will cause another euro crisis

This is Giorgia Meloni’s time in the sun. I hope she enjoys it. The pasta is about to hit the fan. Which will lead the dollar to rally against the euro. Some more. And which gives me Step #6 in my Special Report: 7 Steps to Take Now to Protect Your Portfolio While You Still Reap Market Gains Step #6 in my strategy for protection and profit for the rest of 2024 is Buy the Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP).

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Is this the best the most bullish can do? A 3% upside for the S&P 500 by the end of the year?

Is this the best the most bullish can do? A 3% upside for the S&P 500 by the end of the year?

On Friday, June 14, Goldman Sachs upped its year-end target for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to 5,600 points from 5,200. The idea closed at 5473 on Monday, June 17, for the 30th record high of 2024. Goldman’s forecast puts the investment company at the same expected price level as UBS Investment Bank and BMO Capital Markets. They’r talking about a roughly 3% gain from here through the end of the year. Three points to consider about the forecast.

Saw that coming, yes? China launches probe on EU pork imports

Saw that coming, yes? China launches probe on EU pork imports

China has launched an anti-dumping probe on pork imports from the European Union. The move sure looks to me like retaliation for investigations launched by the EU into Chinese subsidies across a range of industries and will impose tariffs on electric car imports from July. The move isn’t small trotters. China is the EU’s biggest overseas market for pork. The trade was valued at $1.83 billion last yea

Buy the dollar! After Italy’s triumph leading this week’s G7, the country will cause another euro crisis

Buy the dollar! After Italy’s triumph leading this week’s G7, the country will cause another euro crisis

This is Giorgia Meloni’s time in the sun. I hope she enjoys it. The pasta is about to hit the fan. Which will lead the dollar to rally against the euro. Some more. And which gives me Step #6 in my Special Report: 7 Steps to Take Now to Protect Your Portfolio While You Still Reap Market Gains Step #6 in my strategy for protection and profit for the rest of 2024 is Buy the Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP).

One more round in the tech trade war before the election

One more round in the tech trade war before the election

Look for one more round of technology restrictions from the Biden administration before the November elections. The new measures, Bloomberg reports, would target a coming generation of chips expected to power a new wave of innovation in artificial intelligence. The measures being discussed would limit China’s ability to use a cutting-edge chip architecture known as gate all-around, or GAA, sources told Bloomberg. GAA, which promises to make semiconductors more powerful, is just being introduced by chipmakers.

CPI inflation slows slightly keeping alive hopes for rate cut in 2024

CPI inflation slows slightly keeping alive hopes for rate cut in 2024

However, as all dedicated inflation watchers know, the Federal Reserve watches the core inflation rate and not the all-items rate. That index, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month over month in May, after rising 0.3% month over month in April. The core index rose at a 3.4% rate over the last 12 months. While the dip in core inflation is surely encouraging to the Federal Reserve as it fights to get stubborn inflation down to the central bank’s target 2% rate, today’s data show a continued problem the housing prices. The shelter index–the stand-n for housing prices in this index–increased at a 5.4% annual rate in May. That accounted for over two-thirds of the total 12-month increase in inflation.

Moderna finally proves it has a post-Covid vaccine life

Moderna finally proves it has a post-Covid vaccine life

Can you say rollercoaster? In 2022, the biotech company generated sales of nearly $18.9 billion, all of it from sales of its Covid-19 vaccine but it expects revenue of only $4 billion this year. On February 14, 2023, shares sold for $175.62. On $86.04 on February 14, 2024 they traded at $86.04. Today, June 11, they closed at 148.39. I added them to my Volatility Portfolio at $157.10 on April 14,2023. That position was still down 5.54% as of the close on June 11. But I think the rally is still in its early stages. Why the turnaround now?

A big difference of opinion on Apple today–and I’d sell

A big difference of opinion on Apple today–and I’d sell

Traders and investors reacted to Apple’s (AAPO) AI announcements during the first days of the company’s World Wide Developers Conference with enthusiasm today sending the stock up 7.26% in June 11 trading. That’s a new all-time high for the stock. Technology analysts were at best mixed. Their more tepid response set the tone yesterday when the stock dropped 1.9%. Typical was this from KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel in a client note: Apple’s AI enhancements aren’t compelling enough for the average consumer to purchase a new device. I’m with the tech folks on this and today I made Apple a sell in my Special Report: Trade Wars! Trade Wars!

Replace IVV with RSP in Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio

Replace IVV with RSP in Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio

I’m trying to walk a fine line here. I don’t want to eliminate my exposure to the U.S. stock market, the world’s best performer recently, but I would like to take some profits and reduce my exposure to the highest priced stocks in the U.S. market.Switching from the iShares S&P 500 Core ETF (IVV) to the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF will have that effect.

A big difference of opinion on Apple today–and I’d sell

Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead watch out for…

When I was small, one of my favorite songs was The Teddy Bears’ Picnic with its warning refrain, “Don’t go out in the woods today, you’ve in for a big surprise. Not exactly designed as investment guidance, but pretty good investment advice all the same. This week will see two potentially big market moving surprises. Potentially.

So much for that job market slowdown in May

So much for that job market slowdown in May

Employers added 272,000 jobs in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That number was well above the 185,000n projected by economists and even higher above the 175,000 in the April report. The financial markets were disappointed with the news since it pushed out the schedule for an initial interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve.A cut a the July 31 Fed meting has now been priced out by the market. The Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 0.14% today and the NASDAQ Composite dropped 0.23%

Imagine that! In two days of speculative fever a lot of people lost a lot of money on GameStop–and a few made out like bandits.

Imagine that! In two days of speculative fever a lot of people lost a lot of money on GameStop–and a few made out like bandits.

GameStop (GME) stock fell as much as 17% in early trading Friday, June 7, after the video game retailer reported quarterly results that missed analyst estimates and announced a stock sale. The came just hours before a highly anticipated livestream from “Roaring Kitty,” an alias used in the past by bullish retail investor Keith Gill. Yesterday GameStock shares had soared 47% on Thursday after “Roaring Kitty” scheduled a YouTube livestream for noon ET on Friday.

So much for that job market slowdown in May

And now they tell us: A day before the jobs report the BLS tells us that the employment numbers have been wrong

The Federal Reserve has been telling us over and over again that it’d decision on cutting interest rates depends on the data. Among other things, the Fed wants to see a steady slowdown in the employment market reflected in the data before it cuts interest rates. But what if the data have been wrong? For months? Today in its regular Quarterly Cent of Employment and Wages the Bureau of Labor Statistics raised just that possibility.

Slump in factory ISM raises question of how slow is too slow

Slump in factory ISM raises question of how slow is too slow

Be careful what you wish for. Financial markets have been hoping to see signs of a slowing U.S. economy that would let the Federal Reserve begin to cut interest rates. But after the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing gauge fell 0.5 point to 48.7 in May, the weakest in three months, in data released on Monday, investors have begun to worry if this much of a slowdown is a good thing.

Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead don’t expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead don’t expect…

Don’t expect inflation worries to go away. One thing that is keeping inflation worries at full boil is the problem of understanding why inflation has stayed higher than expected for so long. Has something fundamentally changed in the economy? And could that keep inflation higher than expected for longer than now expected? The answer according to a new and disconcerting study from the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank is “yes.” The inflationary impacts from pandemic-era supply chain shocks have largely resolved and the remaining forces that are keeping inflation elevated are “very persistent,” Cleveland Fed economist Randal Verbrugge wrote in a report released on Thursday. Inflation may not return to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target until mid-2027.