November 10, 2026
What You Need to Know Today:
10-year Treasury yield briefly touches 5% again
The yield on the 10-year Treasury—-a key benchmark for mortgages and other types of loans--pushed briefly back over 5% after climbing as much as 14 basis points. The yield closed the day at 4.99%, up 11 basis points on the day. At a Treasury auction Tuesday, the...
10-year Treasury yield briefly touches 5% again
The yield on the 10-year Treasury—-a key benchmark for mortgages and other types of loans--pushed briefly back over 5% after climbing as much as 14 basis points. The yield closed the day at 4.99%, up 11 basis points on the day. At a Treasury auction Tuesday, the...
It’s not the hotter than expected CPI inflation number, but the Fed speak that worries investors
A faster-than-estimated rise in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% from a month earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. That topped projections from economists for a third straight month. Overall all-items inflation rose 0.4% in October. The market wasn’t amused as it saw evidence in the numbers that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at its December 9 meeting and beyond. Short-dated Treasuries bore the brunt of the selling, recording their worst day since April 2025. Two-year yields jumped 19 basis points to 4.75%. Money markets are now pricing in a total of 28 basis points worth of tightening for the Fed’s December meeting, indicating some chance of a half-point move. Equities halted back-to-back gains. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5%. The dollar rose. But the real damage was done in speeches from Fed officials.
Tomorrow’s CPI inflation report will be, well, weird–and it probably won’t move stocks and bonds
Maybe tomorrow’s report on the CPI inflation rate for October will move expecations for an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve at its December 9 meeting. But it seems unlikely. The CME FedWatch tool is projecting 84.5% odds of a 25 basis point increase. That’s up from 74.4% odds a week ago. It would take a major surprise in the Consumer Price Index to change the market’s sentment. We’re not likely to get it for two ressons.
Watch out banks and crypto: Warren, Brown likely to get seats on important financial regulatory committes in new Senate
To me the biggest immediate effects of the Dems taking the Senate are Elizabeth Warren takng over chair of Senate Banking Committee. I can’t wait for the hearings on bank risk regulation and the Trump gutting of Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and consumer financial protections in general.
VIX soars with last week’s selling–and volatility tends to beget more volatility
The VIX (the CBOE S&P 500 volatility idex that measures short-term volatility in S&P 500 options) rose 32.0% last week (November 2–6), gaining 6.22 points from 19.42 on Friday, October 30, to 25.64 on Friday, November 6.
And then there was one–maybe–AI company with a path to profits
In the distant past–you know like maybe 6 months ago, the conventional Wall Street wisdom divided AI stocks into two camps. There was the large group that included exciting shoot-the-moon companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Coreweave that were out on the leading edge of these technologies. They might well capture the future of a global economic revolution. On the basis of that promise, they had raised hundreds of billions of dollars to build out the infrastructure of AI. The big question was Would they generate enough profit to pay the interest on all that debt or would they run out of new investors to cover their losses before they generated substantial profits
And then there was a smaller group of big Internet companies–you know the names: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms–that stood to make huge profits building the “compute” that AI needed, but who had significant other businesses that generated huge positive cash flows so that they could finace their AI build out internally. In the last week or so, however, this wisdom has run into a huge problem.
This market is just too damn expensive given the risks–Special Report 10 picks to stay (mostly) invested while cutting your risks
Could stocks move higher from here even though they’re more expensive than a year ago? Of course.
Could they gain another 29.8% in a year? It’s possible. But it strikes me as unlikely.
That sums up the current market puzzle very neatly, I think. Stocks are expensive and don’t seem to be pricing in potential very real risks. But stocks have returned almost 30% in the last year. And it’s very hard to walk away from the possibility of that kind of gain. Even if it is unlikely. What I’d suggest right now is a stock market strategy that takes into account both a solid appreciation of the excessive valuations in this market (along with a failure to price in risk), and the realities of investor psychology.
It is too difficult to go cold turkey on stocks right now and move 100% out of the market. On the other hand, you should be moving to reduce your exposure to the riskiest parts of the market–high multiple stocks–and raising your exposure to counter-cyclical or non-cyclical stocks. In this post, I’m going to give you 10 stock picks to use in executing that kind of strategy–a way to stay in the market and yet to reduce your risks.
Special Report: The Next Big Things and how to invest in them–Part 1 Quantum Computing; Part 2 Nuclear Fusion
A suggested quantum computing portfolio. If you want a piece of this Next Big Thing, but with less risk and less upside than a pure-play quantum stock, I’d suggest Alphabet/Google (GOOG). Among pure plays I’d include D‑Wave Quantum (QBTS), up about 235% year‑to‑date as of late 2025; Rigetti Computing (RGTI), up34% YTD by late December; and IonQ (IONQ), up around 25% year-to-date by late December.
Special Report: 3 Stock Market Bubbles: When will they burst? What to do now? Part 1, the AI bubble, Part 2, the debt market bubble, and Part 3, the cheap money bubble
This is a very difficult stock market. Even as stocks climb to new record highs. On the one hand, even investors who are all in, maybe even overweight to the long side, worry that this rally isn’t sustainable for much longer. By most historical standards valuations are off the charts. I get a steady stream of stories and posts asking whether XYZ stock has climbed to faro fast. Volatility on somedays can be downright scary with relatively minor events leading to big market moves. It’s simply very hard to stay on board this rally. On the other hand, it’s very hard to get off the train. I see lots of Wall Street analysts cutting recommendations from “buy” to “hold” on valuation fears, but I see almost no one saying “sell.” FOMO–fear of missing out–is just too strong. Which is totally understandable. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 25.02% in 2024 and was up another 18.11% in 2025 to date through October 27. Market leaders have racked up even bigger gains. AI chip icon Nvidia (NVDA) was up 171% in 2024 and has gained another 39% in 2025 through October 27. It’s insanely difficult to walk away from those kinds of gains. So what’d you do?
Special Report: How to invest in our 3 energy crises–First 8 picks JCI, BEPC, LNG, SMNEY, GNRC, CCJ, EQNR and GVE
You don’t need the Department of Energy or the Energy Information Administration to tell you we have an energy crisis. (Good thing since they’re shut down with the rest of the Federal government today.) All you need to do is look at your electricity bill. This summer monthly home electric bills jumped in Trenton, New Jersey, for a typical home by $26. In Philadelphia, it increased about $17. And in Columbus, Ohio, it spiked $27. And your monthly bill doesn’t capture the full damage. In California,residential electric rates are up 62% in five years. In Maryland residential rates are up 54% in five years. Most frustratingly–and most importantly for investors–those bills don’t explain the nature of the crisis.
Or more accurately “crises.” Because we’re the middle of three, overlapping and interlocking energy crises. That are playing out on different timeframes that range from NOW to the next 5 to 10 years. It’s that last point that’s critically important for investors. Because to make money–and let’s be clear: like in all crises there’s money to be made investing in these three crises–you’ve got to understand the nature of each crisis and buy into it at the right time. Not so early that you sell in disappointment because your profits haven’t arrived yet. Not so late that all themes tasty profits are gone. This Special Report is about untangling the 3 energy crises, giving you a timeline for investing in each, and then calling out 10 picks you cause to profit from theses crises. Ya, ready?
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