Did earnings growth for Magnificent 7 stocks falter this quarter? Blame it on META
Earnings growth for the Magnificent 7 stocks that have driven indexes to record highs looks like it’s now flagging even as growth in the wider market picks up.
Earnings growth for the Magnificent 7 stocks that have driven indexes to record highs looks like it’s now flagging even as growth in the wider market picks up.
I’d temper my exuberance a bit. Some of the big bounce today is a result of extremely negative sentiment on AI stocks in the last few weeks and some highly publicized selling by a few big name (Peter Thiel comes to mind). The big test will come in the next few days when wecsee if Nvidia’s earnings can ignite an end of the year rally across the broader market.
Nvidia (NVDA) will report earnings Wednesday November 19, for the quarter that ended on October 25. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 13 analysts’ forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $1.17. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.78. Visible Alpha reports slightly different estimates. Nvidia is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.26 on revenue of $55.28 billion, each up more than 55% from the same time a year ago. Data center revenue, the chips Nvidia sells that other companies buy to train and run a variety of AI models, is expected to grow 61% and make up $49.53 billion of Nvidia’s revenue. I expect the earnings report to move the market. How could it not? It’s almost as if the financial market’s stage director had cleared the boards for Nvidia’s report.
It’s a week of earnings, earning, earnings–and a week of reports NOT dominated by either BIG BANKS or BIG TECH.
what would a week be without an inflation report. And the week will end on Friday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures index report for July. The Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the core PCE was up 2.8% year-over-year in June and 2.7% in May. Another tick higher wouldn’t be good news for investors counting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its September17 meeting. But THE event of the week will be the earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA) after the close on Wednesday, August 27. Nvidia is expected to report earnings for the fiscal Quarter ending July 2025 of $0.94 a share. The reported earnings per share for the same quarter last year was $0.65. Nvidia faces a challenge to beat lofty expectations. Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to deliver 53% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter and expect a 48% increase in earnings.
Today, Monday August 4, a new wave of buy on the dip lifted stocks after last week’s selling on tariff and job fears. The rebound in risk appetite drove the S&P 500 up 1.5%, its biggest rally since May. Almost every major group in the index advanced, and about 85% of stocks in the index closed higher. Tech megacaps, which bore the brunt of the selling last week, led gains on Monday. Nvidia (NVDA) and Meta Platforms (META) climbed more than 3.5%. The Russell 2000 small cap index added 2.1%. S&P 500 earnings are crushing second-quarter expectations-—with earnings growth among companies that have reported so far of 9.1%, triple the pre-earnings-season forecast and with the strongest earnings beat rate since 2021, according to Bloomberg.
In contrast to last week, the coming week is light on economic news–but heavy on earnings. The question for the week: Will what are expected to be strong earnings outweigh anxiety over the economy and tariffs? Remember that last weeks’s very solid earnings weren’t enough to pull stocks into the green in the face of negative news on jobs, inflation and tariffs.Here’s the week’s economic calendar
I expect that little by little, optimistic sentiment will continue to leak out of stock prices.
I don’t know whether this is a result of Wall Street analysts getting new and better crystal balls or whether it’s simply analysts catching up with reality, but Wall Street is definitely getting more cautious on the earnings prospects for 2025.
The most important event of the short week ahead will be Nvidia’S (NVDA) report–after the market close on Wednesday, May 28, of earnings for the fiscal first quarter of 2026 that ended in April 2025.
Expect volatility. Both in Nvidia’s results and in the market where the numbers are likely to move stocks in the tech sector. Going into the report even analyst consensus estimates were volatIle with Zacks Investment Research putting the consensus estimate at 80 cents a share. Matching the higher consensus would mean year over year earnings growth of 44%. Revenue is projected at $43.4 billion. That would be 66% growth year over year.
This week’s quarterly earnings reports from Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META) and Amazon.com (AMZN) face high earnings expectations from Wall Street analysts. Analysts expect the Magnificent Seven-—which also includes Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (MVDA)-—to deliver an average of 15% earnings growth in 2025. That expectation has barely budged since the start of March despite the uncertainty of the Trump tariffs. The four megacaps reporting this week collectively have a nearly 20% weighting in the Standard & Poor’s 500.
I expect more opinions and some additional data on when the Trump tariffs will hit U.S. and global economic growth. And how big the hit will be.