We are rightly skeptical of all of China’s economic data–but we KNOW the unemployment figures are cooked

We are rightly skeptical of all of China’s economic data–but we KNOW the unemployment figures are cooked

Anyone who has followed China’s economy or invested in the country’s stocks is righty skeptical of all of the country’s economic data. The GDP growth numbers, for example, always seem to come in near target even when other measures show that the economy has hit a pothole. But right now, when the country faces a huge employment crisis and millions of migrant workers have no jobs and no safety net and millions of recent college graduates can’t find work, we know that the official numbers are a crock of chicken manure. And how do we know this? Because the Chinese government tells us so.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week India is the Next China

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week India is the Next China

Today’s Trend of the Week is India is the New China–in investing terms. Companies are looking to India for better prices and as a means of side-stepping the China and U.S. technology trade wars. For example, Apple is openly looking for suppliers in India, or asking suppliers to move from China to India, and other companies are following the path as well. Moody’s forecasts India’s GDP growth at 6% to 6.3% this year. I have two suggestions to get in on this trend. The first is the iShares MSCI India ETF, (INDA), which is up 5% year to date, but up 10-11% in the last three months. The other option is HDFC Bank, (HDB), much more volatile that the ETF, but also up 5% year to date and up 8% in the last three months. HDFC Bank is the biggest credit card issuer in India, with 28-29% market share. As wealth in India grows, more and more consumers are getting credit cards for the first time. HDFC also offers alternative platforms and payment technology that will also let the bank ride the technology wave in India’s financial sector. I don’t feel overly enthusiastic about investing in India as a whole. The country has an incredible, increasing reliance on coal, and the economy is riddled with special deals that favor family-run conglomerates with ties to the government. Buying the whole Megillah makes me a little leery, but I like INDA and HDB to get in on sentiment that sees India as the new China for investments.

Is China about to delay the return to work again?

Is China about to delay the return to work again?

Eunice Yoon has tweeted that Hubei province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, is telling factories that workers shouldn't go back to work until March 10.  Yoon is the Beijing Bureau Chief for CNBC. I'm tying to track down any other information on the...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

Any surprises for investors in the Communist Party Congress that starts tomorrow in China?

On the one hand, the results of the 19th Communist Party Congress that begins tomorrow are completely predictable. President Xi Jinping will be elected to a new five-year term and when the dust has cleared from the once-every-five-years turnover of party leaders, he will have tightened his grip on power still further. On the other hand, there’s huge uncertainty over what Xi will do with his power during the next five years.