China sets growth target below 5% for first time since 1991
China has set its target for GDP growth to a record low of 4.5%-5%, the first time since 1991 that the official economic target has dropped below 5%.
Why silver isn’t as good as gold–blame it on China’s solar cell dominance
In a recent post I pointed out that all of the laws of supply and demand were aligned to push the price of gold higher. Using that same framework, it’s clear why silver, as spectacular as a run as it had in 2025—up nearly 160% on the year—and in the early days of 2026—up another 20% through January 20—isn’t as good a future bet for investors and traders as gold. The big difference between gold and silver going forward is the role of the world’s central banks.
Again? Trump announced 100% tariffs on China–today we got a big TACO rally
On Friday President Donald Trump said he would impose a new 100% tariff on goods from China, after Chinese leader Xi Jinping issued new export restrictions on rare earth minerals essential for technology products. Trump made the threat shortly after the markets closed but stocks were already down biggly and on earlier threats to increase tariffs and to cancel a meeting later this month with Xi. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down almost 900 points, and the S&P 500 sank 2.7 percent in the biggest one-day drop since April. But that was Friday. Today after President Trump posted a reassuring message–Don’t worry; everything is going to be fine–on Truth Social stocks recovered and then some. All three major U.S. stock indexes finished with gains: the S&P 500 was up 1.37% for the day; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.93%; and the Nasdaq Composite: ended up 1.7%.​ The markets had decided this was just another TACO dip. (Trump Always Chickens Out.)
Special Report: Trade War! Trade War!! What stocks to sell; what positions to trim (first 4 sells including AAPL)
This Special Report; Trade War! Trade War! gives you my recommendations for what to sell, where to take profits, and where to trim as seen through the lens of a likely global trade war. Here are my choices with my first 3 sells
Moody’s cuts China bond rating on worries over debt load
Moody’s Investors Service cut its outlook for Chinese sovereign bonds to negative from stable today, December 5. The rating company kept tws long-term rating on China’s government bonds at A1. You don’t have to be a forensic accountant to see what worries Moody’s.
We are rightly skeptical of all of China’s economic data–but we KNOW the unemployment figures are cooked
Anyone who has followed China’s economy or invested in the country’s stocks is righty skeptical of all of the country’s economic data. The GDP growth numbers, for example, always seem to come in near target even when other measures show that the economy has hit a pothole. But right now, when the country faces a huge employment crisis and millions of migrant workers have no jobs and no safety net and millions of recent college graduates can’t find work, we know that the official numbers are a crock of chicken manure. And how do we know this? Because the Chinese government tells us so.
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week India is the Next China
Today’s Trend of the Week is India is the New China–in investing terms. Companies are looking to India for better prices and as a means of side-stepping the China and U.S. technology trade wars. For example, Apple is openly looking for suppliers in India, or asking suppliers to move from China to India, and other companies are following the path as well. Moody’s forecasts India’s GDP growth at 6% to 6.3% this year. I have two suggestions to get in on this trend. The first is the iShares MSCI India ETF, (INDA), which is up 5% year to date, but up 10-11% in the last three months. The other option is HDFC Bank, (HDB), much more volatile that the ETF, but also up 5% year to date and up 8% in the last three months. HDFC Bank is the biggest credit card issuer in India, with 28-29% market share. As wealth in India grows, more and more consumers are getting credit cards for the first time. HDFC also offers alternative platforms and payment technology that will also let the bank ride the technology wave in India’s financial sector. I don’t feel overly enthusiastic about investing in India as a whole. The country has an incredible, increasing reliance on coal, and the economy is riddled with special deals that favor family-run conglomerates with ties to the government. Buying the whole Megillah makes me a little leery, but I like INDA and HDB to get in on sentiment that sees India as the new China for investments.
Is China about to delay the return to work again?
Eunice Yoon has tweeted that Hubei province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, is telling factories that workers shouldn't go back to work until March 10. Â Yoon is the Beijing Bureau Chief for CNBC. I'm tying to track down any other information on the...
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
... massive demonstrations in the streets of Hong Kong to continue, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to threaten violent repression of the demonstrations, the official rhetoric of the Beijing government and its official media organs to put even more blame on the...China’s growth slows again–although the decline is very modest
Monthly figures continue to show that China's growth rate is in a very gentle downward trend--the People's Bank doesn't seem to be worried though In May retail sales grew by 8.5% year over year. That was below the 9.6% growth expected by analysts surveyed by...
So how long does China’s Xi intend to stay in power?
Chinese President Xi Jinping has centralized more power in his hands than any of his immediate predecessors. He’s certainly going to be able to pursue his goal of restoring China to its rightful place in the world economic and political order for the rest of his term–and beyond–without significant opposition. Expect an even more assertive China.
Any surprises for investors in the Communist Party Congress that starts tomorrow in China?
On the one hand, the results of the 19th Communist Party Congress that begins tomorrow are completely predictable. President Xi Jinping will be elected to a new five-year term and when the dust has cleared from the once-every-five-years turnover of party leaders, he will have tightened his grip on power still further. On the other hand, there’s huge uncertainty over what Xi will do with his power during the next five years.
Jim’s Stock Alerts
COLDAmericold Realty Trust, Inc.
WMTWalmart Inc.
NVDANVIDIA Corporation
CMICummins Inc.
PAASPan American Silver Corp.
TBFProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF
IGOViShares International Treasury Bond ETF
FXYInvesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust
UUPInvesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
BABATencent Holdings Limited
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