Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

I expect technology earnings to hold center stage as investors and traders wait for the Federal Reserve to speak on interest rates next week on Wednesday, February 1. I think what companies say about expectations for revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2023 will be more likely to move stocks significantly than what they report for the fourth quarter.

Please Watch My New YouTube video: Get Ready for the Tech Earnings Flood

Please Watch My New YouTube video: Get Ready for the Tech Earnings Flood

Today I posted my two-hundred-and-twenty-fifth YouTube video: Get Ready for the Tech Earnings Flood. This week is a bit of a breather. Last week ended with bank earnings and next week begins the flood of tech stock earnings. This week we’ve got Alcoa, which used to be a market indicator but that is no longer the case (thankfully, since Wall Street estimates have them at a loss of $.75 for this quarter.) Netflix is up next on Thursday, January 19. Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) will show +$.44 this quarter versus +$1.33 last year at this time. I think this will likely be the trend with tech stocks. Lower earnings and slower revenue growth year-over-year. 2022 has been tough for technology companies and earnings will likely be lower for the fourth quarter than in 2021. Look closely at future estimates and guidance. Where are they going from here? (the bad news for the fourth quarter is widely expected.) Microsoft will report earnings on January 24, shortly after announcing it will be laying off 10,000 employees. After that, we’ll get Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), on January 26, and then the floodgates open with more and more technology companies announcing earnings and setting the tone for the stock market at the start of 2023.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Caution! Margin Shake-Up Ahead!

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Caution! Margin Shake-Up Ahead!

Today I posted my two-hundred-and-twenty-second YouTube video: Caution! Technology Margin Shake-Up Ahead!

This starts off as an Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) story. Apple recently announced that it would be moving away from using Broadcom (AVGO) chips for Wifi and Bluetooth in its iPhones, and begin using its own chips in 2023. This will of course make for better margins for Apple and speed up the company’s ability to implement new technology. This is a big blow for Broadcom which relies on Apple for 20% of its revenue. Apple also announced it’ll be moving away from QUALCOMM as they project it will have Apple chips to replace the QUALCOMM modem chips by late 2024-2025. (We’ve heard this before. And Apple had to call off the switch because of technology glitches.) You can expect more technology (and other) companies to shake up their own product designs and supply chains as they look at inflation and costs. Corporate profits have been at historic highs protecting profit margins at current levels won’t be easy.

Apple’s plans for AR headset point to fewer product launches than usual in 2023

Apple’s plans for AR headset point to fewer product launches than usual in 2023

News, rumor, and speculation from the Consumer Electronics Show point to a second half of 2023 launch for Apple’s (AAPL) AR “metaverse” headset. Apple has been “launching” this high-performance AR headset since 2017 but plans for a launch were put off in 2020, 2021, and 2022. The launch has even slipped in 2023 from plans to introduce the headset in January with the product shipped later in 2023. But now it looks like a spring announcement

Apple takes hit from production disruption in China–but I’m closing my December 16 Put on time decay gets serious

Apple takes hit from production disruption in China–but I’m closing my December 16 Put on time decay gets serious

Apple (AAPL) shares fell 2.63% today on estimates that Covid-lockdown turmoil at Chinese iPhone supplier Foxconn Technology could result in a production shortfall of 6 million units of the company’s iPhone Pro. And there’s a chance that production shortfalls could grow if Foxconn can’t get workers back to its assembly lines. The Put option on Apple that I bought back on October 12, 2022, jumped 59.79% today to $136 for a contract on 100 shares. But this option with its strike price of $135 expires on December 16. Which means that I’m running into that good old-time decay problem. If the stock, which closed at $144.22 today, doesn’t fall below $135 by December 16, then this option will expire worthless.

Apple takes hit from production disruption in China–but I’m closing my December 16 Put on time decay gets serious

So much for that rumor: China rally stalls on new Covid lockdown at Apple iPhone supplier

On Tuesday, November 1, Chinese stocks roared back on an unverified online rumor that the government had formed a committee to assess scenarios on how the country could end its Covid lockdown policy. Today, that rally has stopped dead after the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of such a committee and after the government announced a seven-day Covid lockdown at the factory that produces Apple’s iPhone

Part 2 Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

Part 2 Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

Earnings. Earnings. And more earnings. From the big bellwether technology stocks: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet. Wall Street has already slashed earnings forecast for these stocks so there’s a good chance these companies will report earnings that surpass expectations even if only by a few pennies. By and large, though, these reports will show either an absolute drop from the September quarter of 2021 or, at best, a slowing of revenue and earnings growth. Key to the market’s reaction will be what these companies say about expectations for the next quarter or two. Will they emphasize what are already clear slowdowns in PC and smartphone sales? Will they speak to the elephant in the room–the U.S/China trade war? Will they say that a strong dollar plus inflation is cutting into sales outside the United States and U.S. sales to domestic customers who are showing signs of “price fatigue”?

Please watch my newYouTube video: China Retaliates, Act 2 of the U.S-/China trade war

Please watch my newYouTube video: China Retaliates, Act 2 of the U.S-/China trade war

Today I posted by one-hundred-ninety-fourth YouTube video: China Retaliates, Act 2 of the U.S./China trade war. The National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party has rubber-stamped a third term as president for Xi Jinping–a move that required amending the Chinese constitution. Because of his age, this is likely his last term–a legacy term. Legacy terms can be dangerous in states dominated by Great Leaders because these leaders are looking to make big moves and lasting changes to secure their place in history. During this “transition,” there has been a delay in China’s response to U.S. trade restrictions, but that’s likely to change now and I expect a very strong response from the Chinese government. In the next few weeks, we can expect to see retaliation in the technology sector: rare earth minerals and refined lithium. China controls 90% of the world’s rare earth supply as well as processing for that supply. Restrictions on the exports of that material to the U.S. have been very effective in the past and extremely damaging to US technology companies. The second move, I think, will be market moves to restrict access by U.S. companies to the Chinese economy. Companies like Tesla and Apple and other big U.S. actors in China can expect harsh restrictions. The third one is a real wildcard: what happens with Taiwan? Xi’s recent speech to the National Congress was very aggressive about the Chinese government’s claim that Taiwan needs to be quickly reintegrated into China. Xi has a somewhat similar problem as that of Vladimir Putin: he has created an extreme hardcore right wing, which is putting pressure on him to be more aggressive. So, he’s going to make a move and however he moves, it will rattle the financial markets. That’s the Chinese agenda for the next four weeks or so and it makes me very hesitant about putting money into technology stocks. Additionally, look to cut risk in Apple, Tesla, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: What if you haven’t been pessimistic enough?

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: What if you haven’t been pessimistic enough?

Today’s topic: what if you haven’t been pessimistic enough now? I’ve been pretty pessimistic for a while now. And I don’t expect that the October 13 bounce really marks the bottom in this Bear Market. The bottom in my opinion won’t come until the end of 2023 or, maybe, 2024. But my worry after the events of the last few days is that I haven’t been pessimistic enough. It looks like the global economy is slowing even more than we expected. The IMF International Monetary Fund came out Monday, October 10 with new lowered projections for global growth of 2.7% in 2023. That’s down from 2.9% back in July, and it’s down from 3.8% in January. We’ve also got a big escalation of the war in Ukraine leading to a worsening global energy crisis due to more extreme sanctions on Russian oil. On top of that, we have a new trade war with China hammering technology stocks. The question is, how do you get ahead of this? I’ve suggested selling Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) on the assumption that China is going to retaliate by hammering U.S. companies that do regular business in China. Two more stocks that I’m looking at selling–or maybe protecting with Put options–are Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) as I try to get ahead of what’s going on in China.

It’s a new trade war with China and this one is really, really serious

It’s a new trade war with China and this one is really, really serious

If you liked the Trump administration’s trade war with China, you’ll love the Biden administration’s new, more dangerous, escalated version. Rather than slapping tariffs on Chinese goods, and inviting retaliatory tariffs by China on American products, the Biden administration war limits the same of advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment to Chines companies. The action is aimed straight at the heart of China’s efforts to build its own chip industry. And it plays right into a belief, stoked by China’s President Xi Jinping, that China is the victim of a Western plot to prevent the country’s rise to its rightful place in the global order. And the opening blows in this trade war come just as President Xi aims to be installed as China’s newest preeminent leader with a status near that of Mao. I don’t know what the retaliation from China will be, but it is unlikely to stop with a few restrictions on how U.S. companies, such as Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) operate in China. The situation is so dangerous because it is so uncertain and so open-ended.

Apple takes hit from production disruption in China–but I’m closing my December 16 Put on time decay gets serious

Apple tells suppliers to cut iPhone plans by as many as 6 million units in second half of 2022.

Apple (AAPL), which once urged suppliers to increase production of its new iPhone, is now telling them “Never mind,” according to Bloomberg. The anticipated surge in demand has failed to materialize. the company had told suppliers to increase production in the second half of the year ahead of a projected increase in iPhone sales in the second half of 2022. Now Apple is aiming to produce 90 million iPhones in the period. That’s roughly the same level as in the second half of 2021 and in line with Apple’s original forecast this summer.