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Archive for the ‘Mid Term’ Category

Oil hits an 18-year low–worse to come as world runs out of storage

As of noon New York time, today March 30, U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell another 5.67% to $20.29 a barrel. International benchmark Brent dropped 9.83% to $22.45 a barrel. That's an 18-year low for oil. And worse is yet to come. The world has run out of storage and Russia and Saudi Arabia continue […]

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What are the chances of a second wave of coronavirus cases in China?

One of the most hopeful signs in the fight against the global coronavirus pandemic is the decline of new cases in China after that country's draconian quarantine. As of Sunday, the country had reported a string of four days with no new domestically-sources cases. (New cases are from overseas travelers coming from countries such as […]

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Why the economic damage from the coronavirus slowdown could last through the end of 2020

Remember way back a couple of weeks ago. In February the consensus was that the slowdown in revenue and earnings from the coronavirus pandemic would last for the first quarter of 2020. Corporate guidance reflected that view with companies such as Nvidia (NVDA) telling Wall Street to expect a $100 million hit to revenue in […]

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The U.S. hospital system burns while Washington fiddles

The math is very clear and extremely disturbing. The numbers certainly argue that the coronavirus has the ability to crash the U.S. healthcare system--which would leave hospitals and other healthcare facilities conducting triage among patients with serious cases of coronavirus and those with other life-threatening conditions. The United States has about 2.8 hospital beds per […]

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The bond markets are charging more for risk

The yield spread between investment-grade corporate bonds and Treasuries climbed 11 basis points on Wednesday to 183 basis points. That's the biggest spread since 2016. The spread between high-yield (junk) bonds (with credit ratings below investment grade) also ended the day with the biggest spread since 2016. The spread grew by 20 basis points on […]

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IMF tosses out old global growth forecast

The International Monetary Fund has torn up its growth forecasts for the global economy in 2020. But it hasn't yet offered a new forecast, saying uncertainties about the coronavirus pandemic make a new projection too difficult . The fund’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, did say, that the coronavirus emergency has wiped out all the growth […]

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CDC warns of community spread of coronavirus in United States

In India today President Donald Trump told journalists that coronavirus is “very well under control in our country” and “is going to go away.” Meanwhile back in the United States the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned that the coronavirus outbreak could cause “severe disruption” to the lives of ordinary Americans, and urged […]

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With a China trade truce in place, the U.S.-European trade war moves to front burner

Well, that certainly didn't take long. With the ink barely dry on the Part 1 trade agreement between the United States and China, the European Union said that the deal could violate the rules of the World Trade Organization. EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said his team will scrutinize whether China’s pledge to increase purchases […]

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A year of great returns (2019) can lead to a year of stupid investing behavior (2020)–will you fall into the trap?

It's obvious when you think about it why a year with great investing returns--like the 33% total return (with dividends) on the Standard & Poor's 500 in 2019--should lead to a year of stupid investing behavior. A year of great returns exerts powerful pressure toward stupid behavior in the follow year. Let me count the […]

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India’s central bank flashes warning sign for all global financial markets

Of course, the Reserve Bank of India didn't mean to issue a warning to all global financial markets. The minutes of the central bank's December 3-5 meeting, released today, focus on the need to hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.15% after delivering 135 basis points of rate cuts so far this year including a […]

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