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Archive for the ‘Mid Term’ Category

Low August trading volumes increase volatility, push prices to the upside

August trading volumes are really, really low. On Monday and Tuesday trading in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, a popular vehicle for trading the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500, averaged 52.6 million shares, about 31% lower than the average volume over the last 30 days according to CNBC. Broader market trading is down […]

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Step #2 (of 5) in Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Next Big One–a Special Report update on what to sell

Today night I added Step #2 to my Special Report 5 Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Next Big? The post below is a cut and paste of the material I added to the Special Report. I'm posting it separately here to make it a bit more accessible. (In the full Special Report you can […]

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Step #1 (of 5) to get your portfolio ready for the Next Big One–Special Report update

Last night I added Step #1 to my Special Report 5 Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Next Big? The post below is a cut and paste of the material I added to the Special Report. I'm posting it separately here to make it a bit more accessible. In my macro picture, I wrote, "you'll […]

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Portfolio strategies for a changing market: What went up today when everything went down

For the last few weeks I've been working to shift gears in my online portfolios in anticipation of a tougher market after the Federal Reserve meeting (and a likely additional interest rate cut) on September 18. I've added Treasury ETFs--the Vanguard Intermediate-term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and the Vanguard Short-term Treasury ETF (VGSH)--because I think the […]

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Trump’s new round of China tariffs freaks out financial–especially bond–markets

So much for any hopes that the resumption of U.S-China trade talks would put an end to the tariff war in anything like the near term. The new round of talks only began on Wednesday, was adjourned after a day, and was scheduled to resume in Washington in September. This morning, though, President Donald Trump […]

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Is divergence between Dow Transports and Dow Industrials something to worry about?

According to Dow Theory the transportation index leads the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher and lower. A divergence between a climbing Dow Industrial Average and a falling Down Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) is an indicator of trouble to come. And that divergence is exactly what we're seeing right now. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is […]

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The global debt bubble continues to inflate

Okay, we all know that the current rally that has pushed U.S. equities to one record after another is built on cheap money. That is on a Federal Reserve that has promised to cut interest rates one, two, or maybe even three times in 2019. And on a hope on Wall Street that the 2019 […]

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In the longer short term does the market’s intense focus on interest rate cuts from the Fed set up a trap for stocks?

Looking at what I called "the shortish short term" in a post yesterday, I said that in that time frame the market is likely to behave as if nothing much matters besides the Federal Reserve and interest rate cuts. The logic, I argued, works like this: We're in the midst of a rally to historic […]

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Changes in China’s trade talks team likely mean deal, if any, later rather than sooner

For this new round of U.S.-China trade talks--with no schedule for the first meeting yet in place--the Chinese have shaken up with negotiating team by adding Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, regarded by some White House officials as a hard-liner, to Chinese Vice Premier Liu He who headed the last round. The shift seems to be […]

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Lagarde to run European Central Bank in what I see as positive move for global growth

Christine Lagarde will move from heading the International Monetary Fund to take over the helm at the European Central Bank from outgoing President Mario Draghi. I think this is a generally positive piece of news. First, putting Lagarde in the chair means that Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann won't take over from Draghi. Weidmann has advocated […]

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