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Archive for the ‘Mid Term’ Category

China’s economy continues to weaken

The manufacturing sector--thanks to the U.S.-China trade war--continues to slow China’s economy. But the real problem may be an underperformance in the services sector that makes it impossible for that sector to pick up the slack. The end result is that the third quarter looks to be the weakest of the year, according to the […]

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Another forecast for lower growth in global economy

Today, September 19, the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) cut the growth projections it had made for the global economy just four months ago. The world economy is forecast to grow at just a 2.9% rate in 2019 and 3.0% in 2020 after growing by a not especially robust 3.6% in 2018. That's […]

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Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points; Trump, financial markets disappointed by guidance on future cuts

Today the Federal Reserve lowered its main interest rate another 25 basis points to a range of 1.75% to 2%. To say that the Fed's Open Market Committee was divided on the decision would be an extreme understatement: Five officials wanted to keep rates unchanged, while five saw a quarter point as appropriate,  and seven […]

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The credit crunch cometh: Cantor Global calls out credit market froth in junk bonds

Companies sold $13 billion in junk bonds this week, according to Bloomberg. Risk premiums for junk bonds over Treasuries have dropped by 1.5 percentage points in 2019. And at the same time when investors are getting paid less to take on risk, the amount of risk among junk bond offerings is rising. "We're starting to […]

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With luck and slight of hand, Draghi restarts quantitative easing at European Central Bank

If it had come to a formal vote, there's a good chance that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi would have faced defeat in his efforts to revive quantitative easing at the central bank. But the bank doesn't usually hold a formal vote on a issue like this and by luck administrative rules removed the […]

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Moody’s moves Ford debt to junk

Back on August 30 I wrote that several credit rating companies had put the debt of Kraft Heinz (KHC) on their radar screens for a possible downgrade to junk status from investment grade. That would be, I noted, a big deal both for Kraft Heinz and the bond market as a whole since it would […]

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With newest tariff move Chinese prove again that they’re smart negotiators

Ahead of the resumption of U.S.-China trade negotiators next month China has announced a small set of exclusions--on $1.65 billion in U.S. exports to China--from 25% tariffs that were put into place last year. The exempt goods include such minor categories as alfalfa, fish meal, pharmaceuticals, and lubricant oil. The exemptions don't include any action […]

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It’s just analysis, but reports say China’s Xi has a Trump trust problem

With the proviso that no one is inside the head of Chinese President Xi Jinping (except Xi himself) and that this is all speculative analysis which carries it's own bias, I think it's worth taking seriously reports that Xi may have a Trump problem that makes it almost certain that the U.S.-China trade war will […]

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Low August trading volumes increase volatility, push prices to the upside

August trading volumes are really, really low. On Monday and Tuesday trading in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, a popular vehicle for trading the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500, averaged 52.6 million shares, about 31% lower than the average volume over the last 30 days according to CNBC. Broader market trading is down […]

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Step #2 (of 5) in Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Next Big One–a Special Report update on what to sell

Today night I added Step #2 to my Special Report 5 Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Next Big? The post below is a cut and paste of the material I added to the Special Report. I'm posting it separately here to make it a bit more accessible. (In the full Special Report you can […]

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