Mid Term
May 13, 2026 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Wholesale prices in April rose at their fastest rate in four years. The Producer Price Index, a measure of the costs that businesses pay for goods and services, rose 1.4% in April from the prior month, and is up 6% from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. It was the fastest one-month increase in the index since March 2022.
The news came one day after the government reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.8% in April from a year earlier, the fastest pace of inflation in nearly three years.
May 9, 2026 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Last week the size of the debt of the U.S. government surpassed the nation’s total economic output (GDP). This isn’t a milestone we should celebrate. The U.S. hasn’t been in this position frequently–and usually only because of extraordinary circumstances. For example, briefly during the pandemic and in the aftermath of World War II. It is extraordinary that is has happened now–when there isn’t an unusual, out-of-the ordinary event of the magnitude of those. This is a crisis of “normality.”
May 9, 2026 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
President Donald Trump will meet with President Xi Jinping at a summit delayed by the war in Iran. The summit is scheduled for May 14 and 15. It’s hard for me to see President Trump emerging from the meeting with major concessions from China. Trump’s bargaining leverage has been radically reduced by the Iran war and a recent court decision declaring unconstitutional the across-the-board 10% tariffs he implemented to replace an earlier global tariff regime that was also thrown out by the courts. But I don’t rule out the chance for a surprise announcement on the Iran war if China, a major backer of Iran and a major customer of Iranian oil now bottled up by the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, can find a formula that lets it assert its leadership in the global economy.
May 7, 2026 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Surging gas prices are inflaming the economic divide in America, as households with lower incomes struggle to pay more at the pump at a moment when prices are already elevated. According to an analysis released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Wednesday, the burden of the surge in gas prices is falling hardest on those with the least room to absorb it.
February 24, 2026 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, PAAS |
In a recent post I pointed out that all of the laws of supply and demand were aligned to push the price of gold higher. Using that same framework, it’s clear why silver, as spectacular as a run as it had in 2025—up nearly 160% on the year—and in the early days of 2026—up another 20% through January 20—isn’t as good a future bet for investors and traders as gold. The big difference between gold and silver going forward is the role of the world’s central banks.
February 17, 2026 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
The mortgage delinquency rates for lower-income households are surging, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which recently released its Household Debt and Credit report for the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the data, the 90-plus-day mortgage delinquency rate for families in the lowest-income bracket jumped from 0.5% in 2021 to nearly 3% by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, American families in the highest-income areas are doing just fine, maintaining “historically lower delinquency rates.”
February 9, 2026 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Chinese regulators have advised the country’s big banks to rein in their holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Officials urged banks to limit purchases of U.S. government bonds and instructed those with high exposure to pare their positions. The directive cited concerns over concentration risks and market volatility. The directive doesn’t apply to China’s state holdings of U.S. Treasuries.
January 26, 2026 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
On Friday, January 23, shares of Intel (INTC) fell by more that 17%. And they dropped another 5.7% today, January 26. Which was quite a turnaround from the stock’s recent performance. From 1 October 1, 2025 to January 21, 2026, Intel’s stock rose from about $35.76 to $54.25, a gain of 52%. Forward price-to-earnings ration based on projected earnings in 12 months had reached 80 to 90, far above the semiconductor sector average in the 20s–30s. Both the speculative rally and the post-earnings collapse are perfectly understandable.
January 25, 2026 | AAPL, Daily JAM, GLD, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Mid Term, MSFT, NVDA, PAAS, SCCO, Top 50 Stocks, WPM |
A week of Big Tech earnings reports will confirm or reverse what sure looks like a sector rotation away from tech shares and into metal and mining company stocks.
January 20, 2026 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Mid Term, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
Taiwanese semiconductor and tech companies, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the chip foundry critical to global AI supply chains, have committed at least $250 billion in investmentS to build and expand chip, energy, and AI production capacity in the U.S.
November 10, 2025 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Today I aded this explanation of the second bubble to the end of my Special Report on 3 market bubbles. This Part 2 is about the possibility of an economic recession and a related blow up in the debt market. Especially for AI debt. I’m reposting it here as a stand alone so no reader, who wants to read it, will miss it.
November 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, MCD, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
McDonald’s problem with its lower income customers continues. In third quarter earnings announced today, November 5, the company reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $3.22. That was 11 cents a share below Wall Street analyst estimates. Revenue of $7.08 billion, up 3.1% year-over-year, missed by $10 million. Global comparable sales increased 3.6%; U.S. comparable store sales increased 2.4%. The problem, as it was been in recent quarters is that the company continues to see sales drop to its lower-income customers.
