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Archive for the ‘Mid Term’ Category

With a China trade truce in place, the U.S.-European trade war moves to front burner

Well, that certainly didn't take long. With the ink barely dry on the Part 1 trade agreement between the United States and China, the European Union said that the deal could violate the rules of the World Trade Organization. EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said his team will scrutinize whether China’s pledge to increase purchases […]

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A year of great returns (2019) can lead to a year of stupid investing behavior (2020)–will you fall into the trap?

It's obvious when you think about it why a year with great investing returns--like the 33% total return (with dividends) on the Standard & Poor's 500 in 2019--should lead to a year of stupid investing behavior. A year of great returns exerts powerful pressure toward stupid behavior in the follow year. Let me count the […]

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India’s central bank flashes warning sign for all global financial markets

Of course, the Reserve Bank of India didn't mean to issue a warning to all global financial markets. The minutes of the central bank's December 3-5 meeting, released today, focus on the need to hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.15% after delivering 135 basis points of rate cuts so far this year including a […]

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Inflation isn’t exactly dead

Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning with a Wall Street strategist looking for a full percentage point […]

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Democrats sign onto revised U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement with vote likely next week

Washington, D.C. is the home of the surreal these days but the timing of the announcement by Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi still raised eyebrows. Just minutes after the House committees investigating President Donald Trump voted two articles of impeachment, Pelosi, backed by 30 of her House colleagues said that Democrats had secured enough changes […]

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China bond defaults head for another record year

With 15 defaults in November, total onshore bond defaults have hit $120.4 billion yuan ($17.1 billion)in 2019, according to Bloomberg. That's close to the 121.9 billion yuan record set in 2018. While the $17.1 billion in onshore defaults seems insignificant compared to the $4.4 trillion size of China's total onshore corporate bond market, they're enough […]

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Trump says, No hurry to strike a trade deal with China in 2020, and markets tumble

“I don’t have a deadline,” Trump told reporters today in London. “I like the idea of waiting until after the election for the China deal. But they want to make a deal now and we’ll see whether not the deal is going to be right.” And with that financial markets that had been counting on […]

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Earnings retreat for the fourth quarter?

Sorry. A draft version of this was published prematurely yesterday. Here is the actual final version. Wall Street analysts always cut their earnings estimates as a quarter progresses. (Which then lets lots of companies beat forecasts when they actually report.) But for the fourth quarter of 2019, the cuts to earnings estimates for the companies in […]

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Data clash on U.S. manufacturing–contraction or expansion?

According to the Purchasing Managers Index from the Institute for Supply Management the U.S.manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction in November with the index dropping to 48.1 in November from 48.3 in October. That was a fourth-straight monthly contraction for the index. (Anything below 50 signals contraction. Above 50 points to an expansion.) On the […]

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China’s Xi Jinping demonstrates why ending the U.S.-China trade war will be so tough

In spite of all the delays and all the contradictory claims I remain convinced that a Part 1 trade agreement between the U.S. and China will get signed. Maybe not in the remainder of 2019 but certainly within the early part of 2020. A wider agreement to settle issues such as greater protection for intellectual […]

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