If any investor wants to figure out what trends to invest in and when are the investing opportunities created by global climate change and efforts to limit the rise in our planet’s temporary, you need to look at every system of signs for clues. That means looking at the obvious, the political discourse as represented by the climate change plans of the Biden administration and the positions staked out by its opponents on the right and left. It means looking at the slightly less obvious, the advertising and public relations spending by companies trying escape the worst effects of the efforts to control climate change (oil companies, for example) and by companies trying to position themselves as champions of the fight to save the planet. And it means studying the much less obvious such as the climate change accounting principles I described in Part 1 of this Special Report to see which actions will be privileged and which penalized by the rules for keeping the books. From my own take on those systems, I’ve come up with a list of climate change trends that I think are worth investing in–and a calendar for when I think you ought to put your money into these trends. In Part 3 of this Special Report I’ll give you the names of 10 stocks that I’d look to use to ride these trends. Today’s segment, though, is devoted to laying out a sense of when to put your money into specific phases of the overall global climate change trend. I’ve divided this “calendar” into three parts.
Today’s Part 1 is a kind of over view of the state of the art in global climate change accounting. With my suggestions about what principles you should bring to understanding this “information.” Part 2 will take off from this conclusions in Part 1 to try to prioritize opportunities for investing–at a profit–in the battle to control global climate change. Part 3 will use Part 1 and Part 2 to build a portfolio of 10 stocks where I’d put money today given what we can see of the course of that battle over the next decade. So let’s start with Part 1 on how to read the numbers.
2021 is shaping up as an especially challenging year for investors. Much, much more challenging than 2020. I don’t think we can count on this rally running uninterrupted through the year. That would be simple, wouldn’t it? We’d all know how to profit from that scenario. And I don’t think the market is about to drop off a cliff from its current record highs. That would be traumatic. But, still, we do know how to protect a portfolio in that scenario. And even how to profit from a prolonged plunge–if we can bring ourselves to place those short and Put Options bets. Instead 2021 is likely to be one of those years with a Rally Stage and then a correction (or “something”) to be followed by a last quarter of 2021 that is, at this moment, close to completely unpredictable. That would make 2021 one of those years that gives investors a chance to be wrong several times over, to botch timing on the upside and the downside, and to let emotions power some really bad investment moves. I don’t pretend that I’ve got this year’s market stages down perfectly–although I think the outlines for the first two stages for 2021 are pretty clear. I don’t imagine that I’ve got the timing for navigating these stages clocked perfectly–although I do think I understand “generally” when the market is likely to switch gears. And that lets me lay out for you a likely pattern for 2021 and to suggest stocks and ETFs to use to navigate this year. Part of the point in getting as specific as I can at this point isn’t that I expect that I’ve got everything right, but to lay out concrete markers that will let you and me adjust portfolios as the year progresses. I’m dividing this Special Report into three parts.
Today I’m starting a new portfolio on JubakAM.com as part of a new Special Report.The portfolio, The Millennial Portfolio (for anyone who has more time than money), isn’t intended to be limited to millennials, that generation from 1981 to 1996. Its strategies and stock picks are aimed at any investor who has more time–to retirement, to college tuition payments for the kids, to the downpayment on a house–than money. But millennials get their name on this portfolio because this generation is such a perfect example of the problem.
So where are your profits going to come from in 2021 and indeed for the next 10 years? Not, I’d argue from a bounce in the consumer stocks that got crushed by the coronavirus pandemic shutdowns. For the next few months, I think you’ll be able to score big profits in airlines, retailers, restaurants and other stocks that have been hammered in the coronavirus economy. It’s already been quite a bounce. And there’s still more upside as coronavirus vaccines get rolled out.But after that? Pheh! Not in those sectors. Airlines haven’t shown a net profit during the life of the airline industry. The retail sector was “over-stored” even before the coronavirus. The restaurant sector was busy devouring its own young. And just how many chicken sandwiches can America eat? No, the really big long-term profits aren’t going to come from a bounce in distressed sectors. But from the invention of whole new products and industries and sectors. They’re going to come from electric cars, artificial intelligence, climate change, and distributed-work software to name just four big but already discernible future trends.
I started off with utility stocks and I’ve now moved on to other dividend stocks within the general argument that dividend stocks–if you pick the right one–are perfect for the post-vaccine economy and stock market rally.