March 7, 2026 | Daily JAM |
I expect a big White House campaign with lots of talking heads to argue that the inflation increase we’re likely to see is just temporary. Unless the White House can convince American consumers, the bond market, and the Federal Reserve that the inflation that we all see and feel is only temporary the Trump/Warsh interest rate cuts are dead in the water. Look for rhetoric from the usual Trump administration sources, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent or White House economist Kevin Hassett, claiming that the coming spike in inflation is totally due to the Iran war. And that therefore it’s only temporary and will soon vanish. Which means that the Federal Reserve should go ahead and cut interest rates. Certainly as soon as President Trump’s Fed nominee, Kevin Warsh, takes over from Jerome Powell as chair of the central bank in May. (Assuming he wins Senate confirmation.)
February 27, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5% in January, the Bureau of labor Statistics reported this morning. Prices for final demand services advanced 0.8%, and the index for final demand goods declined 0.3 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended in January. Prices paid to U.S. producers rose in January by more than forecast, fueled by services and pointing to lingering inflationary pressures.
The producer price index increased 0.5%, the most since September, after a revised 0.4% increase in December. An index that excludes food and energy advanced by the most since July.
February 18, 2026 | Daily JAM |
The release today of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January 18 meeting gave the financial market’s something to think about. And signs that officials signaled no rush to restart interest rate cuts after pausing reductions last month, according to minutes from January’s meeting, wan’t something investors and traders wanted to think about. Stocks trimmed gains. Bonds fell. Oil jumped. The S&P 500 pared most of advance that had earlier reached 1%. But the market still managed to repair some of the damage in software stocks as a result of fears that AI models would disrupt the marker for software as a service. An ETF tracking software firms rose 1%.
February 13, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Headline CPI (Consumer Price index) inflation moderated in January to an annual rate of 2.4%. Prices rose 0.2% from December to January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, went up 0.3% over the month. Economists had anticipated the annual inflation rate would fall to 2.5%.
January 29, 2026 | Daily JAM |
President Donald Trump said Thursday that he could announce his pick to lead the Federal Reserve “next week.” He repeated his demand that the central bank should lower interest rates more quickly, saying they should be as much as “3 points lower” than they were currently. The Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate is currently 3.50% to 3.75%.
January 28, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Today, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to hold the benchmark federal funds short-term rate in a range of 3.5%-3.75%. Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a quarter-point reduction.
In a post-meeting statement, Fed officials said “job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization.” Officials dropped language pointing to increased downside risks to employment that had appeared in the three previous statements.
The upgraded assessment of the labor market likely signals that the Fed will remain on hold at the March and April meetings. The CME FedWatch Tool put the odds of no change at the March 18 meeting at 86.5% and the odds of no change at the April 29 meeting at 74%.
January 25, 2026 | Daily JAM |
It’s unlikely that the Federal Reserve will surprise financial markets when it meets on January 28. The CME FedWatch Tool on Friday showed the financial markets giving 97.2% odds that the central bank would hold its benchmark short term interest rate steady at 3.50% to 3.73%. It’s extremely unlikely that the Fed would have let the financial markets expecting rates to stay the same if the bank was planing a policy shift.
January 12, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The yield on the 10-year U.s. Treasury board 2 basus points to 4.18% today in response to news that Justice Department is conducting a criminal investigation into Fed chair Jerome Powell over his Congressional testimony on the Fed’s building project. Yep, this major escalation of the Trump Administration’s campaign to force the Fed to cut interest rates more deeply and at a faster pace produced almost no reaction in the bond market.
December 10, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point today,Wednesday. But revealed a huge disagreement on the course for 2026. The decision cut interest rates for a third meeting in a row, moving rates to a new range of 3.5% to 3.75%. It marked the fourth straight vote that was not supported by all members of the 12-person Federal Open Market Committee. Voting for today’s 25 basis point cut were Jerome Powell, chair; John Williams, vice chair; Michael Barr; Michelle Bowman; Susan Collins; Lisa Cook; Philip Jefferson; Alberto Musalem; and Christopher Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting; and Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range at this meeting. The new target Fed Funds rate of 3.5% to 3.75% is, of course, a nominal rate. With the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, running at 28.% in September, the last monthly data, the current nominal target rate is barely above 0% at 0.7% to 0.95%. Yep, we’re back to the days of 1% interest rates.
December 6, 2025 | Daily JAM |
Speculation about future rate cuts and who will replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair rather than the actual rate cut itself at the December 10 meeting will generate the most interest among investors and traders.
November 26, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
A week ago investors and traders had thrown in the towel on the chances for a 25-basis point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its December 10 meeting. The odds of a rate cut were down to 30.1% on November 19, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Today a rate cut is back on the table with the odds back up to 84.7%. That’s roughly where the odds were a month ago–91.7%. And stocks are basically back where they were before worries about the rate cut kicked in.
November 19, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Sure, deep worries about growth, profits, and soaring capital spending in the AI sectors were a major contributors to the market sell off. But let’s not forget the extraordinary reversal in investor sentiment about the likelihood of another 25 basis point cut in interest rates at the Fed’s December 10 meeting. On October 17, the CME FedWatch Tool calculated that the Fed Funds Futures market had priced in a 93.6% chance of another 25-basis point cut in interest rates. Today November 19, the market was pricing in only 32.8% odds of a cut. the odds of the Fed doing nothing to cut rates on December 10 had climbed to 67.2%. AI worries aside, that big a shift in expectations–when investors had just about decided that the Fed would cut again–puts strong downward pressure on stock prices.
As a reminder of how the ground has shifted in just a few weeks, today, November 19, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its October 29 meeting.
