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Posts Tagged ‘interest rates’

Tomorrow’s opening speech by Powell at Jackson Hole central bank gabfest gets more and more interesting

The financial markets aren't backing off. They're pricing in high odds of another 65 basis points to 75 basis points in interest rate cuts by the end of 2019. That means a 25 or 50 basis point cut at the September 18 meeting followed by another 25 to 50 basis point cut at the December […]

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No consensus at the Fed in July for faster interest rate cuts, minutes show

The financial market didn't get what it had hoped for out of today's release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July 31 meeting. The market was hoping for something in the minutes that pointed toward a shift in Fed policy toward an extended cycle of interest rate cuts. What it got instead was evidence […]

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Markets bet that Fed will follow ECB this week to announce something “spectacular”

Gotta love that financial market enthusiasm for central banks. Last week the markets rallied on signals from the European Central Bank that it would cut its key interest rate--now at a negative 0.40%--to a negative -0.50%, lower the rates that banks pay to borrow money from the central bank, and restart its program of quantitive […]

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Trick or Trend: U.S. again considers issuing 100-year Treasuries

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. The last time (back in 2017) the Treasury Department asked the market for a show […]

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Central banks talk the markets up: Here we go again!

We've seen this play before: Financial markets start to tumble and central banks step in--not with actual stimulus quite yet but certainly with talk of stimulus. The European Central Bank and the German government took a turn today. Germany's Der Spiegel magazine reported today that Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz would be willing […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

... well, expect that nothing much else  will matter if the yuan-dollar exchange rate moves noticeably up or down this week. In a normal week, investors and traders would be studying reports on inflation (CPI), retail sales, initial claims for unemployment, oil inventories, and housing starts. But all that news will play second fiddle (if […]

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China strikes back

We suspend our usual programming to cover the developing financial market and likely economic reaction to China's decision to let the yuan tumble in retaliation to President Donald Trump's decision last week to place a 10% tariff on an additional $300 billion in Chinese exports to the United States. Topics I can imagine posting on […]

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Trick or Trend: Have the new China tariffs reset the Powell put?

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Today, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a 25 basis point (or […]

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Decent job growth in July; bond market prices in 100% chance of another interest rate cut on September 18

The U.S. economy added 164,000 jobs in July. That's down from the 193,000 jobs added in June (revised down from an initial 224,000) and slightly higher than the 160,000 jobs forecast by economists surveyed by Briefing.com At 3.7% the headline unemployment rate was even with the 3.7% rate in June. The U6 unemployment rate, which […]

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Trump’s new round of China tariffs freaks out financial–especially bond–markets

So much for any hopes that the resumption of U.S-China trade talks would put an end to the tariff war in anything like the near term. The new round of talks only began on Wednesday, was adjourned after a day, and was scheduled to resume in Washington in September. This morning, though, President Donald Trump […]

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