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Posts Tagged ‘interest rates’

There’s no inflation, the Federal Reserve says. You feel that’s wrong–and know what? You’re actually right

Two days after the last Federal Reserve meeting on December 11--where they told us again that inflation continues to fall below the Fed's 2% threshold and that, therefore, there's no inflation to worry about--I walked into my favorite New York bagel shop, Absolute Bagel, to discover that the bagel bakery had posted new prices: Bagels would […]

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India’s central bank flashes warning sign for all global financial markets

Of course, the Reserve Bank of India didn't mean to issue a warning to all global financial markets. The minutes of the central bank's December 3-5 meeting, released today, focus on the need to hold its benchmark interest rate at 5.15% after delivering 135 basis points of rate cuts so far this year including a […]

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Fed keeps interest rates steady; Treasury yields and dollar slip slightly

As expected the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.5% to 1.75% today. The median forecast from Federal Reserve officials pointed to no change in interest rates through 2020. “Our economic outlook remains a favorable one despite global developments and ongoing risks,” Fed chair Jerome Powell aid at a press conference following […]

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The dangers in a highly correlated market

Measures of volatility such as the VIX "fear index," the ratio of the implied volatility of S&P 500 put and call options, and the demand in the options market for protection against low-probability events, all say that investors and traders believe this is a market driven by macro events. And one where most asset classes […]

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Inflation isn’t exactly dead

Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning with a Wall Street strategist looking for a full percentage point […]

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It’s getting to look a lot like end of the year volatility

Remember how back in September a spike in very short term overnight rates in the repo market kicked off volatility across the financial markets until the Federal reserve flooded that market with liquidity? Well, signs are that we could see the kind of spike in volatility again as the end of 2019 approaches. Rates to […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

... central bank week. The Federal Reserve announces changes to U.S. benchmark interest rates on Wednesday, December 11. The central bank is expected to keep rates at current levels. The European Central Bank meets a day later, on Thursday, December 12. It too is expected to leave interest rates and the terms of its current […]

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Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?

You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about to tumble. (Called "The Powell Put" after […]

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Does Fed, market complacency make you nervous?

“The U.S. economy is the star economy these days,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told the House Budget Committee today, November 14. “There is no reason to think that I could see that the probability of a recession is at all elevated at this time.” “Our forecast is, and our expectation very much is, one of […]

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Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020

Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning's testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee.  “We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long […]

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