Daily JAM

CPI inflation creeps higher in November

CPI inflation creeps higher in November

Inflation remains stubborn. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a 2.7% annual rate in November, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. That was hotter than a 2.6% rise in October. But that matched economists forecasts. It was also above September’s 2.4% annual rate. On a monthly basis, inflation increased 0.3% from October to November, the biggest gain since April. Prices for housing, energy, and particularly food all rose.
CPI core inflation, prices excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose another 0.3% for the fourth straight month. The are rate was up 3.3% for the year. For the past six months, core inflation has been stuck at an elevated level above the Fed’s target of 2%.

Watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick LNG

Watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick LNG

Today’s Quick Pick is Cheniere Energy, (LNG). Cheniere liquifies natural gas and sells it globally. The stock is up about 32% YTD. The company is about to put seven more units of natural gas production on line, and it looks like they’ll be selling and distributing that gas, as scheduled, by the end of the year. This will mean more revenue from an actual plant producing more LNG, not the idea or a theory that more gas will maybe be put out soon. The incoming Trump Administration will be light on regulation for natural gas and there is rising demand from data centers looking to guarantee their own energy needs. I already own the stock but if I didn’t I’d certainly be adding it to my portfolio right now.

Politburo signals big boost to China’s economy

Politburo signals big boost to China’s economy

Words count. And they move stocks when they come from China’s President Xi Jinping and the Politburo ahead of the March session of parliament that will set the budget–and stimulus spending for the year. The words? The Politburo vowed to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. That’s a huge shift from the “prudent” strategy that’s held for nearly 14 years. The last time China adopted a “moderately loose” monetary policy was in the Global Financial Crisis as part of a big stimulus package to prop up the economy.

Consumer debt soared in October–are consumers trying to beat the Trump tariffs?

Consumer debt soared in October–are consumers trying to beat the Trump tariffs?

U.S. consumer credit rose by $19.2 billion in October, smashing through the $10.1 billion consensus forecast. And surging from $3.2 billion in September, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday. One in three Americans are stockpiling daily necessities like toilet paper and non-perishable food out of fear that President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to add tariffs to imported goods will lead to higher prices, according to a new survey by CreditCards.com

U.S. electricity demand set to soar–this is a very big deal

U.S. electricity demand set to soar–this is a very big deal

U.S. electricity demand could rise by128 gigawatts over the next five years, driven by data centers and manufacturing growth primarily in six regions of the country, according to a report published Thursday by Grid Strategies. That result is a five-fold increase in electric demand load forecasts from estimates just two years ago.

Jobs report locks in one more rate cut from the Fed

Jobs report locks in one more rate cut from the Fed

The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday morning, December 6. In addition, revisions added 56,000 jobs to the totals for October and September. Which adds up to a strong recovery from the shocking low 12,000 new jobs initially reported for October. Initial analysis that the almost non-existant growth for October was due to hurricanes and strikes now looks correct. At the same time, the unemployment rate, which is calculated in a survey separate from that which produces the jobs total, ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The jobs total and the unemployment rate were broadly expected by economists. The complete picture is of an economy showing a continued modest expansion. In my opinion, that’s enough to lead to a 25 basis point cut at its December 18 meeting in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate from the current range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The CME FedWatch took today put the odds od a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting at 85.1%. That’s up from 66% odds a week ago

Watch my new YouTube video: What if the economic consensus on tariffs is wrong?

Watch my new YouTube video: What if the economic consensus on tariffs is wrong?

Today’s video is What if the economic consensus on tariffs is wrong? It would be really bad news for stocks. The current consensus among economists is that tariffs will be inflationary as companies pass on rising prices to consumers. However, as Nir Kaissar recently wrote in an opinion piece for Bloomberg, this may not be correct. He used McDonald’s as an example. In February, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said that the fast food restaurant has been losing low-income customers–houseold income of $45,000 or less– as the cost of its meals has risen. The price of a Big Mac, for example, has risen 25% since 2019, even though the price of raw materials has not risen at that rate. The operating margin at the company gone up and Wall Street expects that to continue, even as the company has lost customers. The company announced that they’d be offering a new, low price menu in an effort to retain a larger low-income consumer base. If more companies go in the direction of cutting costs to retain customers rather than passing on the cost of tariffs to consumers, Wall Street will be in for a big, unwelcome surprise in earnings since the current analyst consensus looks for operating margins to continue to climb in 2025 and 2026. 2025 is sure to come with volatility and uncertainty until we have a better idea of how high and far reaching the tariffs will be, and how companies will respond to them.

“Drill, baby, drill”? OPEC doesn’t think so

“Drill, baby, drill”? OPEC doesn’t think so

Oil edged lower–West Texas Intermediate closed down 0.06% and Brent ended 0.08% lower–after OPEC+ announced plans to defer supply increases for three months, but still add barrels starting in April to a market that’s expected to be oversupplied. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to delay their planned output hike.

Peak gasoline demand is near (or maybe even here) in China

Peak gasoline demand is near (or maybe even here) in China

The forecasts don’t totally agree on the date but they do agree on the trend: Because China’s sales of electric vehicles and hybrids accounted for more than half of retail passenger vehicle sales in the four months from July, the country’s demand for gasoline is near a peak. And unlike in the U.S. and Europe where peaks in consumption were followed by long plateaus, the drop in demand in the world’s top crude importer is expected to be more pronounced. Brokerage CITIC Futures sees Chinese gasoline consumption dropping by 4% to 5% a year through 2030. The
International Energy Agency says demand peaked in 2024 and forecasts a 2.3% decline in 2025.

When does that U.S.-China tech trade war arrive? Right about now

When does that U.S.-China tech trade war arrive? Right about now

Yesterday, Tuesday, December 3, China retaliated to a new round of U.S. technology restrictions from the Biden Administration with a ban on exports of high-tech minerals gallium, germanium, and antimony. Beijing will also place tighter controls on sales of graphite. On Monday the White House slapped new restrictions on the sale of high-bandwidth memory chips made by U.S. and foreign companies to China. The measures blacklisted 140 additional Chinese entities with a focus on companies that produce chip manufacturing equipment that’s crucial to China’s pursuit of semiconductor self-sufficiency. The metals targeted in China’s export ban are used in everything from semiconductors to satellites and night-vision goggles.