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Archive for the ‘Daily JAM’ Category

Saturday Night Quarterback says (on Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

... financial markets to ignore very clear warnings from global central banks at the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole conference this weekend. Central bankers, including the Fed's Jerome Powell, were very clear in warning that central bank monetary policy tools were not well suited to addressing the current global economic slowdown. Because this slowdown is trade […]

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Trick or Trend: Today the odds for a U.S.-China trade war that stretches until at least November 2020 went up

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Today moved the calendar on the U.S.-China trade war--and not in a good way. Even […]

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Powell signals interest rate cuts but says that U.S.-China trade war is outside Fed’s policy framework

Good news and bad news for investors betting on a signal of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve in Jerome Powell's speech at today's Jackson Hole central bank festival Financial markets were hoping that Powell would indicate that the Fed is thinking about a deeper than 25 basis point interest rate cut at its […]

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Trump launches a new era of U.S.-China unpredictability–markets will love this

In a Twitter post today, U.S. President Donald Trump asked, “My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?” It's not really surprising that Trump based the Federal Reserve chair today. Indications are that Trump was disappointed that Powell didn't announce new interest rate cuts in his speech this morning […]

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China retaliates; Trump promises his retaliation to their retaliation this afternoon

Xi Jinping and Donald Trump upstaged Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell this morning. Powell's Jackson Hole speech this morning was supposed to be the day's big market event. (More on this speech in a later post.) But this morning China announced that it would retaliate to the last round of additional 10% tariffs on $300 […]

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Apple sketches in September product launches–will they be enough?

Two big clouds of doubt hover over shares of Apple (AAPL). First, will the continuing U.S.-China trade war take another bite out of Apple's China revenue? And/Or disrupt Apple's China supply chain, saddling the company with higher tariffs on its made in China iPhones? Back in January shares of Apple plunged to the lowest price […]

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Tomorrow’s opening speech by Powell at Jackson Hole central bank gabfest gets more and more interesting

The financial markets aren't backing off. They're pricing in high odds of another 65 basis points to 75 basis points in interest rate cuts by the end of 2019. That means a 25 or 50 basis point cut at the September 18 meeting followed by another 25 to 50 basis point cut at the December […]

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A deep dive into Exxon Mobil financials shows where even the big oil majors are vulnerable

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Low August trading volumes increase volatility, push prices to the upside

August trading volumes are really, really low. On Monday and Tuesday trading in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, a popular vehicle for trading the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500, averaged 52.6 million shares, about 31% lower than the average volume over the last 30 days according to CNBC. Broader market trading is down […]

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No consensus at the Fed in July for faster interest rate cuts, minutes show

The financial market didn't get what it had hoped for out of today's release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July 31 meeting. The market was hoping for something in the minutes that pointed toward a shift in Fed policy toward an extended cycle of interest rate cuts. What it got instead was evidence […]

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