Daily JAM

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

I the Big Event to be Friday morning’s report of the November jobs numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 2% last week. The Nasdaq Composite and the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose more than 1%. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones ended November at all-time highs. A ”good” jobs report, which is likely, will keep the records coming for at least another week–until the usual Fed meeting jitters set in on the run up to the central bank’s meeting on December 18.

25% tariffs for Mexico, China, and Canada: This won’t be the last time Trump talks tariffs

25% tariffs for Mexico, China, and Canada: This won’t be the last time Trump talks tariffs

Yesterday in social media posts President-elect Donald Trump said that he would impose tariffs on his first day back in office, targeting the United States’ three largest trading partners, of 25% on all goods from Canada and Mexico until drugs and migrants stopped coming over the borders, and an additional 10% tariff on all products from China, saying that the country was shipping illegal drugs to the United States. (The Biden Administration had already imposed its own higher tariffs on China and, in additional, it had kept tariffs on China from the first Trump Administration in effect.)

Biden proposes/Trump disposes: Will GLP-1 diabetes/obesity drugs become free under Medicare and Medicaid?

Biden proposes/Trump disposes: Will GLP-1 diabetes/obesity drugs become free under Medicare and Medicaid?

The Biden administration has proposed making GLP-1 weight loss drugs free for low-income people and retirees who qualify as obese. Expensive drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy and Zepbound, which cost $1,000 a month, would be covered for the 40% of the U.S. population who qualify as obese. Currently, the federal plans only cover the drugs when patients have other conditions caused by obesity, such as diabetes, heart disease. The leading drugs are made by Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO). Shares of Eli Lilly were up 4.55% today while Novo Nordisk rose 1.50%. The incoming Trump Administration will have to decide whether to move ahead with the plan. You can either think of this as a smart piece of health care policy or an effort to jam up an incoming administration that already faces challenges in devising coherent policy on healthcare. I go with the “jam ‘em up” theory myself.

I just added this to my Special Report: “3 Strategies and 10 Picks for Juicy Returns in a Yield Drought”:Why the 3-month Treasury bill is a great investment now

I just added this to my Special Report: “3 Strategies and 10 Picks for Juicy Returns in a Yield Drought”:Why the 3-month Treasury bill is a great investment now

Let’s start with the 4.54% yield. And then note that, if you hold a bill to maturity, it is essentially risk free. Compare that combination to gold which has a comparable degree of risk but pays a yield of 0%. Or to a 3-month CD where the average U.S. yield is 1.52% or to a 6-month CD where the average U.S. yield is 1.68%.

Higher mortgage rates for longer?

Higher mortgage rates for longer?

Three days after the U.S. election, Redfin, the technology-driven real estate brokerage that does business in 100 markets, raised its projection for the average mortgage rate in 2025 to 6.8%. That’s roughly where the current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands now. Other real estate analysts, including Moody Analytics and Capital Economics, expect rates near 7% next year. This is bad news for two reasons.