Daily JAM

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

This week I expect the market to put its obsession with the Federal Reserve, inflation, and interest rates on hold, and switch to watching earnings reports for the first quarter of 2024. The first batch of earnings–the Big Banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC)–hits the wires on Friday, April 12–with Netflix (NFLX) to begin tech/momentum earnings reports on Tuesday, April 18. I think it would be an overstatement to say that the quarter’s earnings reports are make or break for this rally–the economic news is just too strong and interest rate cuts loom out there somewhere even if no one can say just when. But this quarter will provide an important data point in the “Stocks have climbed too far, too fast” vs. “This rally can run higher on a strong economy” debate. And the first set of high-profile earnings looks likely to throw some cold water on the most fevered market optimists.

Stronger than expected March jobs report nudges odds against June rate cut slightly

Stronger than expected March jobs report nudges odds against June rate cut slightly

The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs last month. That was far more than than the 192,000 expected by economists.The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%.

For today at least the stock market sees the report as “The glass is half full.” Yes, a stronger than expected labor market raises the odds that the Federal Reserve won’t begin its interest rate cuts at its June 12 meeting. But the strength in the economy is good for stocks. And if not June, then the Fed will cut in July, the thinking goes today.

Special Report It’s a New World for Dividend Income Investors Stock Pick #8 Verizon

Special Report It’s a New World for Dividend Income Investors Stock Pick #8 Verizon

Bookkeeping. I added Verizon (VZ) as Pick #8 for my New World for Dividend Investing Special Report (You can find it in the Special Report section of this site along with all the content on this market and its trends for Dividend Income investors. But I’m reposting it as a stand alone pick so no one misses it. Dividend Pick #8: Verizon (VZ) The question for Verizon–and for dividend investors–is remarkably similar to the question for AT&T (T): Can a management that has run up a huge debt load find the discipline to use the company’s immense cash flows to pay down debt?

About those inflation worries yesterday? Today’s ISM services report says “Never mind.”

About those inflation worries yesterday? Today’s ISM services report says “Never mind.”

The Institute for Supply Management’s composite index of services fell 1.2 points to 51.4 a four-year low. The drop in the report released today, April 3, was the second month in a row. The services report came a day after the manufacturing sector report showed costs rising in the sector. Which, of course, led some investors and traders to worry that the Federal Reserve might put off the start of interest rate cuts beyond its June 12 meeting. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which hit a new intraday high for 2024 at 4.37% yesterday, closed at 4.35% today. That’s still 17 basis points higher in a month. The relative calm today was also a result of remarks from Jerome Powell and other Fed officials that boiled down to “We told you the road to 2% inflation would be bumpy, but we haven’t seen anything in the recent data to change the direction of our policy or the timing of cuts.” A June cut, in other words, remains very much on the table.

Hot Button Moves NOW: Buy Japanese Yen

Hot Button Moves NOW: Buy Japanese Yen

Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is Buy Japanese Yen. I frankly can’r remember the last time I recommended buyinfg Yen. No one has wanted to buy the Yen for a long time, and it was the last major currency to have negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan has finally moved interest rates into positive territory. But, just barely. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are currently at about 4.2% and the gap is about 3.5% between that and the Japanese government bond. A popular short is betting that the gap will get even wider. And the Yen is under speculative attack with market pressure to driving it down lower. But the Yen is currently too low, the Bank of Japan is starting to say ans the current price against the dollsr is around where it was the last time the Bank of Japan intervened. It’s likely we’ll hear more talk of intervention in the next three months or so and because there’s such a large short position we’re likely to see a decent pop in the Yen. To take advantage of this (potential) bounce, you can use the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY). Also, I would hold on to any Japanese stocks until we see that bounce. This isn’t a long term play, nor should it be a big chunk of your portfolio, but it’s a play that could see pop in the next three months.

Tesla shocks Wall Street with size of quarterly sales drop

Tesla shocks Wall Street with size of quarterly sales drop

Today, Tesla (TSLA) reported that it delivered just 386,810 vehicles in the first three months of the year. That was the biggest difference between actual sales and Wall Street sales estimates in data going back seven years, according to Bloomberg. Most analysts expected Tesla to sell more vehicles than a year ago. Instead, deliveries ended up dropping 8.5% year-over-year. And it was the first drop in year-over-year sales since the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Manufacturing report raises fears on when, how often the Fed will cut interest rates

Manufacturing report raises fears on when, how often the Fed will cut interest rates

Could it be just two interest rate cuts in 2024 instead of three (or four as the most bullish wish)? The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index showed U.S. factory activity unexpectedly expanding in March for the first time since September 2022 on a sharp rebound in production and stronger demand. Even worse, for those counting on early and often cuts from the Fed, input costs, AKA inflation, climbed.