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Posts Tagged ‘rally’

This rally is built on the Powell Put and, now, the Vaccine Put–what could possibly go wrong?

On September 1  I argued that "Now there are two Puts supporting the market as the Vaccine Put joins the Powell Put." Those two bets--that the Federal Reserve will continue to flood the financial markets with cash and will increase the flow if the markets start to wobble and that news of a coronavirus vaccine […]

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Trick or Trend: Signs of nerves but nobody wants to leave the party?

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Something odd going on in the U.S. stock market--beyond the "won't stop" rally that is. […]

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What rally? Yes, tech has zoomed but the average stock in the S&P 500 was still down 28% from its February peak as of the Friday close.

Forget about a "V-shaped" recovery or a "W-shaped" bounce-pullback-move up again recovery. The talk on Wall Street is now about a "K-shaped" recovery where a handful of companies and their shares sooar ahead but where the average company and its stock lags way, way behind. The Standard & Poor's 500 and the NASDAQ Composite have […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

...the start of earnings season on Tuesday, July 14 when JPMorgan Chase (JPM) kicks off second quarter reports. The most important event of the week, I'd argue, however, is the Netflix (NFLX) earnings report after the close on Thursday, July 16. That report and the reaction to it will set the tone for earnings reports […]

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What do you know? A rational stock market for a day!

Stocks refused to follow the headline job gains reported today--and instead focused upon the uncertainty in the economy looking forward as the re-opening economy gave off signs that the recovery might be about to stall--or even step backward. Even though the June jobs report showed the economy gained almost 5 million jobs in June, stocks […]

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Patterns and positioning after today’s weakness in stocks

I think anyone who tells you they "know" where stocks are going next week is either smoking something (and I'd like some, please) or is looking to sell you something. In the last two weeks we've seen a market that was totally willing to look past all the evidence that coronavirus cases were surging and […]

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What happens when computer trading programs and individual investors agree? You get a 6% drop in stocks

I don't know who started the rout today, human beings or machines. But conditions were ripe for selling from both sources. On the human side, investors were looking at gains of 50% or more in the last month in stocks that had been crushed by the coronavirus recession. If you were up 50% in American […]

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Wall Street starts to watch something called the market price/liquidity ratio to justify this rally

The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index may be closing in on the February 19 record closing high of 3386.15--about 11.2% from the Friday, May 29, close at 3044.31, but some Wall Street strategists see more rally ahead--with a close at the end of 2020 near 3,500 as a popular target. That's even though unemployment […]

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S&P 500 becomes untethered from earnings growth

Yesterday's rally in the Standard & Poor's 500, which pushed the index back over 3,000, sent the forward price to earnings ratio--that is the PE based on projected earnings per share for the stocks in the index--to 23.36. That's the highest level for the forward PE since 2002. Which would be worrying enough for traders […]

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Do you see what I see?

This morning what I saw in photos and videos from this past Memorial Day weekend was a country rushing pell mell toward re-opening the economy without a thought for safety amidst a still uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak. I saw photos of crowds at beaches, on board walks, outside restaurants, and at church services with potential virus […]

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