June 30, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Investors must hedge any further S&P 500 rallies and brace for a potential “three-wave correction” in the next few months, according to the head of technical research at Bank of America Corp.
The S&P 500 Index has been on tear, rising nearly 17% since March lows, but the rally has been showing signs of exhaustion since the U.S. benchmark hit its most recent peak on June 2, BofA’s Paul Ciana wrote in a Thursday research note. He says the S&P 500 could drop as low as 6,850, a roughly 7.6% decline from current levels.
The index closed at 7,499 today, June 30.
“Summer roadmap is a three-wave correction,” Ciana wrote in the note. “The post-ceasefire rally is becoming more volatile as correction risks build,” Ciana said, Price action looks “stretched” and momentum is deteriorating, which should warrant a “defensive stance” for July through September. That’s not exactly the consensus on Wall Street.
June 8, 2026 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
The high-profile group of chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) that sold off on Friday’s stronger than expected jobs report led gains today, climbing 5.6% after the biggest selloff since 2020. Their rebound was enough for the S&P 500 to resume its advance, though most of the the stocks in the index fell. The S&P 500 gained 0.29% today. The NASDAQ 100 gained 1.58%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.01-to-1 ratio on the New York Stock Exchange. There were 129 new highs and 162 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 2,746 stocks rose and 2,142 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.28-to-1 ratio.The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 105 new highs and 164 new lows. What most interests me about today’s comments onthe bounce is how many talking heads on Wall Seeet called Friday’s selling a “reset,” or a “correction.”
April 17, 2026 | Daily JAM |
A big chunk of the 9% rally in the last 12 trading sessions is the result of short covering in some of the market’s riskier stocks. Traders and investors who had placed bets that alert pounded stocks would fall some more have been buying back those brewed shares in order to limit further losses.
April 16, 2026 | Daily JAM |
The Standard & Poor’s 500 has risen nearly 11% over the past 11 trading sessions.
March 31, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Not that there’s anything wrong with the 5.79% gain in Nvidia (NVDA) or the 6.78% gain in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) today when the Nasdaq Composite rose by 3.79% and when 82 of the Nasdaq 100’s (NDX) constituents traded higher in the session. But I would take a hard look at what technology stocks beat the index and the usual big tech guys. Here’s a list of the top performing NASDAQ 100 stocks on Tuesday.
November 29, 2025 | Daily JAM |
Buy on the Dip” is Back, baby! What other conclusion would you expect investors and traders to draw from the last month? Especially since the longer term record of this market has conditioned them to buy whenever the market dips by 5%.
So far, this rally has traced out the perfect “Buy on the Dip.” The S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 6,920.34 in October 2025, with a record closing high of 6,890.89 on October 28.The index recorded its maximum drop from the late‑October high on November 20, when it closed at 6,538.76, 5.11% below the October 28 record closing high of 6,890.89. From the close on November 20–the day after odds of a Fed rate cut bottomed–to the close on November 26, the S&P 500 gained 273.85 points, rising from 6,538.76 to 6,812.61. That’s an increase of about 4.19% over that period. If you had blindly followed the formula and bought when the dip reached 5%, you would now be looking at a gain of 4.2% in a week.
What’s not to like about that?
November 19, 2025 | Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
I’d temper my exuberance a bit. Some of the big bounce today is a result of extremely negative sentiment on AI stocks in the last few weeks and some highly publicized selling by a few big name (Peter Thiel comes to mind). The big test will come in the next few days when wecsee if Nvidia’s earnings can ignite an end of the year rally across the broader market.
November 19, 2025 | Daily JAM, NVDA, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
Nvidia’s (NVDA) revenue rose 62% to $57 billion in the fiscal third quarter, which ended October 26. Earnings were $1.30 a share. Analysts had predicted sales of $55.2 billion and earnings of $1.26 a share.
April 10, 2025 | Daily JAM |
It’s easy to get so caught up in the current increases and decreases of the Trump tariffs that we lose track of how big an increase even the reduced 10% global tariff that President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday, April 9, is from the pre-Trump rates. At the end of 2024, the average effective tariff rate for the United States was 2.2%, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
April 8, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Stocks saw their biggest rally since November 2022. As of 10:30 a.m. New York time Tuesday morning, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 3.80%. The NASDAQ Composite was higher by 4.32%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatile Index, the VIX “fear index” had dropped 19.6% to a still very elevated 37.6. So what has fueled today’s rally and the turn around from last week’s panic selling?
November 8, 2024 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s video is Rally to Continue Through December; I’m Worried About January. While I recorded this video on November 5 (before the election results), I still believed we were looking at a rally through the end of the year. Looking at the patterns of earnings and cash flow, and with the election complete, we’ll continue with this upward movement until January. Generally, rallies happen every December as money managers look to buy to “window dress” their portfolios at the end of the year. Now that the election is over, any pre-election hedges will turn into more cash entering the market in December. Fourth quarter earnings will likely be the best of the year but the problem is that 2025 will not see as much earning growth as 2024. Likely, in January, companies may issue negative guidance for the year ahead. I don’t expect a depression or recession, but I do think we’ll see a slow down/pull back and we’re certainly due for 5-10% correction. Continue to ride the wave through December, and then look to make some profits in January. Selling in the new year will also mean you don’t have to take the tax hit this year
November 5, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
I continue to see this rally continuing through the fourth quarter of 2024vbefore faltering in the first quarter of 2025. That call does assume that we’ll get through today’s election and its aftermath with relatively little actual violence–protests in the streets from the losing side and lots of court cases, but no mass armed violence. And it assumes that projected earnings growth in the fourth quarter will live up to expectations and show the highest growth rate in all of 2024. No one knows what this post-election period will bring. So let’s move onto assumption #2: How likely is it that fourth quarter growth will hold up?
