August 7, 2026 | Daily JAM, MSFT, NVDA |
Here’s a big question and worry about booming AI stocks: How much of the revenue at companies like Nividia, OpenAI, Oracle, and Microsoft reprints real revenue from arm-length deals and how much is the result of circular transaction that essentially reflect arrangements in which a seller is suppling cash or credit so a buyers can purchase its gear chips, or compute power. That’s, of course, an issue for anyone trying to value stocks in the sector. Real revenue deserves a higher multiple that circular revenue. But it’s also a big issue for anyone worried about the possibility that a flameout at one company could lead to a giant bonfire of the valuations across the entire sector. Recent financial disclosures from Microsoft (MSFT) shed light on this issue.
July 18, 2026 | AAPL, AMD, AMZN, ASML, AVGO, Daily JAM, GOOG, INTC, Jubak Picks, MRVL, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which stacks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has moved into Bear market territory with a drop of more than 20% from its June 22 high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is marginally short of the 29% drop that defines a Bear market. The pain was by no means equally distributed.
July 1, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Retail investors’ activity in the technology stocks known as the “Magnificent Seven” hit a four-year low in recent days after having been muted for months, according to Citigroup equity strategists. Retail traders were responsible for just 6% of total trading over the past five days through Friday, June 26, in the group that includes Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla., a team led by Stuart Kaiser wrote in a Sunday note. Volumes in these stocks over five-day periods frequently topped 20% of total trading in 2023 and 2024, and held mostly above 15% in 2025. The trend suggests conviction appears to be waning in a group that’s been a market favorite for years. Volume started to decline late last year and the drop persisted into 2026, Kaiser told Bloomberg in a Monday interview.
June 17, 2026 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Long Term, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
Microsoft (MSFT) has abandoned plans to lease roughly $3 billion in cloud computing infrastructure from Oracle (ORCL). The collapse of the multi-year deal highlights how AI titans are increasingly forced to negotiate massive infrastructure-sharing agreements win an effort to work around bottlenecks in compute capacity and GPU chip supply.
And while one rain trop doesn’t make a hurricane, the collapse of this deal–and the vagueness of company explanations–are sure to focus even more attention on growth projections for AI companies.
April 26, 2026 | AAPL, AMZN, Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
This week brings a huge earnings test for AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META and MSFT. I’m going to sell Microsoft out of my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio on Monday, April 27, ahead of the earnings report. That position is up 319% since I initiated it on June 14., 2018. I am keeping Microsoft in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. That position is up 40% since I initiated it on January 18, 2022.
March 8, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Journey back with me to the heady days of 1999 when another technology boom pushed stocks to record highs on the promise of revolutionizing everything. Why is this exercise important?Because it’s a real life example of the work on the role of monopolies in our economy by economists like Joan Robinson and Paul Sweezy. Their work begins with the extreme excess returns that companies with effective monopoly power generate–and points to the important role that monopolies play in the business cycle of boom and bust. And because monopoly economics are critical to deciding if the current generation of AI stocks are really going to be worth what investors now say they are.
February 10, 2026 | Daily JAM, TSM |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reported that January sales grew at their fastest clip in months. The contract chipmaker for Nvidia, Apple, and virtually every AI company reported a 37% rise in January revenue to $12.7 billion, above the 30% revenue growth the company projects for the full year. Those results confirm the company’s decision to budget as much as $56 billion in capital spending this year, which would be up 25% from 2025. The ADRs rose 1.83% today, Tuesday, February 10, to close at $361.91. For investors, the question is what next. The Wall Street consensus target is $392–410, implying a low‑ to mid‑teens upside from the current price. Is that enough reason to hold onto the shares? Is there a reason to buy even more?
February 2, 2026 | Daily JAM |
A Next Big Thing doesn’t need to start with a blank slate. Yes, it can be a whole new industry or sector–as is true with quantum computing or nuclear fusion. But it doesn’t have to be. Artificial intelligence, for example may look like it came out of nowhere but here were precursor companies and technologies such as neural network computation. And sometimes an existing sector can get a big jolt that serves to accelerate grow to such a degree that it makes it see like the sector came out of nowhere. And where the acceleration to growth is big enough so that it reorders the ranks of the companies that had been dominating the sector. Right now I think that’s a good description of what’s about to happen in the cyber security sector. Thanks to AI and the coming emergence of quantum computing we’re about to see a huge surge in growth for the companies in the sector.
January 25, 2026 | AAPL, Daily JAM, GLD, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Mid Term, MSFT, NVDA, PAAS, SCCO, Top 50 Stocks, WPM |
A week of Big Tech earnings reports will confirm or reverse what sure looks like a sector rotation away from tech shares and into metal and mining company stocks.
January 24, 2026 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Will OpenAI go broke this year? 2027% Never?–with the company navigating its way to a company-saving initial public offering in 2026 or 2027?
The company’s current attempt to raise an additional $50 billion in venture capital from Middle Eastern investors will certainly help answer the question.
And the answer isn’t of interest only to those private investors who have put $57.9–$64 billion into the company across 11 funding rounds. OpenAI owes so much money to the companies supplying its chips and building its data centers–an estimated $1.4 trillion in contingent liabilities– that an OpenAI failure would dent–or worse–the entire technology sector.
January 20, 2026 | AAPL, AMD, Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, MSFT, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks |
Prices for memory chips are forecast to soar in 2026. but what just as bad/even worse it looks like chip customers are looking at serious supply shortages during the year.
Higher prices and supply shortages could be enough to put earnings at risk at some high multiple cloud and AI companies.
November 2, 2025 | AMZN, Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, MSFT, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks |
No slowdown on plans for AI capital spending in earnings results this past week from Big Tech. Alphabet/Google (GOOG) said it was increasing what it planned to spend on A.I. data center projects this year by $6 billion, after spending nearly $64 billion over the past nine months. Microsoft (MSFT) said it had spent $35 billion in its latest quarter, $5 billion more than it had told investors to expect just a few months ago.
Amazon (AMZN) said it would be “very aggressive” in adding more data centers and would spend $125 billion this year-— and even more next year. Meta Platforms (META) raised its spending forecast to at least $70 billion by the end of the year, which would be nearly double what it spent last year. The stock market reaction wasn’t unalloyed joy. Investors seemed generally positive on spending plans from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. And skeptical of Meta’s strategy and spending.
