August 7, 2026 | Daily JAM, MSFT, NVDA |
Here’s a big question and worry about booming AI stocks: How much of the revenue at companies like Nividia, OpenAI, Oracle, and Microsoft reprints real revenue from arm-length deals and how much is the result of circular transaction that essentially reflect arrangements in which a seller is suppling cash or credit so a buyers can purchase its gear chips, or compute power. That’s, of course, an issue for anyone trying to value stocks in the sector. Real revenue deserves a higher multiple that circular revenue. But it’s also a big issue for anyone worried about the possibility that a flameout at one company could lead to a giant bonfire of the valuations across the entire sector. Recent financial disclosures from Microsoft (MSFT) shed light on this issue.
July 8, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
I sold Nvidia (NVDA) out go my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio on March 18 at a closing price of $180.40 My thinking then was that after a huge run Nvidia’s share had moved to an excessively optomistic valuation and it was time to give the shares a rest with expectations that the shares would correct and offer a lower rick re-entry price.
Turns out I was a “bit” early. Nvidia continued to climb until it hit an all-time high of $235.47. The shares closed at $196.93 on July 7. Now, though, I see the rebuying opportunity I was expecting. After losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in less than two months, Nvidia Corp.’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom kicked off and sent the shares into the stratosphere.
July 1, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Retail investors’ activity in the technology stocks known as the “Magnificent Seven” hit a four-year low in recent days after having been muted for months, according to Citigroup equity strategists. Retail traders were responsible for just 6% of total trading over the past five days through Friday, June 26, in the group that includes Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla., a team led by Stuart Kaiser wrote in a Sunday note. Volumes in these stocks over five-day periods frequently topped 20% of total trading in 2023 and 2024, and held mostly above 15% in 2025. The trend suggests conviction appears to be waning in a group that’s been a market favorite for years. Volume started to decline late last year and the drop persisted into 2026, Kaiser told Bloomberg in a Monday interview.
June 8, 2026 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
The high-profile group of chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron Technology (MU) that sold off on Friday’s stronger than expected jobs report led gains today, climbing 5.6% after the biggest selloff since 2020. Their rebound was enough for the S&P 500 to resume its advance, though most of the the stocks in the index fell. The S&P 500 gained 0.29% today. The NASDAQ 100 gained 1.58%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.01-to-1 ratio on the New York Stock Exchange. There were 129 new highs and 162 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 2,746 stocks rose and 2,142 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.28-to-1 ratio.The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 105 new highs and 164 new lows. What most interests me about today’s comments onthe bounce is how many talking heads on Wall Seeet called Friday’s selling a “reset,” or a “correction.”
May 27, 2026 | AMZN, Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is poised to become the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth over the next two years, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs projects that beneficiaries of AI infrastructure investment will account for roughly half of S&P 500 earnings per share growth in both 2026 and 2027. That’s two years–for the math challenged.
April 20, 2026 | NVDA |
In aggregate, the “Magnificent 7” companies have reported higher (year-over-year) earnings growth than the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 over the past several quarters. Is this trend expected to continue in the first quarter of 2026?
The answer is yes. with one huge caveat. For the first quarter of 2026, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the “Magnificent 7” companies is 22.8%. The blended (combining actual and estimated results) earnings growth rate for the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500 for the first quarter is 10.1%. However… Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to be the top contributor to (year-over-year) earnings growth for the “Magnificent 7” companies (and the entire S&P 500) for first quarter of 2026. If Nvidia were excluded, the estimated earnings growth for the “Magnificent 7” companies for first quarter of 2026 would fall to 6.4% from 22.8%.
March 17, 2026 | Daily JAM, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
When the CEO extends the company’s $500 billion revenue projection for 2026 by adding another $500 billion for 2027–we’re talking $1 trillion in revenue here, folks–and the stock barely budges, I think we’re looking at a stock in need of a valuation reset. That’s exactly what happened to shares of Nvidia (NVDA) yesterday and today, March 16 and 17.And it’s why I’m selling Nvida out of my 50 Stocks Portfolio tomorrow, March 18. I expect I’ll be back into Nvidia shares when the valuation is less stretched–either because of a pull back in the shares or because projected revenues have turned into booked earnings (or some of each.) I’ve done this rotation in and out of Nvidia once before, selling in late 2023 and then rebuying in December 2023 for a 290% gain as of the close on March 17, 2026. Nvidia shares predawn 1.75% for 2026 as of the close on March 16.
March 8, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Journey back with me to the heady days of 1999 when another technology boom pushed stocks to record highs on the promise of revolutionizing everything. Why is this exercise important?Because it’s a real life example of the work on the role of monopolies in our economy by economists like Joan Robinson and Paul Sweezy. Their work begins with the extreme excess returns that companies with effective monopoly power generate–and points to the important role that monopolies play in the business cycle of boom and bust. And because monopoly economics are critical to deciding if the current generation of AI stocks are really going to be worth what investors now say they are.
February 25, 2026 | Daily JAM, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose 3% in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the company reported fiscal fourth-quarter results and guidance that topped Wall Street’s forecasts by a wide margin.
February 25, 2026 | Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Top 50 Stocks |
China’s AI disruptor DeepSeek is preparing to introduce a new model. Reuters had initially reported that DeepSeek would launch its next‑generation model “V4,” focused on coding, in mid‑February 2026. Rumors now peg the expected release window as “Q1–Q2 2026.” The mid‑February window has passed but context‑window changes and internal benchmark leaks signal that V4 is close. And it will be a BIG DEAL for AI competitors AND ai chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA). A big enough deal that the V4 release will move the entire tech sector and quite probably the stock market as a whole.
February 22, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Nvidia (NVDA) reports fiscal fourth quarter 2026 earnings after the close of trading on Wednesday. This will be a huge test of market sentiment. The basic question is can Nvidia report any number good enough to move the stock higher against the current flood of negative sentiment around Big Tech.
January 25, 2026 | AAPL, Daily JAM, GLD, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Mid Term, MSFT, NVDA, PAAS, SCCO, Top 50 Stocks, WPM |
A week of Big Tech earnings reports will confirm or reverse what sure looks like a sector rotation away from tech shares and into metal and mining company stocks.
