Short Term
November 19, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Sure, deep worries about growth, profits, and soaring capital spending in the AI sectors were a major contributors to the market sell off. But let’s not forget the extraordinary reversal in investor sentiment about the likelihood of another 25 basis point cut in interest rates at the Fed’s December 10 meeting. On October 17, the CME FedWatch Tool calculated that the Fed Funds Futures market had priced in a 93.6% chance of another 25-basis point cut in interest rates. Today November 19, the market was pricing in only 32.8% odds of a cut. the odds of the Fed doing nothing to cut rates on December 10 had climbed to 67.2%. AI worries aside, that big a shift in expectations–when investors had just about decided that the Fed would cut again–puts strong downward pressure on stock prices.
As a reminder of how the ground has shifted in just a few weeks, today, November 19, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its October 29 meeting.
November 4, 2025 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Mid Term, Short Term, Special Reports |
This is a very difficult stock market. Even as stocks climb to new record highs. On the one hand, even investors who are all in, maybe even overweight to the long side, worry that this rally isn’t sustainable for much longer. By most historical standards valuations are off the charts. I get a steady stream of stories and posts asking whether XYZ stock has climbed to faro fast. Volatility on somedays can be downright scary with relatively minor events leading to big market moves. It’s simply very hard to stay on board this rally. On the other hand, it’s very hard to get off the train. I see lots of Wall Street analysts cutting recommendations from “buy” to “hold” on valuation fears, but I see almost no one saying “sell.” FOMO–fear of missing out–is just too strong. Which is totally understandable. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index was up 25.02% in 2024 and was up another 18.11% in 2025 to date through October 27. Market leaders have racked up even bigger gains. AI chip icon Nvidia (NVDA) was up 171% in 2024 and has gained another 39% in 2025 through October 27. It’s insanely difficult to walk away from those kinds of gains. So what’d you do?
November 3, 2025 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
It’s been hard to tell what the individual announcements mean. Starbucks fired 900 corporate employees in September, but the chain had already done a February culling as part of new management’s drive to get the company back on track. In October, Target Corp. eliminated 1,800 roles to help the beleaguered retailer move faster. Amazon cut 14,000 corporate jobs and blamed artificial intelligence. But we’re starting to see signs of a worrying trend. After a labor market that seemed frozen in place–low hire but low fire–September seems to have brought job cuts across the economy. A report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed almost 950,000 U.S. job cuts this year through September, the highest year-to-date total since 2020. And that was before the heavy October run of cuts.
November 2, 2025 | AMZN, Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, MSFT, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks |
No slowdown on plans for AI capital spending in earnings results this past week from Big Tech. Alphabet/Google (GOOG) said it was increasing what it planned to spend on A.I. data center projects this year by $6 billion, after spending nearly $64 billion over the past nine months. Microsoft (MSFT) said it had spent $35 billion in its latest quarter, $5 billion more than it had told investors to expect just a few months ago.
Amazon (AMZN) said it would be “very aggressive” in adding more data centers and would spend $125 billion this year-— and even more next year. Meta Platforms (META) raised its spending forecast to at least $70 billion by the end of the year, which would be nearly double what it spent last year. The stock market reaction wasn’t unalloyed joy. Investors seemed generally positive on spending plans from Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon. And skeptical of Meta’s strategy and spending.
September 8, 2025 | APD, CMI, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, HON, Morning Briefing, NKE, Short Term, Special Reports |
You remember what The Rolling Stones sing? “You can’t always get what you want”?
In this historically expensive market with a slowing economy, with a falling dollar and a climbing government deficit, where no one knows what the Trump tariffs regime we lookalike in 60 days, and where stagflation where inflation rises even as the economy’s growth rate slows I know what I want: some safe dividend stocks to take some of the risk out of my portfolio, with tasty 8% dividend yields, with solid financials and low debt, and with relatively low exposure to any downturn in the economic cycle. Is that too much to ask? Well, apparently, Yes. Because I can’t find any stocks that fit the bill. Stocks paying anywhere near that yield, for example, come with more rick than I want to take on in this market and this economy. Especially because the last thing I want to do is add high-risk, go-for-broke dividend stocks to the “safe” side of my portfolio. But the Stones go on to advise “but if you try sometimes, you’ll find/You get what you need.” And that’s what this Special Report “10 better dividend stocks for a dangerous market” is all about.
May 25, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks |
The most important event of the short week ahead will be Nvidia’S (NVDA) report–after the market close on Wednesday, May 28, of earnings for the fiscal first quarter of 2026 that ended in April 2025.
Expect volatility. Both in Nvidia’s results and in the market where the numbers are likely to move stocks in the tech sector. Going into the report even analyst consensus estimates were volatIle with Zacks Investment Research putting the consensus estimate at 80 cents a share. Matching the higher consensus would mean year over year earnings growth of 44%. Revenue is projected at $43.4 billion. That would be 66% growth year over year.
May 23, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
In a Truth Social post today, Friday, May 23, President Donald Trump threatened a new 50% tariff on the European Union and a 25% tariff on Apple if the company failed to move iPhone manufacturing to the United states.
May 22, 2025 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s video is Are We Too Complacent About Complacency? The market seems extremely relaxed right now, even though it probably shouldn’t be. Moody’s recently downgraded U.S. debt, yet the market barely reacted—in fact, stocks even ticked up slightly. Then, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO, warned about rising risks—geopolitical tensions, inflation, tariffs—but the S&P 500 only dipped a tiny bit, and the VIX (the “fear index”) stayed stubbornly low. Even stranger, investors are piling into more risk—-SPACs (remember those?) are suddenly back in fashion, and there’s a growing push to roll back financial regulations. Meanwhile, Treasury yields inched up, but overall, the market is acting like nothing’s wrong. Are we being too complacent? It sure seems that way. Some investors might be hedging quietly, but the broader market just keeps charging ahead like everything’s fine and I don’t think it is.
May 17, 2025 | COST, Daily JAM, Short Term, WMT |
Look for a flood of earnings news from retailers. After last week’s guidance from Walmart (WMT) that it would be raising prices because if the Trump tariffs, investors–and the Federal Reserve–will be waiting to see if retailers without Walmart’s pricing and logistics clout will paint an even more dire picture on price increases–and thus future inflation.
May 15, 2025 | Daily JAM, Short Term, VIX, Volatility |
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) dropped another 4.24% today to 17.84. I think, once again, the financial markets have become way too complacent about risk. And so it’s time to buy Call Options on the Vix “fear index,” betting that at least one of the many potential volatility events on the horizon puts some fear back into the markets.
May 13, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation ticked up month to month in April from March. but the annual rate of inflation fell. The all-items CPI rose 0.2% in April. that reversed a slight decline in March. The annualized rate of inflation fell to 2.3%. The annual rate of headline inflation is the lowest since early 2021. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose at an annual rate of 2.8%. That was the same annual rate as in March. The Federal Reserve watches core inflation, rather than all-items inflation.
April 23, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Despite the rally on Tuesday and Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index is still down around 4% since April 2, the day President Donald Trump announced his tariff plans. Where do stocks go from here in the short term? Depends on the headlines on tariffs and the Federal Reserve, I’d say But the trend in volatility is clear. Stocks are swinging wildly day to day. Since April 2, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has posted five declines of more than 2% and two gains of more than 2% in just 14 sessions.
