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Archive for the ‘Short Term’ Category

Senate passes Hong Kong support bill, House to take it up today scrambling China trade talks

As you might imagine, this complicates things. Just as U.S. and Chinese negotiators struggle to put together a Part 1 deal to de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war, the two houses of the U.S. Congress are moving to pass legislation that would support pro-democracy protestors in Hong Kong. China has officially labeled the legislation a gross […]

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Oil prices under pressure as OPEC meeting looms

Oil prices are down significantly today, November 19, on speculation that data to be released tomorrow will show a fourth straight weekly increase in U.S. oil inventories and nervousness about a successful conclusion to U.S.-China Part 1 trade talks. As of 1:30 p.m. New York time U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate was down 2.89% to […]

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White House again says China deal is near; Wall Street says show us the signatures

The White House rolled out another round of its ongoing soap opera "As the Deal Turns." starring, this week Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow (again.) The stock market yawned. “If you look at whenever they say ‘trade war is on, trade tariffs are off,’--if you look at that maneuver, […]

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Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020

Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning's testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee.  “We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long […]

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Tariff roll back or not? Markets certainly don’t know.

The uncertainty extends even to whether or not a Part 1 trade deal between the United States and China will even get signed in 2019. Yesterday, China’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng said negotiators had “agreed to remove additional tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement. And White House economic adviser […]

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Markets climb on Chinese statements promising tariff roll backs on signing of Part 1 deal

Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Geo Feng set off a rally in financial markets today by saying,  “In the past two weeks, top negotiators had serious, constructive discussions and agreed to remove the additional tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement.” Stocks and bonds gave up part of their gains on a later […]

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Failure to set Trump-Xi meeting place and date stalls market

It now looks likely that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping may not be able to sign that Part 1 trade deal until December. The two sides still haven't set a date or a place. The Chinese have ruled out the first two U.S. suggestions of Iowa and Alaska and attention has shifted to […]

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Ho, hum–another day, another all time high driven by FOMO

Today, Monday November 4, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its first new all-time high since July. The Standard & Poor's 500 and the NASDAQ Composite also saw new highs. Stocks gave up some of their gains into the close but the Dow still finished up 0.39% for the day and the S&P 500 closed […]

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Where and when will President Trump and President Xi meet to sign a Part 1 Trade Deal?

Continued political protests against the government of President Sebastian Pinera have led to the cancellation of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit that was to have taken place in Santiago, Chile, in November. 20 people have been killed in the protests and more than 7,000 arrested. (The protests are driven by rising inequality in Chile where […]

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Oil earnings expected to disappoint starting with BP tomorrow and then continuing with ExxonMobil and Chevron on Friday

The oil supermajors--ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX),Royal Dutch Shell (RDS), Total (TOT) and BP (BP)--are expected to show a 42% year over year average plummet in third quarter earnings when they report earnings this week. That's an even bigger slump than the 18% drop in oil pries during the period. You can expect oil company CEOs […]

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