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Archive for the ‘Short Term’ Category

Economy loses 701,000 jobs in March; April looks much worse

The U.S economy lost 701,000 jobs in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in March from 3.5%, a 50-year low, in February. The survey behind the numbers was completed by March 12 so it didn't capture the full carnage of job cuts in the last half […]

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Walgreens latest stock to punch holes in a coronavirus revenue growth story

The theory was that Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) would actually benefit from the coronavirus pandemic as consumers stocked up at the drugstore chain in preparation for the coronavirus shelter-in-place orders now becoming common in the United States and Europe. But today, April 2, the company reported a steep drop in U.S. same-store sales dating from […]

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Initial claims for unemployment soar to 6.65 million

I'm finding it hard to wrap my head around exactly how bad the economy is and how fast the collapse has been. Today's report of 6.65 million new claims for unemployment for the week ended March 28 exploded through the record number of new claims set just the prior week at 3.31 million. (The initial […]

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I don’t think the market fell far enough today to rally tomorrow if unemployment news is merely bad instead of horrible

Remember last week. Stocks rallied despite the news that initial claims for unemployment hit a record high of 3.28 million. The markets decided to look past the unemployment number and focus on the positive in the passage of a $2.2 trillion coronavirus rescue bill by Congress. How about this week? The report of new claims […]

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The retail job loss river turns into a deluge

Today, Monday, March 31, Macy's (M) announced it will furlough most of its130,000 workers after shutting 775 stores. Kohl’s furloughed 80,000 workers. Gap another 80,000 each. Gannett announced furloughs for newspaper employees who earn more than $38,000. Sysco, the country’s largest food distributor, also reported thousands of furloughs and layoffs worldwide. Other retailers furloughing employees in […]

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Bulls almost pull the S&P 500 even today, but then late selling kicks in

For a while it looked like bullish investors and traders would manage to pull the market even into the close. That would have been quite a positive feat after a huge 3-ay rally and going into a weekend. At 3:27 p.m.New York time today the Standard & Poor's 500 was down only 0.18% at 2615.58 […]

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This is the best 3-day rally since–ready for it–1931

Okay, you knew the punchline was coming. After dropping 11.9% in 1929 as the Crash and Great Depression got rolling, the Standard & Poor's 500 fell 28.5% in 1930. And then, in 1931, it staged that big short-term rally that we've just surpassed. After starting the year at 15.85 (Yes, the S&P 500 way back […]

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Senate fails to pass coronavirus rescue bill as procedural vote fails

I've been operating on the assumption for the last week of so that the Senate in particular and Congress in general would, of course, pass a coronavirus rescue bill. (I have been calling it a "stimulus: bill but given how quickly the economy, unemployment, and small businesses have headed into a downward whirlpool, I think […]

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S&P 500 drops 15% for the week

Let me emphasize that "for the week." The storm of bad news continued today with the European Union saying that the 2020 recession in that bloc may be as bad as 2009. Goldman Sachs warned that the U.S. economy may shrink 24% year over year in the second quarter. Oil fell again with government announcements […]

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Credit markets “sell everything” call means Fed will have to eventually support everything

In the credit markets investors and traders are selling everything. Safe. Risky. Doesn't make any difference. And that's creating a potential shortage of dollars. When you sell corporate bonds, you take dollars out of the credit market. When companies draw down credit lines at banks, they take dollars out of the credit market. "It’s been […]

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