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Archive for the ‘Short Term’ Category

Powell signals interest rate cuts but says that U.S.-China trade war is outside Fed’s policy framework

Good news and bad news for investors betting on a signal of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve in Jerome Powell's speech at today's Jackson Hole central bank festival Financial markets were hoping that Powell would indicate that the Fed is thinking about a deeper than 25 basis point interest rate cut at its […]

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China retaliates; Trump promises his retaliation to their retaliation this afternoon

Xi Jinping and Donald Trump upstaged Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell this morning. Powell's Jackson Hole speech this morning was supposed to be the day's big market event. (More on this speech in a later post.) But this morning China announced that it would retaliate to the last round of additional 10% tariffs on $300 […]

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Tomorrow’s opening speech by Powell at Jackson Hole central bank gabfest gets more and more interesting

The financial markets aren't backing off. They're pricing in high odds of another 65 basis points to 75 basis points in interest rate cuts by the end of 2019. That means a 25 or 50 basis point cut at the September 18 meeting followed by another 25 to 50 basis point cut at the December […]

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No consensus at the Fed in July for faster interest rate cuts, minutes show

The financial market didn't get what it had hoped for out of today's release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July 31 meeting. The market was hoping for something in the minutes that pointed toward a shift in Fed policy toward an extended cycle of interest rate cuts. What it got instead was evidence […]

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Market struggled to find direction Thursday; I don’t expect much direction ahead of the weekend

Up 0.43% at 10:12 a.m. on Thursday, the Standard & Poor's 500 index was down by 0.28 by 11.:20 am. Then up again by 0.41% by 12:06 p.m. And down again by 0.03% at 3 p.m. The index rallied into the close, getting as high as 2854.38 at 3:53 before closing a 2847.60, a gain […]

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Retail sales stronger than expected–there’s hope yet of fending off a recession

Retail sales in July climbed 0.7% from June. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had predicted a 0.3% climb. Retail sales excluding autos were up 1.0% month over month. Economists had projected a 03% gain.. Nonstore retail sales (that is the Internet) were up 2.8% after a 1.9% jump in June. Food services were among the strongest […]

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The drop in job openings worries me more than an inverted yield curve

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 800.49 points today, or 3.05%; the Standard & Poor's 500 finished 2.93% lower; and the NASDAQ Composite lost 3.02%. One reason for the plunge was an intraday inversion in the Treasury yield curve with the yield on the 10-year Treasury dropping below the yield on the 2-year Treasury.(For […]

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A fine volatility this is–just kind of strange

This post should be song to the tune of "A Fine Romance." (It helps if you can dance like Fred Astaire. Or sing like Ella.) "A fine romance, with no kisses A fine romance, my friend, this is We should be like a couple of hot tomatoes But you're as cold as yesterday's mashed potatoes […]

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The stock market seems resigned to a long delay in U.S.-China trade talks

This morning President Donald Trump said that talks with China planned for next month could be called off.   “We’ll see whether or not we keep our meeting in September,” Trump said as he left the White House for a fundraiser in the Hamptons. “If we do, that’s fine. If we don’t, that’s fine.” What's interesting […]

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People’s Bank signals that yuan devaluation will be orderly

U.S. stocks rallied strongly today, Thursday, August 8, after the People's Bank of China set its daily reference rate for its currency at 7.0039 to the dollar. That was stronger than the 7.0156 yuan to the dollar overnight estimate of 21 analysts and trader surveyed by Bloomberg. (The bank sets a middle point for the […]

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