Short Term

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Interest Rate Cut Transition Going Well

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Interest Rate Cut Transition Going Well

Today’s video is Interest Rate Cut Transition Going Well. Well, so far. Until Wednesday, anyway. Last week we had another batch of bad inflation news: the inflation rate has stopped its decline,  and even crept upward a bit. However, the market hasn’t panicked. Wall Street has moved the goalpost for a rate cut from the upcoming March 20 meeting to the June or July meeting. Last week’s bad news dropped the odds for a rate cut by the June 12 meeting on the CME Fedwatch Tool to 63.1%, down slightly from the previous day. The odds of no move on the June 12 meeting are on their way to 40%. Investors have set their sights on July. This will likely continue to push the market sideways until April when we get a bit of earnings excitement, again, around AI. Consolidation after the rally early in the year isn’t a bad thing for the market, and as long as no one panics, I think we’ll see a relatively smooth transition to the eventual interest rate cuts. 

Hotter than expected Wholesale Price Inflation adds to inflation/interest rate fears

Hotter than expected Wholesale Price Inflation adds to inflation/interest rate fears

It’s becoming a refrain. Today another inflation measure came in hotter than expected. Which is the problem. It’s har to ignore the possibility that inflation has stopped its steady decline and its recent months has started to move up again. Is there a problem here beyond a stickiness in prices that is preventing the Federal Reserve from reaching its inflation goals? And that might be endangering even a June timetable for an initial interest rate cut? Prices paid to U.S. producers rose in February by the most in six months.

Core CPI inflation disappoints again for February

Core CPI inflation disappoints again for February

Core CPI inflation came in hotter than expected in February for a second straight month. The core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased 0.4% from January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The year over year inflation rate rose to 3.8%. Economists had been projecting 3.7% annual rate. Core CPI over the past three months rose an annualized 4.2%, the highest annual rate since June. That adds to worries that the improvement in inflation has stalled in recent months.

Don’t stand in front of the Nvidia train right now–shorts lose $3 billion and counting

Get ready for the Nvidia circus

Can you hear the barkers yelling to the crowd? It’s Wall Street analysts rushing to raise their target prices for Nvidia (NVDA) ahead of next week’s quarterly earnings report. On February 21, after the close, Nvidia is expected to report earnings of $4.18 share, up from $0.65 a share in the quarter a year ago, on revenue of $20.5 billion. And even though the stock is up 47% for 2024 as of the February 15 close and up 219% for the last year, Wall Street analysts are rushing to increase their target price on the shares.

Another day, another hotter than hoped inflation number

Another day, another hotter than hoped inflation number

The Labor Department reported Friday that its producer price index—which tracks inflation before it reaches consumers—rose 0.3% from December to January. The index had dropped -0.1% in December. Measured year over year, producer prices rose by 0.9% in January. But the month to month increase in producer prices and at a higher month to month rate is the latest sign that getting inflation the “last mile” down to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate is going to be harder and take longer than expected.