Volatility
December 8, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LYSDY, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
If the United States (and other technology economies such as Japan and Europe) are serious about reducing China’s dominance in the crucial minerals called rare earths (and I believe they are), then you need to realize as an investor that in the next five years all roads to that goal lead through Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY) and MP Materials (MP). Both stocks are up hugely in 2025, but I think you need to own them. Buy half a position now and add on any dip, or dollar cost average over the next 12 months (with a bigger monthly buy on any dip) but own them. I have owned Lynas in my Jubak Picks Portfolio since October 18, 2022. The position is up 88% in that period as of the close on December 8. The ADR is up 78% in 2025 to date. On a dip I will add it to the long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. MP Materials is up 298% in 2025 through December 8. Tomorrow, December 9, I will add MP Materials to my Volatility Portfolio. On a dip I will add it to the Jubak Picks Portfolio.
October 19, 2025 | Daily JAM, GNRC, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Pick #5 for the energy crisis is Generac
October 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
The government shutdown will push gold past $4,000 an ounce. That would be a double in less than two years. Gold closed at $3908 an ounce on Friday. Gold was hot before the shutdown because it benefits from lower interest rates that reduce the opportunity cost of holding it, and from higher inflation, which reinforces its role as a store of value. It also rises when the dollar falls, both because it’s priced in dollars and because it competes with cash. All three factors were working in gold’s favor. And then came the shutdown, which further weakened faith in the U.S. dollar.
September 30, 2025 | CCJ, Daily JAM, GNRC, JCI, Jubak Picks, LNG, Long Term, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
You don’t need the Department of Energy or the Energy Information Administration to tell you we have an energy crisis. (Good thing since they’re shut down with the rest of the Federal government today.) All you need to do is look at your electricity bill. This summer monthly home electric bills jumped in Trenton, New Jersey, for a typical home by $26. In Philadelphia, it increased about $17. And in Columbus, Ohio, it spiked $27. And your monthly bill doesn’t capture the full damage. In California,residential electric rates are up 62% in five years. In Maryland residential rates are up 54% in five years. Most frustratingly–and most importantly for investors–those bills don’t explain the nature of the crisis.
Or more accurately “crises.” Because we’re the middle of three, overlapping and interlocking energy crises. That are playing out on different timeframes that range from NOW to the next 5 to 10 years. It’s that last point that’s critically important for investors. Because to make money–and let’s be clear: like in all crises there’s money to be made investing in these three crises–you’ve got to understand the nature of each crisis and buy into it at the right time. Not so early that you sell in disappointment because your profits haven’t arrived yet. Not so late that all themes tasty profits are gone. This Special Report is about untangling the 3 energy crises, giving you a timeline for investing in each, and then calling out 10 picks you cause to profit from theses crises. Ya, ready?
September 3, 2025 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Foreign central bank holdings of the precious metal have topped holdings of U.S. Treasurys for the first time since 1996, according to Bloomberg data
August 21, 2025 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
In the last few sessions, as the market worries about what Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will say about inflation and interest rates and the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, volatility as measured by the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has started to climb. The VIX rose another 6.37% to 16.69 today, Thursday, August 21. That’s a big move from the low of 14.78 on August 19. But the increase is nowhere near enough to save the VIX Call options I bought back on May 18. Those options had strike prices of 22 and 26–and consequently they expired worthless on the expiration date of August 20.
Back on July 19 I worried that this market was determined not to price in risk and I warned that anyone who owned these options had only about a two week window for the markets to begin more realistically to price in risk. If that move didn’t start by August 3 or so, it would be time to sell and take losses in this volatility play.
When I wrote that on July 19, the VIX was at 16.45. From there the VIX moved consistently lower–well except for a very brief spike to 20.37 on August–hitting 14.36 on August 13.
May 28, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, TBF, Volatility |
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW video is Short the 30-year treasury. In my last video, I talked about how complacent the market seems—but one area where there’s definitely no complacency is the long end of the bond market, especially the 30-year Treasuries. Investors worldwide are worried about rising U.S. deficits, soaring debt interest payments, and Congress’s inability to pass a budget on time. If you want to capitalize on this, one way is to short long-term Treasuries. You could use options, but timing those can be tricky. Instead, I recommend the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBF), which moves inversely to long-term Treasury bonds. It’s not cheap (0.95% expense ratio), but it’s up 16.3% in 2024 and has solid momentum with a gain of 6.76% in the last three months. I’m adding TBF to my Volatility Portfolio and my Jubak Picks Portfolio as a hedge against Treasury risks. You may want to wait until the spending bill feels a bit more settled, but I’m jumping in early to track how it plays out.
May 26, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts, TBF, Volatility |
I’m adding shares of the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBF) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios tomorrow, May 28, as a play in the continued decline in prices at the long end of the Treasury market.
May 15, 2025 | Daily JAM, Short Term, VIX, Volatility |
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) dropped another 4.24% today to 17.84. I think, once again, the financial markets have become way too complacent about risk. And so it’s time to buy Call Options on the Vix “fear index,” betting that at least one of the many potential volatility events on the horizon puts some fear back into the markets.
May 9, 2025 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
22.53. That was the close on the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) today. It’s safe to say that stock market volatility is way down. Back on April 21, the “fear index” was at 34.21. On April 8, at the bottom of the turmoil that followed on the April 2 tariffs, the index hit 52.33. But even before that spike, fear had been climbing among investors to 27.86 on March 10 from the very complacent 16.43 on January 31. That was substantially below the 10-year average for the VIX at 18.66. So now the question is how low the VIX will go. And when will it be time to buy VIX Call Options again on a bet that volatility will return.
April 28, 2025 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility |
Today, Monday April 28, I’m selling my last two Call Options on the VIX, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index. Not because we’re done with volatility. No way. I expect lots more volatility in the weeks and months ahead. And I expect to put this trade on again. But because these two options expire on May 21
April 3, 2025 | Daily JAM, Special Reports, Volatility |
Today the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 4.25%, dropping into a correction. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 5.43%, also into a correction. The small cap Russell 2000 lost 6.59%. We don’t have to search for the cause of todays drop: yesterday President Donald Trump announced tariffs with a global minimum rate of 10% and rates on individual U.S. trading partners that included a 20% tariff on the European Union and an additional 34% tariff on Chinese goods. The fear is that the tariff increases will set off a global trade war of retaliation, and that the tariffs will push the United States into either a recession or stagflation. Take your pick about which to fear more. So what do you do NOW? That’s the topic of this Emergency Special Report.
