Volatility

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news: I’m selling ChargePoint out of my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow, August 9

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news: I’m selling ChargePoint out of my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow, August 9

As I referenced in my post “What to sell and when in this Bear Market Rally,” I’m applying the old Wall Street advice of buy on the rumor and sell on the news to electric vehicle charging stocks. Specifically to ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT)Like just about any stock associated with controlling global climate change, ChargePoint soared ahead on the surprise deal that revived “green spending” in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. There’s money in that bill for promoting electric vehicles and for solar and wind power. (And let’s not forget big bucks for hydrogen power, too.) That bill has now passed the Senate (amazingly) and looks almost certain to pass the House of Representatives, where Speak Nancy Pelosi can, I think, be counted on to hold her slim majority together. Which means all that potential spending good news for stocks in this sector is now out there.

Trick or trend: Anticipation of bigger interest rate increase from the Fed leads to a stronger dollar–add to dollar ETF UUP

Trick or trend: Anticipation of bigger interest rate increase from the Fed leads to a stronger dollar–add to dollar ETF UUP

In the last week, as odds have climbed of a 75-basis-point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve at its September 22 meeting, the U.S. dollar has reversed its slide during the last two weeks of July.
Stands to reason. Higher U.S. interest rates make dollar-denominated assets, such as Treasuries, more attractive. More dollar buying, stronger dollar.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick First Majestic Silver

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick First Majestic Silver

My one-hundred-and-sixty-first YouTube video “Quick Pick First Majestic Silver” went up today. This hasn’t been a great year for precious metals hedges. However, allow me to make the case for First Majestic Silver (AG), given the coming recession and my expectations for the Fed’s schedule of rate increases. A hedge for 2023? At the current price, it’s an attractive bit of insurance against a big surge in risk.

Time to take some chip money off the table–in the short run

Time to take some chip money off the table–in the short run

We’ve had a great one-week rally/bounce/whatever in chip stocks. Nvidia, for example, was up 17.42% for the week that ended on Thursday, July 21. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was up 8.71% in that same period. But I think there are good reasons for thinking that this move was just a very short-term gain in a long-term Bear Market that remains in place. So today, I’m taking some chip money off the table.

Time to take some chip money off the table–in the short run

Rally or rotation? I vote for rotation

In the last week Technology stocks, and chip stocks in particular, have staged a very impressive rally off of a really low base. Nvidia (NVDA), for example, is up 17.43% in the week that ended on July 21. That still leaves the stock down 39.43% for the year. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up 15.36% in the last week. And it’s still down 37.85% for 2022. Qualcomm (QCOM) is up 1.85% for the week. And down 16.26% for the year. Impressive. But I’d be more inclined to see this as a sustainable rally if stocks were rising across the board–with tech and chips leading the way, perhaps.
Instead what I’m seeing is a rotation from safe and less risky stocks

Please Watch My YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Hedging With Commodities Lives

Please Watch My YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Hedging With Commodities Lives

My one-hundred-and-fifty-ninth YouTube video “Trend of the Week Hedging with Commodities Lives” went up today. The strong dollar has knocked commodity plays around. But the reasons for buying these hedges still hold. Inflation. Supply shortages (especially in agricultural commodities.) I think there’s still a strong case that commodities are a good way to hedge this market.

Trick or trend: Anticipation of bigger interest rate increase from the Fed leads to a stronger dollar–add to dollar ETF UUP

Adding Invesco Dollar Bullish Fund ETF to three portfolios

In my July 7 YouTube video: “Quick Pick UUP” I added the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) to my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio. (To replace the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) in that portfolio. More on that in another post today.) Today I’m also going to add this dollar ETF to my Volatility Portfolio and to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. I’m setting a target price of $33.20 in the Jubak Picks Portfolio. You should take the fact that I’m adding a dollar position to three portfolios as an indication of how strongly I feel about a continued strong dollar.

Bad day for consumer stocks; good day for commodity shares

Bad day for consumer stocks; good day for commodity shares

The Conference Board’s latest reading on consumer confidence showed consumer expectations in June fell to their lowest level since 2013. The consumer confidence index for June fell to 98.7 from 103.2 in May, below expectations for a reading of 100. The report’s expectations index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income growth, the job market, and overall business conditions, fell to 66.4, its lowest reading since March 2013.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Cheniere Energy

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Cheniere Energy

My Quick Pick this week is Cheniere Energy (LNG), a liquified natural gas producer that I currently own in my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com and plan to add to my Jubak Picks portfolio as well. The stock has fallen as U.S. natural gas prices have taken a hit after a fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas facility that has caused a backup in U.S. LNG exports. I think it’s a great time to get in on this long-term story at Cheniere, which just announced that it had given the go-ahead to the construction of a new LNG chain at its Corpus Christi facility. That chain won’t be in operation until 2025 but I see the demand for U.S. LNG continuing to rise through then.

The speculative money is alive and “well” during Bear Market rally days

The speculative money is alive and “well” during Bear Market rally days

Friday, June 17, was a modestly up day for most of the indexes. The Standard & Poor’s 500, for example, gained 0.22% and the NASDAQ was up a stronger 1.43%. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.13% on the day.) But you’d never know that the indexes were up only modestly if you checked the gains on the most speculative stocks in the market. Meme favorites GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment (AMC) were up 7.48% and 6.28%, respectively. But the speculative gains didn’t stop there.