Blow-out first quarter earnings results from the big banks didn’t produce huge gains this week–and that’s actually reassuring to me because it says a significant number of investors are still paying attention to fundamentals
U.S. banks that pass their next stress tests will be allowed to raise their dividends after June 30, the Federal Reserve said today, March 25. The Fed will also lift any remaining restrictions on stock buybacks.
In commodities world there are bounces. There are rallies. And then there are super cycles of higher prices that can go on for years on an imbalance between supply and demand. We’re had our bounce in copper. And our rally. Now are we seeing the emergence of a copper super cycle? I think the answer is yes.
Hedges that can pay off on the downside and the upside are the most useful and most valuable. They also tend to be relatively rare. There aren’t a lot of these bets floating around in most markets just waiting for you to snap them up. However, I have found two hedges of just this sort in today’s market that I’m going to recommend to you today. (In this post I’m going to give you some of the nitty gritty numbers that support my recommendation for these two hedges. If you want to see some charts for copper and gold, banks and bonds check out the video I posted today.) I’m going to add these new recommendations to my standing Special Reports post tomorrow.
Yesterday tech tumbled but utilities, commodities like copper and even gold, and many “vaccine recovery” plays gained. Today almost everything is down.
Which to me is a sign that this now 6-day downturn is getting closer to an end. Right now, as of 1:30 a.m. in New York the NASDAQ is off another 2.32%. The brings the drop from the mid-february high to 6%. A little more than half way to a 10% correction. I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet. But I am looking for growth stories–which is not the same as “momentum growth stocks”–where the selling has created an opportunity.
A year ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note stood at 1.59%. From that point yields fell, leading to big gains for Treasuries and other bonds. Yields were down to 0.73% as of the week of April 15, 2020. And then hit their low for 2020 during the week of August 2 at 0.55%. Since then the story for long Treasuries has been just the reverse. By October 4, the yields on 10-year Treasuries were back ump to 0.78%. 0.83% by November 1. 0.93% on December 6. And then 1.16% today February 9. The forecast right now is that yields for long Treasuries aren’t done climbing either.
It’s unusual, to say the least, to have a dividend portfolio match the returns on the Standard & Poor’s 500–especially in a year when the S&P 500 was setting an all time high–but that’s what happened in 2020. My Dividend Portfolio showed a price gain of 12.28% for 2020. Add in the 3.43% dividend yield and the total return for the portfolio for the year was 15.71.% For the year the S&P 500 returned 16% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 7%.
Nothing like a little $125 million investment from an outside party to validate a joint venture. Fluence, a global battery storage joint venture of Siemens (SIEGY) and AES (AES), has reached an agreement with the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar for a $125 million investment. The funding will give the Qatar Investment Authority a 12% stake in Fluence and values the battery company at more than $1 billion.
Next step approval for emergency use authorization from the Food & Drug Administration. Today, Thursday, December 17, a FDA advisory committee voted 20 to 0, with one abstention, that the benefits of the Moderna (MRNA) coronavirus vaccine outweigh any risk.
Dividend Stock Portfolio member CVS Health (CVS) has set December 21 for the start of its program to vaccinate residents of long-term care facilities with the Pfizer (PFE) vaccine expected to be approved today for emergency use.
Dow (DOW) certainly fits the dividend template that I’ve explained in my Special Report: “10 Dividend Stocks that are beating the risky rockets. The stock yields 5.26% after a 0.20% gain today December 9. That compares to a yield of just 2.8% in July 2017 and 3.1% in December 2016. The stock also shows a 1.06% price to sales ratio on today. I think we’re looking at a cheap stock. Tomorrow I’l be adding it to my Dividend Portfolio.
I’m adding Citigroup, the most recent pick in my Dividend Stocks Special Report, to my Dividend Portfolio tomorrow