December 2, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 in November, the Labor Department said today. (And the October jobs total was revised upward to a gain of 284,000.) The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Average hourly wages rose 0.6% in November from October. That was the biggest increase since January. Wages are now up 5.1% year-over-year. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for the economy to add 200,000 jobs in November and an unemployment rate of 3.7%. All of this shows a labor market that remains in top gear when the Federal Reserve has been looking for weakness in the jobs data as a sign that higher interest rates are slowing the economy enough to reach the Fed’s inflation rate goal.
November 1, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The JOLTS survey from the Department of Labor showed a big jump in job openings in September. Which raised market worries that the Fed will raise interest rates tomorrow, November 2, by a hefty 75 basis points and signal that it is farther away from a pivot toward lowering interest rates than this recent rally has hoped. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that the number of available positions climbed to 10.7 million in September from a revised 10.3 million in August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a drop to 9.8 million openings.
June 2, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 390,000 jobs in May, the Labor Department reported this morning. Economists had expected the economy to add 318.000 jobs for the month. In April the economy added a revised 436,000 jobs. The unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.6%. Economists had expected a drop to 3.5%.
March 4, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 678,000 new jobs in February. That was the most new jobs since July. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the economy to add 423,000 jobs in the month. The official unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. Average hours earnings, however, lagged
February 4, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 467,000 jobs in January. The official unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4% from 3.9% in December, as more people moved off the sidelines to enter the labor market. Over the past 12 months, the United States has added nearly 7 million jobs.
November 30, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Right now the stock and bond markets can’t decide if the Omicron Variant will crush the global economy badly enough to lead the Federal Reserve to delay its timetable for raising interest rates or if the U.S. economy is so strong and inflation so persistent that Jerome Powell and company will be pushed to accelerate the Fed’s tightening. Which makes Friday’s jobs report for November even more important than usual since it might provide the tipping data to send the Fed’s decision one way or the other. Right now economists at Argus forecast that the economy added 550,000 new jobs in November. That would be an increase from the 531,000 jobs created in October and from the 32,000 created in August.
November 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
New claims for unemployment in regular state programs well for the week ended October 30 to a seasonally adjusted 269,000.
August 8, 2021 | Daily JAM |
On Friday, after the strong July jobs report, stocks said that the “re-opening” economy is going strong. That the Federal Reserve would see the July jobs report as a reason to raise interest rates. That inflation is likely to strengthen. On those conclusions the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (7 basis points) to 1.30%. Bank stocks, which move up when interest rates do, climbed. “Re-opening” stocks such as Macy’s (M) gained with Macy’s shares up 6.24% on the day. Defensive stocks such as Chipotle (CMG), and PetMed Express (PETS) fell 0.68% and 0.82%, respectively. And tech stocks, the recent favorite sector when the economy looks shaky, fell with the NASDAQ 100 down 0.48%. What we’ll see next week if whether these convictions hold–and whether or not investors start to question Friday’s certainty.
June 30, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Private payrolls rose more than expected in June, ADP reported this morning, with a gain of 692,000 jobs. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for a gain of 600,000 jobs. The figure was a drop from the 886,000 jobs aded by private employers in May. The biggest gains came, again, in the service sector.
June 3, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
Employment numbers today suggest that we could get a Goldilocks May job report tomorrow. The ADP Research employment survey said U.S. private employers added 742,000 jobs in May. That’s the most in seven months. But it is slightly below the 850,000 projected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
June 1, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
The last time the government reported monthly jobs numbers, investors and traders faced a big surprise. In April the U.S. economy added only 266,000 jobs. That was well below expectations for the addition of 1 million jobs in the month. Waiting for the May jobs report before the open on Friday Wall Street is hoping for a return to something like the run of months before April of 900,000+ plus. I suspect that Wall Street economists would be happy with any number strong enough to suggest that the April plunge was a fluke. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are projecting that the economy added 650,000 jobs in May. But after last month’s failure to predict the drop fresh in investors’ minds, no one is rushing to stake out a position either long or short ahead of the data. Which is one reason why the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell by all of 0.05% today
May 9, 2021 | Daily JAM |
This week Wall Street analysts and economists, professional money managers, and individual investors and traders will “re-calculate” their expectations about the economy for the remainder of 2021. Friday’s surprisingly small addition of 266,000 jobs to the U.S. economy–instead of the 1 million projected by economists–will lead to a revisions in assumptions about inflation, interest rates, and economic growth for the rest of 2021.
