Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

On Friday, after the strong July jobs report, stocks said that the “re-opening” economy is going strong. That the Federal Reserve would see the July jobs report as a reason to raise interest rates. That inflation is likely to strengthen. On those conclusions the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (7 basis points) to 1.30%. Bank stocks, which move up when interest rates do, climbed. “Re-opening” stocks such as Macy’s (M) gained with Macy’s shares up 6.24% on the day. Defensive stocks such as Chipotle (CMG), and PetMed Express (PETS) fell 0.68% and 0.82%, respectively. And tech stocks, the recent favorite sector when the economy looks shaky, fell with the NASDAQ 100 down 0.48%. What we’ll see next week if whether these convictions hold–and whether or not investors start to question Friday’s certainty.

Stocks on pause as market waits for Friday’s May jobs numbers

Stocks on pause as market waits for Friday’s May jobs numbers

The last time the government reported monthly jobs numbers, investors and traders faced a big surprise. In April the U.S. economy added only 266,000 jobs. That was well below expectations for the addition of 1 million jobs in the month. Waiting for the May jobs report before the open on Friday Wall Street is hoping for a return to something like the run of months before April of 900,000+ plus. I suspect that Wall Street economists would be happy with any number strong enough to suggest that the April plunge was a fluke. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are projecting that the economy added 650,000 jobs in May. But after last month’s failure to predict the drop fresh in investors’ minds, no one is rushing to stake out a position either long or short ahead of the data. Which is one reason why the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell by all of 0.05% today

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

This week Wall Street analysts and economists, professional money managers, and individual investors and traders will “re-calculate” their expectations about the economy for the remainder of 2021. Friday’s surprisingly small addition of 266,000 jobs to the U.S. economy–instead of the 1 million projected by economists–will lead to a revisions in assumptions about inflation, interest rates, and economic growth for the rest of 2021.

Will we get a “Goldilocks” job report for May tomorrow morning?

Today’s ADP jobs survey keeps markets on edge over Friday’s government jobs report for April

U.S. private employers in April added the most jobs in seven months, according to data from the ADP Research Institute released today. Company payrolls rose by 743,000 in the month. That’s a big gain from the upwardly revised 565,000 gain in March. And it’s the biggest money gain in jobs in seven months. That increases worries that Friday’s April jobs report from the Commerce Department will show a gain for the month of nearly 1 million new jobs. Good news for workers, of course, but that would increase fears in the financial markets that we’re seeing the kind of sustained, multi-month gains in jobs that the Federal Reserve has said it needs to see before it begins to raise interest rates.

Stocks on pause as market waits for Friday’s May jobs numbers

Jobs preview from ADP predicts bad news in Friday’s official jobs report for February

Private employers added 117,000 jobs in February, according to today’s National Employment Report from ADP. The ADP report leads into Friday’s Labor Department report on the job market. The Labor Department report will include jobs gains or losses in the public sector that has been hit hard by the pandemic. Economists had projected that the ADP survey would show private payrolls adding 165,000 jobs in February.

U.S. economy adds just 49,000 jobs in January, below economist projections for 100,000 gain–and the economy is showing clear signs of stalling

U.S. economy adds just 49,000 jobs in January, below economist projections for 100,000 gain–and the economy is showing clear signs of stalling

The U.S. economy gave new signs that the recovery has stalled. Today, February 5, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added just 49,000 jobs in January. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the economy to add 100,000 jobs in the month. The government statisticians also revised downward the jobs performance of the economy November and December. In December the revised figures say, the economy lost 227,000 jobs rather than the initially reported 140,000. In November the economy created 72,000 fewer jobs than first reported.

Job disappoint for November, stocks don’t care

Job disappoint for November, stocks don’t care

Th Standard & Poor’s 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ Composite all hit all time closing highs today. It’s enough to make you doubt that the U.S. economy added only 245,000 jobs in November. This was a huge miss on projections from economists the the economy would add 450,000 jobs. That projection would have itself been bad news since it would have confirmed trends that show the economic recovery losing momentum under the impact of the current surge in coronavirus infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. November was the slowest month for job growth since the pandemic shut down the economy in the spring.