The news from the ADP private sector employment survey this morning wasn’t good. Private-sector payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September and the August numbers were revised lower to show a 3,000 decline. The number of jobs lost in September exceeded all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey of economists.
The U.S. labor market was much weaker during much of 2024 and early 2025 than data initially showed, revised figures forty last year show. In the largest preliminary revision to jobs data on record, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said employers had created 911,000 fewer positions from April 2024 to March 2025 than previously reported. That’s less than half as many as the agency had initially indicated. The data will be revised again and finalized early next year. The typical pattern in these revisions would reverse part of today’s drop in the final revision.
Today’s dismal jobs report–and the shocking downward revision for June–may have marked an inflection point for this market: the point where soft job numbers changed from being a good thing because they heralded an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve to worries that the job market was so slow that it might be signaling a recession ahead. The economy added 22,000 jobs in August, far fewer than expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday morning. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since late 2021.
The downward revisions for June were brutal. Job data from June was revised downward to show the loss of 13,000 jobs, the first time the economy has lost jobs since December 2020, in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic.
Expect another critical jobs report on Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The report comes a little less than two weeks before the Federal Reserve meets on interest rates on September 17. Economists project that the economy added 75,000 jobs in August and that the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%. in the month from 4.2% in July. The four straight months of sub-100,000 payrolls growth would mark the weakest stretch since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
In contrast to last week, the coming week is light on economic news–but heavy on earnings. The question for the week: Will what are expected to be strong earnings outweigh anxiety over the economy and tariffs? Remember that last weeks’s very solid earnings weren’t enough to pull stocks into the green in the face of negative news on jobs, inflation and tariffs.Here’s the week’s economic calendar
The economy added 73,000 jobs in July, less than expected. But more shockingly, hiring in May and June was revised lower by a quarter of a million jobs, according to Labor Department data released Friday.
The unemployment rate in July also edged up slightly to 4.2%. Job creation for May and June was revised lower by a combined 258,000 jobs-—bringing June job creation down to 14,000, and May to 19,000.
In May the U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs. That beat economists’ projections for an addition of 125,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
In December U.S. economy in December added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. For 2024 as a whole, the economy added 2.2 million jobs—-below the 3 million increase in 2023 but above the 2 million created in 2019. The data almost certainly assured that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates at its January 29 meeting. As of 11 a.m. New York time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had climbed another 5 basis points to 4.74%.
The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday morning, December 6. In addition, revisions added 56,000 jobs to the totals for October and September. Which adds up to a strong recovery from the shocking low 12,000 new jobs initially reported for October. Initial analysis that the almost non-existant growth for October was due to hurricanes and strikes now looks correct. At the same time, the unemployment rate, which is calculated in a survey separate from that which produces the jobs total, ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The jobs total and the unemployment rate were broadly expected by economists. The complete picture is of an economy showing a continued modest expansion. In my opinion, that’s enough to lead to a 25 basis point cut at its December 18 meeting in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate from the current range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The CME FedWatch took today put the odds od a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting at 85.1%. That’s up from 66% odds a week ago
At 8:30 a.m. on Friday, December 6, investors will see the U.S. jobs report for November. Economists expect that the economy added 200,000 jobs in the month and that for the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.2%.
The U.S. economy added 12,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate, which uses a different survey method, held steady at 4.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the August and September reports to take a total of 112,000 jobs off earlier estimates. The average job growth over the past three months is now 104,000, down from 189,000 over the six months before that. The revised data and the October estimate are both more in line, in my opinion, with what is likely to have been happening in the economy as the result of high interest rates from the Federal Reserve. I thought hugh interest rates should have been slowing the economy more than the initial data suggested. And now it it looks like those high rates were working much more in line with past history of the economy. Of course, the big question today is should we believe the October report
The U.S. economy added 199,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported today, Friday, November 8. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9% in October That surprised economists who had expected the unemployment rate to hold steady. The bond market reacted in the morning hours after the report was released at 8:30 a.m. New York time by selling Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year Treasury gained 8 basis points to 4.233% as of 10 a.m. in New York as bond prices fell. The yield on the two-year Treasury jumped 78 basis points to 4.669%.
COLDWMTNVDACMIPAASTBFIGOVFXY
UUPBABA
