On Wednesday, June 16, China will release its official data on economic indicators such as industrial output and retail sales. The numbers are expected to show a slowing from April’s torrid growth but still a very healthy pace of improvement. Which would be a good thing since an over-heating Chinese economy would be one source of potential global inflation, and especially of commodity price inflation.
China reports 6.5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter; economy looks primed to be driver of global economy in 2021
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting that China would report 6.2% GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2020. Instead the government announced that China’s economy grew by 6.5% in the quarter. That pushed GDP growth for 2020 to 2.3% for the full 2020 year instead of the 2.1% forecast by economists.
China’s exports jumped in November by the most since early 2018. That growth pushed the country’s trade surplus to a monthly record. Exports rose 21.1% war over year in dollar terms in November, the largest increase since February 2018. Imports grew by only 4.5%. That resulted in a trade surplus of $75.4 billion for the month. That was the largest on record in data going back to at least 1990. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast that exports would increase by 12% while imports would grow by 7%.
China’s official Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing rose to 52.1 in November. The was up from 51.4 in October. And beat the 51.5 median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The index for the non-manufacturing sector climbed to 56.4 in November from 56.2 in October. That exceeded the median forecast of 56. The picture that emerges is of a Chinese economy that has stabilized in November and that has momentum generated by end of the year consumer spending and government measures to stimulate domestic consumer.