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Posts Tagged ‘China economy’

Negative economic numbers from both China and United States this morning

I'd give the edge to China in the "Whose news is worse?" sweepstakes this morning. For April China's retail sales rose 7.2% year over year--good news except that economists were projecting an 8.6% increase and that March showed 8.7% year over year growth. The April year over year retail sales growth was the lowest in […]

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Is China the Bizarro Goldilocks market with more downside ahead?

We're all used to the U.S. Goldilocks market. Growth is just enough but not so hot that it spurs inflation or convinces the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. And so stocks keep climbing. China has its own version of the Goldilocks market--but it's a significantly different version of the fairytale. In this story growth […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

... to be drowning in economic data. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, May 1, isn't even the high point of the data week. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged so it's Chair Jerome Powell's press conference after the meeting that will draw most of the attention. […]

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Politburo throws some cold water on Chinese stocks

On Friday China's ruling body, the Politburo, suggested that it thought less stimulus might be needed since the economy had recovered its footing. Instead policy should focus on deleveraging China's banks and corporate balance sheets, and on avoiding speculation in the housing market. This follows on news from the People's Bank that the supply of […]

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Official figures show improvement in China’s economy in March

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The Great (short-term) China Boom debate

Everybody seems to agree that things are looking up for the Chinese economy. The real disagreement is about how long this improvement might last and whether there's any chance that the upturn might go from improvement to boom. Here's some of the data that points to an improvement. The Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing […]

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News reports on U.S.-China trade talks progress dominate markets

The Financial Times is reporting today that a U.S-China trade agreement is roughly 90% done. The remaining 10% includes such big problems as enforcement mechanisms for the agreement and an end to China's policy of forcing technology transfers to Chinese companies as a price for overseas companies doing business in China. Adding to China optimism, the […]

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After sliding to April, has Trump-Xi trade meeting slipped to June?

Over the weekend the South China Morning News reported that the proposed meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to sign an agreement ending the U.S.-China trade war may now be pushed back to June. That meeting had originally been scheduled for the end of March and then pushed back to April. The […]

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Today’s economic numbers from U.S. (good) and China (bad)

The first (advanced) estimate of U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter showed the U.S. economy growing at a 2.6% annual rate. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast 2.3% growth. For all of 2018 the economy grew at a real rate (that is after inflation) of 2.9% in 2018 versus the 2.2% real growth in 2017. […]

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China trade talks outcome uncertain–but market reaction even more difficult to read

Today, a day when the U.S. financial markets seem to be in a mood to worry about China, is a good time to look at the likeliest outcomes of the U.S.-China trade talks and the likely market reaction to those outcomes. The clock is ticking on the Trump administration's deadline of March 1 for settling […]

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