FXI
April 19, 2023 | BABA, Daily JAM, FXI, JD, Videos |
Today’s topic is China’s Economy is Back. On April 18, China reported 4.5% year-over-year GDP growth for the first quarter. While it wasn’t the 5% growth rate that the Chinese government has set as a target, it was better than the 4% forecast by economists. This growth rate comes on the heels of a 4th quarter with only 2.9% year-over-year growth. Other numbers showed strength too. For example, retail sales rose 10.6% year-over-year beating forecasts of 7.4%. But the economy isn’t cooking on all burners: Industrial production was up only 3.9%, just missing the forecasts of 4%. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) is a good way to buy into China’s economy. There was a big rally from November to December as investors anticipated China’s economy speeding out of its Covid slump. But that rally was followed by a drop as the Chinese economy struggled with a resurgence in Covid cases. Now we’re seeing that drop start turn around. Individual stocks like Alibaba (BABA) and JD.com (JD) show charts with a similar pattern and can be expected to start to climb as the economy continues to pick up.
March 1, 2023 | Daily JAM, FXI, Perfect Five-ETFs, Videos |
Today’s topic is Will China Send the Global Economy Surging? We’ll really know the answer to this starting on Sunday, when the National People’s Congress of China meets. The leaders of China will make some important decisions for the Congress to rubber-stamp. China is looking for a 5% or higher GDP growth this year after last year’s 3%, but in order to get there, they’ll have to stimulate the economy. Local governments are drowning in debt that they can’t pay, and the government’s usual stimulus plan of requiring local governments to borrow and then spend it on “infrastructure “, isn’t likely to work. There’s also added pressure to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy and the rising tide (albeit a very low tide) of disgruntlement of the government and Xi Jinping’s leadership throughout the Covid lockdowns and the subsequent deadly spread of Covid-19. All this while the population is aging dramatically (with little to no retirement infrastructure), following the one-child policy, which reduced the younger population drastically. To take advantage of the expected and necessary economic stimulus, I recommend the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: FX) which captures a lot of the state-owned and larger corporate companies that would likely benefit from a stimulus from China. You’ll find it in my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio.
March 1, 2023 | Daily JAM, EUM, FXI, Perfect Five-ETFs |
China’s manufacturing activity recorded its highest monthly improvement in more than a decade in February, while services also showed stronger-than-expected performance. Home sales rose for the first time in 20 months. Which has helped push Chinese stocks higher–along with the belief that the annual People’s Congress meeting that begins on Sunday will produce new stimulus measures from the central government.
December 12, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, FXI |
Just days after China’s government unwound its 0-Covid policy and eased lockdowns much earlier than expected, the country is seeing a surge of infection that already threatens to overwhelm hospitals. “The speed of changes on the ground has surprised many, including us,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief China economist Hui Shan wrote in a note Sunday. “Not even a month ago, official outlets were still emphasizing that ‘20 measures’ were about optimizing the implementation of dynamic zero-Covid policy, rather than abandoning it. A few short weeks later, many controls are removed, and the virus seems to be spreading quickly among the population.” It’s unclear how quickly new cases are climbing
July 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, EUM, FXI, Perfect Five-ETFs |
I’m making a switch today (well, actually tomorrow) in the Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio Out goes the iShares Large Cap China ETF (FXI). In comes the ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Markets (EUM). My weighting remains the same at 15% of the five-ETF portfolio.
May 17, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, FXI, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
Today, Tuesday May 17, China’s top economic official, Vice Premier Liu He, said that the government will support the development of digital economy companies and their public stock listings. The comments delivered after a symposium with the CEOs of some of the country’s largest private technology companies came just a day after the National Bureau of Statistics reported that industrial output fell 2.9% in April from April 2021, and that retail sales contracted 11.1%. Financial markets in China and the United States interpreted the remarks as a public show of support for China’s Internet companies
March 28, 2022 | Daily JAM, FXI, Morning Briefing |
The city of 25 million and China’s financial hub began a phased lockdown today. A wave of Omicron infections hit a record of 3,450 daily asymptomatic cases on Sunday. That’s nearly 70% of China’s total.
March 20, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, FXI, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
I expect a continuation of the “disagreement” between domestic Chinese and foreign investors about the risk and direction of China’s stock marketThe two groups see very different worlds when they look at Chinese stocks. China’s domestic investors see a market ready for a big rally from a severe bear market on support from the People’s Bank of China, stock market friendly changes in policy from China’s financial regulators, and promises of fiscal stimulus from the Beijing government. Foreign investors see a the dangers of a confrontation with the United States and the potential for economic sanctions on China
March 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, FXI, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
Yesterday, March 15, I was thinking that I wished I didn’t own any China stocks at all. Today, March 16, I wished I owned more. Lot’s more.
February 8, 2022 | BABA, Daily JAM, FXI, JD, Morning Briefing, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
With the end of the Lunar New Year holiday and the reopening of China’s stock markets, China’s state-backed investment funds have started buying shares of the Chinese stocks traded on U.S. markets. The move follows actions by the People’s Bank of China to inject cash into the economy and financial markets.
January 21, 2022 | Daily JAM, FXI, Perfect Five-ETFs, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-first YouTube video “QuickPick: FXI China ETF” went up today.
January 2, 2022 | Daily JAM, FXI, Mid Term, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
In other years this would clearly be the time to jump into China stocks. What we have right now is a classic, tried-and-true set up for big gains from buying China stocks. With a “but” or two that suggests a cautious strategy. But I will be buying shares of Tencent Holdings and the FXI ETF on Monday, January 3.
