Perfect Five-ETFs
December 28, 2025 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Perfect Five-ETFs, Short Term, WPM |
I expect the huge 2025 rally in gold and silver to finish the year strong. But with the possibility of volatility as institutional investors try to game the next move in precious metals. In case you’re not up to date on this rally, gold was up 76% for 2025 as of December 26. Silver was up 160%. Gains like those inevitably fill investors heads with thoughts of corrections and reversions to the mean. But I think selling now is premature.
October 29, 2025 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs |
On October 10, I sold the Invesco CurrecyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio. The ETF was down 2.4% since I added it to this portfolio on March 31, 2025. All of that loss had common the last week. They has dropped 3.9% against the dollar since October 3 as of the close on October 9. The yen now trades at its lowest levels since mid-February. What was up? The surprise election of Sanae Takaichi, a pro-stimulus conservative, to lead Japan’s long-governing Liberal Democratic Party. Takaichi is a follower of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and has long embraced the view that Japan should return to Abenomics, an economic policy which promoted more government stimulus and easy-money.The market reaction is speculation that she would implement a form of “neo-Abenomics,” including ultra low interest rates. So what’s my replacement to fill this non-U.S. asset slot in the portfolio?
Matthews Korea Active ETF (MKOR). I’ll be adding it to the Perfect 5 ETF tomorrow, October 30.
October 9, 2025 | Daily JAM, FXY, Perfect Five-ETFs |
Today, Friday, October 10, I’m selling the Invesco CurrecyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio. The ETF is down 2.4% since I added it to this portfolio on March 31, 2025. All of that loss has common the last week. They has dropped 3.9% against the dollar since October 3 as of the close on October 9. The yen now trades at its lowest levels since mid-February. What’s up?
October 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
The government shutdown will push gold past $4,000 an ounce. That would be a double in less than two years. Gold closed at $3908 an ounce on Friday. Gold was hot before the shutdown because it benefits from lower interest rates that reduce the opportunity cost of holding it, and from higher inflation, which reinforces its role as a store of value. It also rises when the dollar falls, both because it’s priced in dollars and because it competes with cash. All three factors were working in gold’s favor. And then came the shutdown, which further weakened faith in the U.S. dollar.
September 23, 2025 | Daily JAM, FXI, Perfect Five-ETFs |
The unemployment rate for U.S. recent college graduates (ages 23–27) is 4.59% in 2025, up from 3.25% in 2019. That’s higher than the unemployment rate for the U.S. population as whole, which stood at 4.3% in August. That’s an inversion of the historical trend. I’m sure it’s no comfort for any U.S. college graduate looking for work, but this “young worker” employment problem is a global phenomenon. And it’s much worse in other countries. In China, for example, the official youth unemployment rate spiked in August by more than a percentage point from July to 18.9%. And that’s even though the National Bureau of Statistics revamped the official figures in 2023 to exclude students. And private figures paint an even bleaker picture: a survey of 300 company executives by Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business found companies last month were the most pessimistic about future hiring since early 2020. The problem is big enough that it looks to be sinking the incipient recovery in domestic consumption and threatens to unleash a new wave of deflation.
March 30, 2025 | Daily JAM, FXY, Perfect Five-ETFs, Short Term, UUP |
On Monday, March 31, I will sell the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index BullishFund ETF (UUP) out of the Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio and replace it with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY). I will leave the portfolio weighting at 25%. The yen ETF is up 5.32% in the last three months as of the close on March 28. It charges a 0.40% expense ratio.
March 23, 2025 | Daily JAM, FXI, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
Just because we’ve seen this page from the play book before and just because I’m skeptical about the long-term effects of this policy doesn’t mean I don’t want to own the China rally now. On Monday March 24, I’m adding the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) to my Perfect Five ETF Portfolio and to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios. (In the Perfect Five ETF portfolio I’m replacing my India ETF with this China ETF.)
February 19, 2025 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, NEM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
Today Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end target for gold to $3,100 an ounce. Central banks are buying gold at a faster than expected pace and flows into gold ETFs are accelerating.
January 20, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Notes You Need, Perfect Five-ETFs, Videos |
Oil slid as U..S President Donald Trump promised to boost U.S. crude production. Brent crude retreated almost 1% to near $80 a barrel.
January 15, 2025 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs, UUP |
Last week I sold my commodities ETF, the VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO) out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio.
Today I’m replacing it with the Invesco DB U.S.Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP), UP 0.82% in 2025 as of January 14, 2025. The ETF gained 13.48% in 2024.
January 13, 2025 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Notes You Need, NVDA, Perfect Five-ETFs, Videos |
Apple (AAPL) sold 5% fewer iPhones globally and lost ground to Chinese rivals in the last quarter of 2024.
The iPhone slipped a percentage point to a 18% worldwide market share in 2024, according to Counterpoint Research data. rival Samsung Electronics also gave up share to Android smart phone makers from China, led by Xiaomi and Vivo. For the full year, Apple saw a 2% decline in sales, according to Counterpoint Research. In 2024 the global smart phone market grew by 4%.
January 9, 2025 | AAPL, ACAD, ADSK, AGN, ALB, ALV, AMZN, ARCO, ARGT, AUY, BABA, BG, BGC, BHP, BMY, CHK, CMI, CNI, COH, CSCO, CTRP, CX, DD, DE, DHR, DWDP, DXJR, EBAY, EEM, EFNL, ENB, EUM, EWZS, FANG, FANUY, FB, FCX, FEZ, FLR, FLS, FTV, GDXJ, GE, GGAL, GLD, GLW, GOOG, HAIN, HDB, HP, INCY, ING, IONS, ITUB, IVV, JCI, JO, JOY, KBWB, KMI, LFL, LNG, LUX, MGM, Mid Term, MIDD, MON, Morning Briefing, MPC, MXF, NJDCY, NKTR, Notes You Need, OGXI, OKS, PEP, Perfect Five-ETFs, PFXF, POT, PXD, PYPL, QCOM, RSPP, RYN, SDRL, SFTBY, SH, SLB, SPWR, SQM, STO, SYNA, TCEHY, TPR, TRGP, TS, V, VALE, VEA, Videos, VMC, VZ, WBK, WES, XOM, XYL, YPF, Z-SYMBOLS |
China’s consumer price index rose 0.1% in December from a year earlier, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Factory deflation extended into a 27th month, though the producer price index recorded a slower drop of 2.3%, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. For the full year, consumer prices only inched up 0.2% from 2023, well short of the 1.1% gain economists had predicted at the beginning of 2024.
