GDX
July 5, 2026 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks |
You can see it–maybe–if you carefully squint at the year-to-date chart for gold. From $5311 an ounce on March 2, the price of gold has moved consistently lower to 4009 on June 24. And then, it looks to me, gold has formed a low ar that level. The precious metal closed at $4,126 an ounce on July 2. On the fundamentals this “should” be a bottom too. Inflation, gold’s best friend rumbles along at 3% to 4%, depending on the index you follow. The U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled that it sees inflation moderating with the end of the Iran war. (Oh, it’s over? I must have missed the press release.) And that, therefore, there’s no need to raise interest rates at the July or September meetings. More central banks than ever expect to increase their gold reserves, a sign one of the key forces behind bullion’s record-breaking rally remains intact despite this year’s pullback. In a survey of 74 central banks, 45% said they plan to buy in the coming year, the biggest-ever share in data collected by the World Gold Council and YouGov Plc since 2018. Just one said it planned to cut holdings, the WGC said in a report Tuesday. Even the big recent drop in oil prices may be more of a plus than a minus for gold. Since while lower oil prices are likely to damp inflation, lower oil prices also relieve the pressure on the currencies of oil importing countries, such as India, to sell gold to defend their currencies.
July 3, 2026 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
On June 17, in his press conference after the Federal Reserve’s meeting, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh said no more forward guidance on interest rate moves. He even, personally, made a point of not voting in the update of the Fed’s Dot Plot projections on interest rtes, inflation, and economic growth. Then on July 1, Warsh appeared on a panel with other central bank leaders at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal. He again declined to pre‑commit on the July rate decision. he also said inflation remains “too high.” But he noted that inflation risks have come down in recent weeks as inflation expectations and some energy‑related pressures eased. The financial markets certainly read these remarks as an indication–not forward guidance, of course–that the Fed would not raise interest rates at its July or September meetings. I think you’re entitled to ask What’s the difference between the old policy of forward guidance and the new policy of announcing forward conclusions based on trends picked out of the data, somehow? (I would note that neither Warsh or anybody else at the Federal Reserve KNOWS how quickly the inflationary pressures created by the Iran war will diminish.) I’ve got two answers to that question.
May 18, 2026 | B, Daily JAM, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, GLD |
Will the restrictions India slapped on gold and silver imports in an effort defend the rupee send precious metals tumbling again in the week ahead.
May 4, 2026 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Long Term |
Watch what they do and not what the say is always good advice for investors trying to figure out what’s going on in the financial markets.
Sure, the Federal Reserve has said that it has a target of no more than 2% inflation. And Jerome Powell & Co. has professed their disappointment that inflation remains so stubbornly elevated above that target,
Since the start of the year, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by $170 billion. That translates to a staggering $510 billion annualized run-rate. The Fed is currently expanding its balance sheet at almost 8% a year during a period when the U.S. economy is supposedly not in a recession.At the same time, U.S. money supply M2 grew by $1.65 trillion in 2025, which is roughly 6.3% over the year.
February 19, 2026 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks |
February The argument for owning gold for the long term comes down to simple supply and demand. Unlike the world’s supply of fiat currencies where supply will soar as the wold’s indebted countries–just about everyone–print more money to pay their bills, the global supply of gold is increasing by just 1% a year or less. Unlike demand for the U.S. dollar, world’s fiat money flagship currency–where every day more investors want to hedge their risks by diversifying out of the dollar, demand for gold from global central banks is climbing and Wall Street strategist have modestly but noticeably increased their recommended allocation to gold for individual portfolios.
December 28, 2025 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Perfect Five-ETFs, Short Term, WPM |
I expect the huge 2025 rally in gold and silver to finish the year strong. But with the possibility of volatility as institutional investors try to game the next move in precious metals. In case you’re not up to date on this rally, gold was up 76% for 2025 as of December 26. Silver was up 160%. Gains like those inevitably fill investors heads with thoughts of corrections and reversions to the mean. But I think selling now is premature.
November 12, 2025 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
If you have been looking for the moment to add to your exposure to gold, I think this 5% dip is a good opportunity.
September 3, 2025 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Foreign central bank holdings of the precious metal have topped holdings of U.S. Treasurys for the first time since 1996, according to Bloomberg data
February 19, 2025 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, NEM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
Today Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end target for gold to $3,100 an ounce. Central banks are buying gold at a faster than expected pace and flows into gold ETFs are accelerating.
August 26, 2024 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GLD, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, NEM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
Gold hit a new all-time high today of $2554 an ounce on the Comex for December delivery. Gold’s 20% or so gain in 2024 to date (as of August 26) is a result of strong central-bank buying plus Asian purchases plus anticipation that the Federal Reserve was about to cut interest rates. Now that Fed chair Jerome Powell has just about promised a cut at the Fed’s September 18 meeting it looks like gold will climb further in 2024 on the fundamentals. Bullish Wall Street targets say $2700 to $3,000 by the end of 2024. That’s a decent reason to hold gold. But the very scary geopolitical landscape over the next six months makes me anxious to add more gold even at the record nominal high for the metal.
December 1, 2023 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GLD, Jubak Picks, NEM |
Gold (for February 2024 delivery) was trading at $2087 an ounce on New York Comex today, December 1. That easily beats the old record high of $2051.50 an ounce back in August 2020. The shiny metal is up 12% from $1830 an ounce in early October. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), which holds gold, is up 2.53% in the last month as of November 30. History, and the price action on the Gold Shares ETF, tells us that at this point in a strong gold rally, it doesn’t pay to chase gold itself, but it does pay to buy shares of gold miners.
October 9, 2023 | Daily JAM, GDX, GLD, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Gold was up 1.9% in trading on COMEX today to $1876 an ounce on war in Israel and Gaza and fears that it would become a wider conflict in the region. I’ve been looking for an exit from two of my gold positions for a while now. And tomorrow is a good exit point, I think.
