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Stellar second quarter earnings with one asterisk

Stellar second quarter earnings with one asterisk

The blended earnings growth rate for the other 493 S&P 500 companies for the second quarter of 2026 was 31.8%, which is the highest earnings growth rate reported by this group of companies since fourth quarter of 2021 (32.4%). Why only 493 companies? Ah, the Magnificent 7 stocks. A special case as in other recent quarters. The “Magnificent 7” companies reported actual earnings growth of 118.5% for the second quarter, which is the highest earnings growth rate reported by these seven companies going back to at least the fourth quarter of 2020 (when Tesla joined the S&P 500). The top five contributors to earnings growth for the S&P 500 for the second quarter of 2026 were (in order) Alphabet, Amazon.com, Micron Technology, NVIDIA, and Chevron. Three of the top five contributors are “Magnificent 7” companies. But this is where that asterisk coomes in.

Stellar second quarter earnings with one asterisk

Now that’s circular: The profit boom at tech companies like Amazon and Alphabet comes from investments in AI companies

Tech giants like Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) have powered the stock market to record highs. But in recent months, a big driver of those two companies’ profits came from an unusual source: The increasing value of their investment stakes in artificial intelligence companies, according to a really important piece (in my opinion) by Joe Rennison in the New York Times on August 14. “Over 70% of Alphabet’s net quarterly income came from investments in other companies, and in particular, in Elon Musk’s SpaceX, according to a recent regulatory filing and analysis from Satori Insights, a financial markets research firm. SpaceX went public in June in the biggest initial public offering ever. Investment gains also accounted for roughly 65% of Amazon’s net income, largely stemming from its stake in Anthropic, a leading A.I. start-up that is also planning to go public. Those gains underscore a growing vulnerability in the broader stock market: The companies that keep pushing the market higher are increasingly dependent on each other’s success.” “It’s circular,” Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, told the Times. “What’s funding A.I. is now increasingly more A.I.”

Chip stocks move into bear market–what’s next?

Chip stocks move into bear market–what’s next?

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which stacks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has moved into Bear market territory with a drop of more than 20% from its June 22 high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is marginally short of the 29% drop that defines a Bear market. The pain was by no means equally distributed.

Now that’s a narrow market!

Now that’s a narrow market!

Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is poised to become the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth over the next two years, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs projects that beneficiaries of AI infrastructure investment will account for roughly half of S&P 500 earnings per share growth in both 2026 and 2027. That’s two years–for the math challenged.

Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

This week brings a huge earnings test for AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META and MSFT. I’m going to sell Microsoft out of my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio on Monday, April 27, ahead of the earnings report. That position is up 319% since I initiated it on June 14., 2018. I am keeping Microsoft in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. That position is up 40% since I initiated it on January 18, 2022.

Coming soon, DeepSeek V4: the next  big test for AI stocks, tech sector, and the entire market

Coming soon, DeepSeek V4: the next big test for AI stocks, tech sector, and the entire market

China’s AI disruptor DeepSeek is preparing to introduce a new model. Reuters had initially reported that DeepSeek would launch its next‑generation model “V4,” focused on coding, in mid‑February 2026. Rumors now peg the expected release window as “Q1–Q2 2026.” The mid‑February window has passed but context‑window changes and internal benchmark leaks signal that V4 is close. And it will be a BIG DEAL for AI competitors AND ai chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA). A big enough deal that the V4 release will move the entire tech sector and quite probably the stock market as a whole.

Would you buy a 100-year AI bond even from Google?

Would you buy a 100-year AI bond even from Google?

Alphabet/Google (G00G) borrowed another $20 billion in its biggest ever U.S. dollar bond sale on Monday. And that’s just the beginning. The company is also planning debut deals in Switzerland and the UK. Including the sale of 100-year bonds.
Drum role, please: That would be the the first time a tech company has tried a 100-year offering since the Dotcom boom of the late 1990s. (Remember how that ended?) The big borrowing spree comes just days after tech companies from Meta Platforms (META) to Amazon.com (AMZN) said they were ramping up capital spending to build out infrastructure for AI. Those capital spending plans sent AI sector stocks into a steep decline on fears that AI companies would not be able to generate the cash flow needed to fund these capital spending plans. But that was sooo last week.