June 22, 2026 | BEPC, CCJ, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
The Iran war isn’t over. We’re either moving into a new extended cease fire or a step back toward heightened conflict or a negotiated honest-to-goodness peace agreement. It’s too early to tell, in my estimation. But it’s not too early for countries and political leaders to be drawing their own conclusions about the lessons of this war. I think those conclusions are likely to result in a revolution in the global commodity economy. And it’s not too early to reorder your portfolio to reflect those lessons. In this Part 1 post, I’m going to outline the two major lessons that countries are drawing from the Iran war, sketch in the ways that those conclusions are going to change the market for two commodities (LNG and uranium)–and related markets–and finally give you a few preliminary stock buys and sells that reflect my understanding of the likely shape of this commodity revolution. In Part 2 next week I’m going to apply this same framework to solar and also look at the likely new commodity choke points as more countries apply the lesson of the Hormuz blockade to other commodities.
June 15, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today, stocks were up strongly on news that the U.S. and Iran had signed a “framework” to end the Iran war. The Standard & Poor’s 500 ended trading up 1.65%. The NASDAQ Composite gained 3.07%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the “fear index” dropped 8.37% to 16.20. The bigest item in the news was that oil would again begin flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. I think over the next days, however, what we don’t know now–and we know almost nothing since neither side has published the deal’s full text–will gradually become known. And the details will spawn a flood of criticism about what the deal hasn’t accomplished. As well as analysis about how difficult it will be–since indications are that Israel’s government hasn’t signed on to key terms–to turn this framework into actual peace. I expect that the result of deeper study of the framework will result in oil prices moving higher agin and stocks giving back some of today’s gains. If you’ve been waiting to take some profits, the next few days seem like a good opportunity.
June 11, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The dollar, seen as a safe haven asset, fell by the most in more than a month as President Donald Trump vowed of progress on a deal to end the war. The day before President Trump had vowed to expand the war by taking over Iran’s oil infrstrucure on Kharg Island. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.3% Thursday afternoon in New York. It was the currency’s worst one-day performance since May 6. The President’s remarks also led to a decline in oil prices and a surge in U.S. Treasuries. Brent crude fell 4.28% on the day. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 9 basis points to 4.46%
February 17, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
If the indirect talks between the United States and Iran succeed in reaching some kind of agreement that walks the United States back from a new, and quite possibly more extensive, attack on Iran, then financial markets will breathe a sigh of relief. Gold and oil prices will stabilize or retreat. If, however, the talks end in disagreement with new promises from President Donald Trump of an immediate attack on Iran, then “safe haven” assets will move up strongly. Frankly, I don’t know how to handicap the odds on this one. Bets one way or the other seem pure speculation. The news will create big winners and losers. I just don’t know enough to be able to project which way this will break.
January 7, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
I think the answer is no. Global oil companies aren’t interested in Venezuela’s oil unless it is heavily subsidized by U.S. taxpayers. Reuters put together a good profile of the market for Venezuelan oil: “Most of Venezuela’s oil reserves, located in the Orinoco belt, are classified as heavy and extra‑heavy. These highly viscous grades must be blended with diluent and upgraded into lighter oil to be extracted, transported and processed. All this raises the production costs. “The energy-intensive upgrading process also increases the carbon footprint of these heavy grades, which could push up costs further if more governments ts start taxing emissions or raising existing levies. Breakeven costs for key grades in the Orinoco belt already average more than $80 a barrel. That places Venezuelan oil at the higher end of the global cost scale for new production. By comparison, heavy oil produced in Canada has an average breakeven cost of around $55 a barrel. “Exxon’s breakeven target for its global oil production by 2030 is $30 a barrel
March 24, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff on exports to the United States.
This “secondary tariff” will take effect on April 2, the president announced in a Truth Social post.
April 14, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
After Israel and its allies (with the help of some Arab states that don’t want to see a wider Middle East war and who aren’t thrilled with the growing power of Iran and its proxies) succeeded in shooting down almost all of the drones (170), ballistic missiles (120), and cruise missiles (30) launched by Iran against the country, will the two sides both declare victory and claim that honor is satisfied or will one or the other escalate the war with another round of attacks? As of early Monday trading in Asia, the oil and gold markets have reacted with concern but not panic. Gold, up 13% already this year to a record above $2,400 an ounce, moved higher but the gains were relatively modest. Spot gold climbed 0.8% to $2,361.92 an ounce as of 6:20 a.m.in Singapore. The global oil market opened to the upside but by less than 1%. And prices have been steady to slightly weaker since then.
December 4, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
I’m hearing some chatter that says bond traders and analysts are stepping aside from the bond rally. Or are planning to do so. Their argument is that the move has been too far, too fast. Specifically, I’ve heard talk of selling if the yield on the 10-year Treasury hits 4.00%. On Friday, the yield was 4.20%. So I’d be watching to see if anything like a bond rally pause or reversal materializes during the days ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on December 13
November 27, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Oil declined for a third day with U.S.benchmark West Texas Intermediate falling another 0.73% to $74.99 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude fell 0.65% to $80.06 a barrel. OPEC meets on November 30 and there’s good reason to doubt that the cartel will agree to cut production even in the face of falling oil prices.
September 26, 2023 | AAPL, ADBE, ALB, AMAT, B, EUM, LAC, Morning Briefing, MSFT, NVDA, PILBF, RWM, SCCO, Short Term, Special Reports, UUP, Volatility |
So what do you do with your portfolio for the rest of 2023? And what’s your best strategy to be prepared for 2024? In Part 1 of this Special Report I laid out the 10 developments that I thought would drive the financial markets for the rest of 223 and into 2024. Today, in Part 2, I’m going to give you the first 2 of 10 moves to take–with as much detail and as many specifics as possible–that you should be making now to position your portfolio for the uncertainties of the last quarter of 2023.
January 24, 2023 | Jubak Picks, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
After the market close today, Microsoft (MSFT) announced earnings of $2.32 a share, just beating Wall Street forecasts of $2.30 a share. That was a 6.5% drop from the December 2021 quarter, however. Revenue missed expectations at $52.7 billion versus a forecasted $52.9 billion. But the big news was that revenues for Azure, the company’s key cloud computing software unit, rose just 31% year over year in the quarter. That badly trailed Wall Street forecasts that called for 36.8% year-over-year growth in the December quarter.
December 26, 2022 | Daily JAM |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-twenty-first YouTube video; Trend of the Week Oil is Back for 2023. This week’s Trend of the Week: Oil is Back for 2023. We’re looking at a great set-up for oil going forward into 2023. Oil performed well in 2022, so it’s going into 2023 with strong recommendations from Wall Street strategists to “Keep it up.” We also may be hitting “peak oil” in Saudi Arabia, (like we talked about—for those who are old enough to remember- back in the 80s.) So Saudi Arabia and Russia, two big players in the commodity, are both constrained on oil production capacity. Additionally, we’re seeing a shift in the United States to becoming a net oil exporter. Oil has sold off, as United States Oil Fund (USO) shows, with the price n December 26 at $69.32. But it now looks to be in recovery and this looks like a good entry point. There is some resistance with the 50-day moving average at $69.64, but I don’t think it’ll be a problem to get back up to the November peak of 76. So what do you buy? USO gives you an overall market exposure in oil, but if you’re looking at an oil producer for more leverage, look to someone with a lot of oil exposure in the oil shales in the US, like ConocoPhilips (COP).
