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Posts Tagged ‘oil’

Persistent drip, drip, drip of smaller negative stories out of China today

No big bad news story from China this morning, but the news trend continues to emphasize the downside. For example, this morning a U.S. official said the U.S. is unlikely to extend a waiver allowing American firms to supply China’s Huawei Technologies with technology products critical to Huawei's smartphones and other telecom gear. Or, for […]

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A rally in tech shares disguises return to risk off trading

Shares of Apple (AAPL) climbed 0.21% to lead the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) higher by 0.40% as of 2 p.m. trading in New York. That helped disguise what is otherwise a return to the risk off trading of Monday after Tuesday's rally--although with smaller declines than on Monday. The Standard & Poor's 500 […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

... nervousness. With the Federal Reserve locked in, seemingly, on an interest rate cut in July, and then strongly inclined to cut rates again in September, no one really wants to step out of this market. We're talking major stimulus for the economy and a major boost for stocks. But... Then there are the rising […]

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Disrupted Sector #2 in my Special Report 5 Sectors Facing Disruption: Oil

Each bit of news by itself argues for the disruption of the oil and natural gas sector. Together the two stories add up to a decade that will turn the sector topsy turvy. First, the story you've probably most familiar with since it produced such a big splash in the stock market on Friday, April […]

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U.S. dollar continues to climb, creating downdraft for emerging markets and oil, and supporting Treasuries

The U.S. Dollar Spot Index (DXY) is up again today, climbing 0.66% to 97.053. Since the index that tracks the dollar against six other major trading currencies bottomed for 2018 back on February 15, the dollar has gained 8.72%. The bulk of those gains are even more recent with the dollar up 7.76% against the […]

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U.S. stocks gently slide but VIX “fear index” continues retreat

If the market were inclined to sell off today, it could have found plenty of reasons. Under the heading of one-off scary stuff, I'd put: Continued tensions between the Saudis and just about everyone else over allegations--which look to be true--that the Saudi government ordered the murder (and dismemberment) of a Saudi journalist inside the Saudi […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect… Part 2 oil

...but exactly what should we expect about oil? Due to what seems increasingly likely to have been the brutal murder of a moderately critical Saudi journalist by order of the Saudi government in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, relations between the Saudis and many of their biggest oil customers, including the United States, are in […]

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My “best-estimate” scenario for the U.S. stock market for the next 60 days

Let's start with a perhaps less obvious question: Why 60 days? Because that will take us through the historically volatile months of September and October (when fear can beget fear) to the middle of November, which historically tends to mark a turn in the markets toward an end of the year rally. Because over these […]

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My baseline U.S. stock market scenario for the next 30 days

So much negative uncertainty from big possible events. Such strong short term earnings fundamentals. How will these all balance out? Before I get to my take on the answer to that question let's take a brief stop to look at what a baseline scenario is and why putting one together is important. A baseline scenario […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the site. And we'll throw in the first week free! If you change your mind during that first week, just cancel your subscription from your profile page, and you won't be billed anything.