February 26th, 2020, 4:29 PM
This morning it looked like U.S. stocks would bounce from the drop of Monday and Tuesday--about 6% on the Standard & Poor's 500. As of 10:51 a.m. New York time the index was up 1.64% to 3182.08. But that has turned out to be the high of the day. By 12:18 p.m. the index was […]
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February 6th, 2020, 6:56 PM
Two Chinese companies have invoked force majeure clauses in their contracts to refuse delivery of cargoes of liquified natural gas and copper. Chinese buyers have also asked Chilean miners to postpone shipments and China's biggest oil refiner Sinopec Group is likely to ask Saudi Arabia to reduce crude shipments next month, according to Bloomberg. Invoking […]
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September 26th, 2019, 2:58 PM
No big bad news story from China this morning, but the news trend continues to emphasize the downside. For example, this morning a U.S. official said the U.S. is unlikely to extend a waiver allowing American firms to supply China’s Huawei Technologies with technology products critical to Huawei's smartphones and other telecom gear. Or, for […]
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August 7th, 2019, 2:42 PM
Shares of Apple (AAPL) climbed 0.21% to lead the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) higher by 0.40% as of 2 p.m. trading in New York. That helped disguise what is otherwise a return to the risk off trading of Monday after Tuesday's rally--although with smaller declines than on Monday. The Standard & Poor's 500 […]
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April 13th, 2019, 10:36 PM
Each bit of news by itself argues for the disruption of the oil and natural gas sector. Together the two stories add up to a decade that will turn the sector topsy turvy. First, the story you've probably most familiar with since it produced such a big splash in the stock market on Friday, April […]
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November 12th, 2018, 4:40 PM
The U.S. Dollar Spot Index (DXY) is up again today, climbing 0.66% to 97.053. Since the index that tracks the dollar against six other major trading currencies bottomed for 2018 back on February 15, the dollar has gained 8.72%. The bulk of those gains are even more recent with the dollar up 7.76% against the […]
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October 15th, 2018, 4:38 PM
If the market were inclined to sell off today, it could have found plenty of reasons. Under the heading of one-off scary stuff, I'd put: Continued tensions between the Saudis and just about everyone else over allegations--which look to be true--that the Saudi government ordered the murder (and dismemberment) of a Saudi journalist inside the Saudi […]
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October 14th, 2018, 5:00 PM
...but exactly what should we expect about oil? Due to what seems increasingly likely to have been the brutal murder of a moderately critical Saudi journalist by order of the Saudi government in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, relations between the Saudis and many of their biggest oil customers, including the United States, are in […]
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September 11th, 2018, 5:01 PM
Let's start with a perhaps less obvious question: Why 60 days? Because that will take us through the historically volatile months of September and October (when fear can beget fear) to the middle of November, which historically tends to mark a turn in the markets toward an end of the year rally. Because over these […]
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