October 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
The government shutdown will push gold past $4,000 an ounce. That would be a double in less than two years. Gold closed at $3908 an ounce on Friday. Gold was hot before the shutdown because it benefits from lower interest rates that reduce the opportunity cost of holding it, and from higher inflation, which reinforces its role as a store of value. It also rises when the dollar falls, both because it’s priced in dollars and because it competes with cash. All three factors were working in gold’s favor. And then came the shutdown, which further weakened faith in the U.S. dollar.
September 3, 2025 | Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Foreign central bank holdings of the precious metal have topped holdings of U.S. Treasurys for the first time since 1996, according to Bloomberg data
August 26, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
President Donald Trump’s efforts to force the Federal Reserve to more aggressively lower short-term interest rates is having the opposite effect at the long-end of the Treasury market. Today, Tuesday August 26, the yield on the 30-year Treasury rose three basis points to 4.92%. The 30-year yield is now up 81 basis points or 0.81 percentage points, in the last year. The gap between five and 30-year yields is the widest since 2021.
Today the dollar also fell, dropping 3 basis points against both the euro and the Canadian dollar.
August 8, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today the U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued an opinion that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars are subject to the Trump tariffs including the 39% tariff on exports from Switzerland. A letter from the agency stunned traders who had assumed gold bullion would be exempted from the tariffs ordered by President Donald Trump. The agency issued the letter after a gold refiner in Switzerland asked for clarification. Futures in New York, which are backed by bars shipped from Switzerland and other key trading and refining hubs, surged overnight to a record. They later erased those gains after an official said Friday that the White House intends to issue an executive order to clarify what that person described as misinformation. Gold, it seems, will not be subject to these tariffs.
July 22, 2025 | B, Daily JAM, GLD, Morning Briefing, PAAS |
Gold futures rallied Monday for their best gains in more than a month and silver surged to its highest settlement in nearly 14 years, boosted by a solidly lower U.S. dollar index and a decline in U.S. Treasury yields to start the trading week. The rally in gold continued on Tuesday with gold on the COMEX closing at $3445.6 an ounce.
June 30, 2025 | Daily JAM |
American individual investors are selling gold to take profits after a historic run. Individual investors in Asia, on the other hand, continue their bullion-buying spree.
May 11, 2025 | Daily JAM |
With the news on Sunday from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that U.S. and China negotiators have reached a trade deal, I expect that we’ve seen a short-term peak in gold.
February 19, 2025 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, NEM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility |
Today Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end target for gold to $3,100 an ounce. Central banks are buying gold at a faster than expected pace and flows into gold ETFs are accelerating.
February 14, 2025 | AAPL, ACAD, AGN, ALV, AMZN, AUY, BABA, BG, BGC, BHP, BMY, CHK, CMI, CNI, COH, CSCO, CX, Daily JAM, DD, DE, DHR, DXJR, EBAY, ENB, EUM, FB, FCX, FLR, FLS, FTV, GLD, Jubak Picks, MPC, OGXI, OKS, PEP, PFXF, POT, PXD, QCOM, RSPP, RYN, SDRL, SFTBY, SH, SLB, SPWR, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is China Buys More Gold. Gold seems like a good asset to own right now but it’s also trading at record highs. So while gold is safe, especially if inflation goes up, how much higher do you expect gold to go? One thing to look at it is who is emerging as a buyer. Central banks have been buying gold to hedge risks and diversify, which has contributed to the record highs. Recently, the Chinese government announced that 10 big Chinese insurance companies will now be allowed to put up to 1% of their portfolios into gold. This hasn’t been allowed in the past and will provide about $27 billion for new gold buying. This is also just another sign that countries and businesses are looking to hedge risk by buying gold and it’s one of the safer places to be in an uncertain market.
February 13, 2025 | AG, Daily JAM, Volatility, WPM |
In the current market environment, with uncertainty running rampant and risk climbing, I want to find hedges against a downturn in U.S. stocks. Gold remains an attractive option even though it is trading near its nominal all-time high near $2900 an ounce. I think systemic risk–the odds that something fundamental will go wrong somewhere with the United States, China, and the European Union (through its exposure to Italy) are all worry hot spot–is on the rise. In the U.S. market alone, I see higher risk of a nasty mix higher inflation, slower growth, higher interest rates, and bigger government deficits.
February 8, 2025 | Daily JAM, GLD, Jubak Picks, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is “Gold via 747.” It is extraordinary when big New York banks like Goldman Sachs have hired 747s to fly physical gold from London (where it’s cheaper) to New York. Most investors don’t own a 747 and may not be able to do this trade, but it is indicative of the high degree of uncertainty in the market. Flying gold from London to New York is a truly extreme move, and you wouldn’t see that without an underlying fundamental stress in the market. Gold is trading near all-time highs and you may not make a whole lot of money buying gold ETFs from here, but you would be avoiding some risk in the rest of the market. I have the GLD ETF in my Jubak Picks portfolio and will likely look for another to add.
November 19, 2024 | B, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, GLD, Mid Term, NEM, Special Reports, VZ |
If you’re an investor looking for income, you’re facing what I’d call a Yield Drought. And this is no temporary dry spell. Things on the income investing front look they’ll get worse before they get better. Unless a financial crisis intervenes in 2025 to make everything else much worse and the yield story much better. Because, you see, there are two parts to the current Yield Drought.
