Call this bookkeeping to make sure everYone is on the same page.Yesterday and today I made two picks for me Special Report on the 3 energy crises for the NOW stage in this crisis: BEPC and LNG. Here’s what I wrote:
You’re going to have to be patient with Americold. Morningstar sees the upturn in the cold storage sector as arriving in 2028. That long lead tie to work through pricing and excess capacity in the sector–where Americold is the second largest player in the world–is why the stock is down 41% in 2025 through the close on September 26 and why Morningstar calculates that at todays price of $12.49 the shares trade at a 55% discount to fair value. You’ll be nicely compensated while you wait, though. The REIT, which is required to pass through 90% ofnetincome to shareholders, paid a trailing dividend 7.41%. (By the way, the next quarterly dividend will be paid on October 15 to shareholders of record as of the close of trading tomorrow, September 30.)
I think last week’s 3.17% drop in Walmart (WMT) shares is an opportunity to buy the stock of a retailer that seem perfectly matched with this economy. Tariff increases, an up tick in inflation and a slowing economy have left consumers strapped and looking for bargains. Think that might be a sweet spot for Walmart? The company’s second quarter results announced last Thursday argue that those conditions are just right.
what would a week be without an inflation report. And the week will end on Friday with the Personal Consumption Expenditures index report for July. The Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the core PCE was up 2.8% year-over-year in June and 2.7% in May. Another tick higher wouldn’t be good news for investors counting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its September17 meeting. But THE event of the week will be the earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA) after the close on Wednesday, August 27. Nvidia is expected to report earnings for the fiscal Quarter ending July 2025 of $0.94 a share. The reported earnings per share for the same quarter last year was $0.65. Nvidia faces a challenge to beat lofty expectations. Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to deliver 53% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter and expect a 48% increase in earnings.
Cummins is a member of my Dividend Portfolio. Since the August 10, 2018 date of that pick, the position is up 174%. I’m going to hold Cummins through the August 22 record date and then sell these shares out of the Dividend Portfolio.(The appreciation in Cummins stock has lowered the forward dividend yield on the shares to 2.1%) I will keep my position in Cummins in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
Got to love a global supply chain where trouble at a Chinese lithium producer can lead to today’s almost 7.6% gain in shares of big Chilean producer Albemarle (ALB). Of course, one of the dangers of a global supply chain is that it can be frustratingly opaque. Today, no one is sure exactly why China’s Zangge Mining suspended lithium production at its facility in Qinghai province following directives from local government officials. Or how long the supply shutdown might last.
Today’s Quick Pick is Pan American Silver (PAAS). Gold isn’t the only way to hedge against global economic and currency risks–silver is another great option. It’s a precious metal with industrial uses, so it doesn’t soar as high as a first choice financial hedge as gold, but it’s very affordable right now relative to gold. Pan American Silver just reported solid first quarter results: 5 million ounces of silver, 180,000 ounces of gold, $0.47 earnings per share, and $773 million in revenue. Their all-in production costs for silver are $13.94/oz, while silver’s market price is around $33.64/oz-—a nice margin! Gold production costs are $1,485/oz vs. a market price of around $2,343/oz. The stock even pays a small 1.68% dividend. Morningstar thinks the stock is slightly overvalued, but I think the premium is fair given current market risks. Plus, they recently acquired a 44% stake in the high-quality Juanicipio Silver Mine in Mexico, which should boost production. If you’re looking for a hedge beyond gold, silver—and PAAS specifically—-is a smart choice. I’ll be adding PAAS to my Volatility and Jubak Picks portfolios soon.
I’m adding shares of the ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBF) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios tomorrow, May 28, as a play in the continued decline in prices at the long end of the Treasury market.
Buying the iShares International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) for my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow, May 13. Let’s be clear here–with this ETF you’re giving up some current yield for safety. But with the strong possibility that in 2025 investing in safety can produce decent capital gains.
Today I added shares of Tencent (TCEHY) and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) to my portfolios at least partly on the strength of China’s AI rally. Tomorrow, March 25, I’d adding shares of Alibaba (BABA) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios.
On Monday, March 24, I’m adding these Tencent ADRs (TCEHY) TO my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios.
On January 22, 2025, my position in American Airlines (AAL) was up 46% from my October 22, 2024 buy-in my Jubak Picks Portfolio. As of the close on March 12, however, the stock is down 34% for 2025. And my portfolio position is down 16%. I don’t see any sign of a recovery in airline sector growth or revenue wth the economy clearly slowing. In fact all the major U.S. carriers have recently cut guidance for 2025. So on March 13, I will be selling American Airlines out o my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
COLDWMTNVDACMIPAASTBFIGOVFXY
UUPBABA
