After the Iran war: A revolution in global commodity markets–and you’re probably under invested Part 1 LNG and Uranium
The Iran war isn’t over. We’re either moving into a new extended cease fire or a step back toward heightened conflict or a negotiated honest-to-goodness peace agreement. It’s too early to tell, in my estimation. But it’s not too early for countries and political leaders to be drawing their own conclusions about the lessons of this war. I think those conclusions are likely to result in a revolution in the global commodity economy. And it’s not too early to reorder your portfolio to reflect those lessons. In this Part 1 post, I’m going to outline the two major lessons that countries are drawing from the Iran war, sketch in the ways that those conclusions are going to change the market for two commodities (LNG and uranium)–and related markets–and finally give you a few preliminary stock buys and sells that reflect my understanding of the likely shape of this commodity revolution. In Part 2 next week I’m going to apply this same framework to solar and also look at the likely new commodity choke points as more countries apply the lesson of the Hormuz blockade to other commodities.
