Special Report: 5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market–my last installment on hedging (at least for now)
After Wednesday’s news from the Federal Reserve, we all know that an interest rate increase is coming–even if we don’t know when. Could be 2022. Could be 2023. And even if we don’t know how many increases we’re looking for in that time period. Could be one. Could be two. The need to revise your portfolio to take that change in monetary policy is obvious. But figuring out how and when isn’t by any means straightforward. What gives? And how should be navigate a period that is almost certainly going to end with a reversal of the lower for longer interest rates that have dominated asset prices for decades? Today, for the last installment in my Special Report: “5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market” I’m going to take one last run at how to hedge this market and how to position your portfolio for the developing trends. (I don’t have much hope that this will be the last time I’m visiting this topic, of course.)
Special Report: 5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market–today’s new installment “What happens when a momentum market loses its momentum?” with my #5 stock pick
Before I get around to making the fifth and final stock pick in this Special Report: 5 picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market, let me take a moment to bring my survey of market conditions up to date. Where we are now has a strong influence on what stocks to own and buy and on how to hedge against any downturn. The question I’ve asked in the headline to this post is the critical one now: What happens when a momentum market loses its momentum? I think investors and traders can answer that question by just looking around them.
Special Report 5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market–Thank you market for one more (#2) cheap hedge and one more (#4) stock pick
Today’s installment includes one hedge (on the ViX) and one stock pick (Lam Research.) Now if you’ve been following along with the logic that I’ve laid out in this Special Report, you know that stocks face months of potential volatility around the Fed’s June 16 meeting (What will the Fed say about ending its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases?), the August global central bankers confab in Jackson Hole (Will the Fed use the occasion, as it has done in the past, to indicate a coming change in interest rate policy?), the Fed’s September 22 meeting (Will the Fed be content to say nothing with the next “important” meeting not until December?) and then the central bank’s December 15 meeting.) That’s a large number of occasions that could set the stock market to worrying again. And then, of course, there’s OPEC and the price of oil, the battle over the recently announced Biden budget, the continued logjam on infrastructure spending, and fact that the pandemic is still running at full speed in countries such as India (and who knows what the return of cold weather and forced winter “togetherness” will do to infection rates in the developed economies of the northern hemisphere.) At 16.74 on the VIX, you don’t need a panic to produce a profit on higher volatility. The VIX was at 22.18 on May 19. And then there are the even higher VIX levels of 27.59 on May 12, 28.57 on Marcy 4, and 28.89 on February 25.
2021 will be a very different year from 2020. Or to be more exact the second half of 2021 and 2022 will be very different. We’re looking at going from a financial market where investors and traders believed the Federal Reserve was on their side with cash and more cash to push the prices of financial assets higher and then higher some more to a market where everyone is asking when will the Fed take th punch bowl away and shut down the party.Let me be clear. At this point it’s not the certainty that the Fed will reduce its $120 billion in monthly bond buying in this exact month or that, or the certainty that the Fed will start raising interest rates before the end of 2022, say, but rather the worry that those events are on the calendar, that they will change the trend in the market, and that no one can predict when the turn will materialize.FDR said “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.” To which the market right now says “Exactly.” Look at this “fear and worry calendar” that I’ve put together. And today I’ve got 3 picks and one hedge for this market
Special Report: How to find “real” green stocks–with 10 picks to save the planet: Part 3: My first five (low-hanging fruit) stock picks
Here are my first five stock picks for my Special Report on finding “Real Green” Stocks. These are my “low-hanging fruit” stocks for climate change.
Special Report: How to find “real” green stocks–with 10 picks to save the planet: Part 2 when to buy (and sell) the trends
If any investor wants to figure out what trends to invest in and when are the investing opportunities created by global climate change and efforts to limit the rise in our planet’s temporary, you need to look at every system of signs for clues. That means looking at the obvious, the political discourse as represented by the climate change plans of the Biden administration and the positions staked out by its opponents on the right and left. It means looking at the slightly less obvious, the advertising and public relations spending by companies trying escape the worst effects of the efforts to control climate change (oil companies, for example) and by companies trying to position themselves as champions of the fight to save the planet. And it means studying the much less obvious such as the climate change accounting principles I described in Part 1 of this Special Report to see which actions will be privileged and which penalized by the rules for keeping the books. From my own take on those systems, I’ve come up with a list of climate change trends that I think are worth investing in–and a calendar for when I think you ought to put your money into these trends. In Part 3 of this Special Report I’ll give you the names of 10 stocks that I’d look to use to ride these trends. Today’s segment, though, is devoted to laying out a sense of when to put your money into specific phases of the overall global climate change trend. I’ve divided this “calendar” into three parts.
Special Report: How to find “real” green stocks–with 10 picks to save the planet: Part 1 on how read the numbers; Part 2 my calendar on when to invest in green stocks
Today’s Part 1 is a kind of over view of the state of the art in global climate change accounting. With my suggestions about what principles you should bring to understanding this “information.” Part 2 will take off from this conclusions in Part 1 to try to prioritize opportunities for investing–at a profit–in the battle to control global climate change. Part 3 will use Part 1 and Part 2 to build a portfolio of 10 stocks where I’d put money today given what we can see of the course of that battle over the next decade. So let’s start with Part 1 on how to read the numbers.
Special Report: Profit and Protect–What you need to know about stock market stages for 2021–Updated Part 1 and 2 of 3 with my 10 picks to buy now, my first 4 sells, and my first 2 hedges
2021 is shaping up as an especially challenging year for investors. Much, much more challenging than 2020. I don’t think we can count on this rally running uninterrupted through the year. That would be simple, wouldn’t it? We’d all know how to profit from that scenario. And I don’t think the market is about to drop off a cliff from its current record highs. That would be traumatic. But, still, we do know how to protect a portfolio in that scenario. And even how to profit from a prolonged plunge–if we can bring ourselves to place those short and Put Options bets. Instead 2021 is likely to be one of those years with a Rally Stage and then a correction (or “something”) to be followed by a last quarter of 2021 that is, at this moment, close to completely unpredictable. That would make 2021 one of those years that gives investors a chance to be wrong several times over, to botch timing on the upside and the downside, and to let emotions power some really bad investment moves. I don’t pretend that I’ve got this year’s market stages down perfectly–although I think the outlines for the first two stages for 2021 are pretty clear. I don’t imagine that I’ve got the timing for navigating these stages clocked perfectly–although I do think I understand “generally” when the market is likely to switch gears. And that lets me lay out for you a likely pattern for 2021 and to suggest stocks and ETFs to use to navigate this year. Part of the point in getting as specific as I can at this point isn’t that I expect that I’ve got everything right, but to lay out concrete markers that will let you and me adjust portfolios as the year progresses. I’m dividing this Special Report into three parts.
Special Report: My new Millennial Portfolio (for anyone who has more time than money) with stock picks 1-10
Today I’m starting a new portfolio on JubakAM.com as part of a new Special Report.The portfolio, The Millennial Portfolio (for anyone who has more time than money), isn’t intended to be limited to millennials, that generation from 1981 to 1996. Its strategies and stock picks are aimed at any investor who has more time–to retirement, to college tuition payments for the kids, to the downpayment on a house–than money. But millennials get their name on this portfolio because this generation is such a perfect example of the problem.
Special Report: Everything You Need to Know About 4 Industries You Must Own: Part 1 Is there a better EV stock than Tesla?
So where are your profits going to come from in 2021 and indeed for the next 10 years? Not, I’d argue from a bounce in the consumer stocks that got crushed by the coronavirus pandemic shutdowns. For the next few months, I think you’ll be able to score big profits in airlines, retailers, restaurants and other stocks that have been hammered in the coronavirus economy. It’s already been quite a bounce. And there’s still more upside as coronavirus vaccines get rolled out.But after that? Pheh! Not in those sectors. Airlines haven’t shown a net profit during the life of the airline industry. The retail sector was “over-stored” even before the coronavirus. The restaurant sector was busy devouring its own young. And just how many chicken sandwiches can America eat? No, the really big long-term profits aren’t going to come from a bounce in distressed sectors. But from the invention of whole new products and industries and sectors. They’re going to come from electric cars, artificial intelligence, climate change, and distributed-work software to name just four big but already discernible future trends.
Special Report: Dividend stocks that are beating the risky rockets–Part 1 Five utility picks; Part 2 and the first 2 of 5 vaccine recovery picks
I started off with utility stocks and I’ve now moved on to other dividend stocks within the general argument that dividend stocks–if you pick the right one–are perfect for the post-vaccine economy and stock market rally.
Before the coronavirus pandemic, I used to eat breakfast a couple of times a week at the Manchester Diner a few blocks from my house. Then one day the diner just closed. Common enough in New York City where small local restaurants can go out of business over night...
Special Report: Your Investing Guide for the Next Six Dangerous Stock Market Months (Complete with 14 picks)
Yikes. Does this market have enough volatility for you? And I think that volatility will only get worse over the next two to six months, I can't remember a market with so much potential to move up or down in big relatively short-term volatility as this one. Just as...
Special Report: How to meet your retirement challenge–Complete–Part 1 how we got into this mess (and what’s the size of the problem); Part 2 rethinking some of the strategies and formulas; Part 3 (A & B) strategies and picks
I'm going to divide this Special Report: How to meet your retirement challenge" into three parts. Today, Part 1 outlines the problem, its causes, and its likely duration. Tomorrow, Part 2 looks at the way the crisis has upended rules and assumptions about how to...
Special Report: 10 Global Warming Stock Picks–Special Report: 10 Global Warming Stock Picks–6 Stage One picks, my first Stage Two pick
According to John Lennon, "Life is what happens to you while you are busy making other plans." That's also true of the global warming. ("Climate change," if you want, but I prefer "global warming" because heat is the fuel driving climate change whether the change is...