Special Reports
Special Report: Your 10 Best Moves for the Rest of 2023, Part 2–first 9 of 10 Moves
So what do you do with your portfolio for the rest of 2023? And what’s your best strategy to be prepared for 2024? In Part 1 of this Special Report I laid out the 10 developments that I thought would drive the financial markets for the rest of 223 and into 2024. Today, in Part 2, I’m going to give you the first 2 of 10 moves to take–with as much detail and as many specifics as possible–that you should be making now to position your portfolio for the uncertainties of the last quarter of 2023.
Special Report: Your 10 best moves for the rest of 2023–Part 1, 10 trends for the rest of 2023
In this Special Report I’m going to start by sorting out the data that the market’s moves will likely depend on for the rest of 2023. That’s today’s post, Part 1 of this Special Report. Then I’ll try to handicap the likelihood that the data will zig or zag. And give you a sense of how far away from the current consensus the actual result might fall. And then finally, I’ll give you 10 moves for the rest of 2023 that are the most likely, in my opinion, to result in profits and that won’t wind up costing you big if the data winds up throwing investors a curve.
The crisis in the Florida citrus industry is an example of how we’re still underestimating the effects of the global climate crisis–especially in agriculture (This is my warm up to my Special Report on Investing in a Global Climate Catastrophe)
As cities like Phoenix bake–the city has recorded a record 19 straight days of temperatures above 110 as of July 18–and as 58 million people in the United States are forced to face 3-digit temperatures this week, and as researchers in Europe estimate that the 2023 death toll from extreme heat is likely to surpass the 2022 record to 61,000 (up from 40,000 in 2018 and 2019), you’d think it’s impossible to underestimate the climate disaster now facing us. But it is. The stories about extreme heat (and the deaths from it) and about deaths in flash floods (because hotter air can carry a larger load of water) and in the first recorded tropical storm to hit Los Angeles and about the likelihood that polar bears face extinction focus on what I’d call primary effects of global climate change. But the secondary and tertiary effects of climate change look to be even bigger, more far-reaching, and to have a bigger impact on the daily lives of billions of human beings.The terrifying truth is that our civilization is a lot more vulnerable than we realize because of these secondary effects. The crisis in the Florida citrus industry is a good, if very depressing, example of the power of these secondary (and beyond) effects.
Special Report: Finding the Next Nvidia–my 10 Picks. Part 1, the Parameters for My Search, and Pick #1 Luminar
Certainly, we can all understand the attraction. Back on May 14, 2013, shares of Nvidia (NVDA) closed at a split-adjusted $3.60 a share. On May 1, they closed at $289.53. That’s a gain of 7943% in 10 years. Can we find the next Nvidia? 20/20 foresight would help, of course. But we can learn something about how to find the next Nvidia by examining the history of the current Nvidia. In Parr 1 of this Special Report I established some of the parameters that will guide my search for the next Nvidia. It’s necessary groundwork, I believe. I’ll start the task of building my list of 10 picks for finding the next Nvidia in Part 2.
Special Report: My 5 Favorite Shorts for This Market–Shorts #1, #2 , #3 and #4 (so 1 more to come.)
I’m expecting modestly positive economic news in the next few days. Which will, in my opinion, create a low-risk opportunity to make big gains by going short this market in order to profit as stock prices fall. I’m looking to put the first of those shorts in place right now. With the rest to go into place in the days after the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, May 3. In this Special Report, I’ll explain this perhaps initially counter-intuitive call on short-term market direction and give you the details on five of my favorite shorts for profiting in this market. With the first short pick today
Special Report: 10 Picks for the Coming Recession
10 Picks for the Coming Recession. This one is especially difficult. Not only do I face the usual crystal-ball problem that comes up whenever you try to pick an investment for the future–what’s the macro and micro world going to look like in 6 months or a year from now–but I’ve got two big Recession-specific challenges. First, is there actually going to be a Recession in 2023? All the signs, in my opinion, point toward a recession in the second and third quarters, but it’s by no means guaranteed that we’ll have the two quarters of negative GDP growth that’s required by the minimal definition of a recession. And what’s the point, you might well ask, of making picks for a coming recession that never arrives? And, second, how bad will this recession be?
Special Report: 5 steps for 5 months–your first three moves for NOW
This is going to take me a while to get all five steps posted. The market situation is very complicated right now and the appropriate solutions are very specific. I’m going to start with the short-term moves you need to be making NOW and then gradually extend my recommendations to cover the entire next five months. I’ve now posted Steps #1, #2, and #3
Special Report: 7 AI Stocks to Own Now–with a couple of speculative picks to come on Thursday
You can understand the gold rush: One AI stock is up 105% (and 78% in the last month) in 2023 as of the February 17 close.
But are shares of that company, the software artificial company C3A (AI), the stock you want to own, or is this stock simply a beneficiary of hot money jumping on anything that sounds like artificial intelligence? As one market observer put it on Seeking Alpha recently, “The ticker is more valuable than the company.” This doesn’t mean that the current revolution in artificial intelligence isn’t real. And here I give you my 7 picks for investing in the latest AI revolution
Special Report: How to Save Your Retirement Portfolio Even If You’re Over 50
It’s been a tough market–and a tough decade looms– but taking smart risks using this strategy can save your retirement portfolio even if you’re over 50. You can do it if you take some risk. Some smart risk. Emphasis on the “smart.” The goal is to find a way to get some extra upside return while keeping your potential downside losses to a minimum. And here are my 10 picks for starting a Save Your Retirement Portfolio.
I’m making Pilbara Minerals Penny Stock Pick #9 in My Special Report “Own the Future for Pennies”
On  December 8 I made Australia’s Pilbara Minerals (PILBF) my Quick Pick Video. Today I’m adding it to my Special Report: “Own the Future for Pennies with These 10 Penny Stock Picks as Pick #9. And tomorrow I’m adding it to my Millenial Portfolio: For Investors with More Time Than Money.
Pick #8 for My Special Report Own the Future for Pennies with my 10 Best Penny Stock Picks: ESS Tech
Call this bookkeeping. I recommended ESS Tech (GWH) in my November 11 Quick Pick video on Youtube. Today I’m adding it to my Special Report: Own the Future for Pennies with my 10 Best Penny Stock Picks as pick #8. And to my Millennial Portfolio–For Investors With More Time Than Money. The stock is down $6.44% today November 30 to $3.0386, so this seems a good time to buy for patient, very long-term investors. Here’s what I said in that YouTube video.
Pick #4 for my Special Report 5 Safe Dividend Stocks Paying 6% or More: BHP
You have to do a fair amount of work rearranging the dividend numbers for BHP (BHP) to understand why this diversified commodities producer makes this list. First, throw that 11.02% dividend yield reported on Yahoo Finance and other sources. As part of its corporate strategy of moving away from fossil fuels and investing in expanding existing copper production and in opening its first potash mine (in Canada at a cost of $5.7 billion), BHP sold its petroleum unit. Part of the big “dividend” distribution in fiscal 2021 and 2022 is a result of the company distributing the shares in the purchaser it acquired in payment for that deal to BHP shareholders. Of the $7.11 paid in dividends in fiscal 2022, for example, $3.86 came from the distribution of those shares. If you buy BHP now, you can’t expect a repeat of that distribution of shares. (BHP also sold its U.S. onshore petroleum assets in 2019.) So the question is what dividend payout can you expect from BHP in 2023?
Chartwell Retirement Residences: Pick No. 3 for my Special Report 5 Safe Dividend Stocks With Yields Above 6%
I know I’m not getting any older. Just better. And I’d assume that’s true for you too. But sources tell me that Canadians–yes, Canadians–are aging. And that there’s a growing market for retirement living facilities in Canada. According to Statistics Canada, the current supply of long-term care and retirement suites is 450,000. And by 2038 Canada will have a need for an additional 430,000 suites. Sounds like a growth market to me. And right now you can buy units in the Chartwell Retirement Residences Real Estate Investment Trust (CWSRF) with a 7.61% dividend yield.
Special Report: 5 “Outlier” Dividend Stocks Paying 8% or More–Pick #1 PXD
When I put together my Special Report: “5 Safe Dividend Stocks Paying 6% or More,” one key requirement was that the company showed a long track record of raising dividends every year and the clear potential to continue to raise dividends every year. That formula could turn a 6% annual dividend yield now into 8% or 9% or even more over the next ten years. A safe almost guaranteed 10% yield at the end of 10 years strikes me as a very attractive prospect, especially given how tough I think the financial markets are going to be over the next five years or more. (For more on that outlook see my recently revised Special Report: “Your Best Investment Strategy for the Next Five Years.”) But I realized, looking at all the high-yield stocks that didn’t make the cut for that report that the requirement for a high-probability trend of higher dividends each year for the next 10 years, that this requirement left a lot of stocks paying very attractive high dividends now on the cutting room floor. Stocks paying 8% or more got left off the list because I didn’t see a commitment at the company to continued dividend increases every year or enough growth in free cash flow to make it possible for a company to raise or maintain its dividend through the ups and downs of the business cycle. These stocks paying 8% or more were very safe bets to continue paying that yield for the next year or two. But 10 years? Too much uncertainty. Which doesn’t mean you shouldn’t own some of these stocks now. An 8% or better yield for a couple of years is a very attractive prospect given how uncertain the economy and the stock market are right now. And an investor has a very simple remedy if a company looks like it can’t or isn’t committed to sustaining that yield. Sell the stock. So with all that in mind, I’ve put together a list of five “outlier” dividend stocks paying 8% or more at a time when the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) has a yield of just 1.6%.
November 15 update: Special Report Your Best Investment Strategy for the Next Five Years–with 10 action items and completed revision
Time to revisit my 5 -year strategy in light of all that’s happened in the last month or so. I’m going to start that revision with what’s changed, and what’s going to happen, and then 10 bullet points on changes to my strategy.
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