My Special Report: When will the selling stop? When to buy? What to buy? Complete with the first 3 of 10 Picks
If you worry about what worries me right now, I know what you want to know. When will the selling stop? When will it be a good time to buy “bargains”? And What stocks should you buy when you begin to buy? Those are the three questions that I’ll answer in this Special Report. Along with listing my first three buys on this selling.
Special Report: “5 new economies that will shape the future and 10 stock picks for investing in that future NOW” Part 1: The battery economy with 3 stock picks
I’m starting my Special Report on “5 new economies that will shape the future” with the Battery Economy because 1) it’s important on its own, and 2) it has the power to reshape so much of the macro economy. And that last “because” makes the “Battery Economy” an ideal example of what these 5 new “little” economies are all about and why they’re so important to the future growth of your portfolio.
Special Report: It’s a Market Melt Up!!! Ten stocks to buy; when to sell; and strategies for long term portfolios–today the first 4 picks
Tolstoy was wrong when he wrote at the beginning of Anna Karenina that “All happy stock markets are alike; each unhappy market is unhappy in its own way.” (That’s what it says in the original Russian, I swear.) Truth is that all happy stock markets are different.
There are the long rallies from valuation bottoms that come after a disaster like the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. There are the sharp quick explosive moves higher that come after the passing of a panic with less damage than expected like that after the Pandemic meltdown in the spring of 2020. And, among all the other happy markets, there are the market melt ups that come after a long bull market has already driven valuations to nose-bleed levels. Sometimes that melt up turns out to be the final blow out stage that comes before a big correction–but not always. And sometimes the melt up just drives stocks to a high where they stagnate while fundamentals catch up with prices. I believe we’re in the midst of a market melt up now. In this Special Report I’m going to outline the ways in which this “happy” market is different; give you advice on how to adapt this rally to your portfolio goals; and finally give you 10 picks for profiting from this melt-up.
Yes, we want to buy on the dip. Whenever we get a significant dip. (And significant to me is 5% or more in the major indexes–and 10% or more in specific sectors.) But, we need new strategies for buying on the dip that take into account the market’s valuation problem, the central bank tightening that looks to be in the cards, and the real possibility of a dip in growth below forecasts in 2022. I’ve got fouir strategies to suggest for buying in this market on these dips. And 14 picks to use to execute those strategies.
Special Report: 10 Greatest “Savings Account Stocks”–So far #1 Microsoft, #2 Taiwan Semiconductor, #3 Applied Materials, #4 Adobe, #5 Nvidia, #6 Visa, #7 MasterCard, #8 Intuit
You know how a savings account works, right? You deposit money in a bank. The bank uses your deposit to make a loan. Out of its profits, the bank pays you interest. That interest payment is a pittance today. 0.5% if you’re very, very lucky. But the national average is just 0.06%. What I’m calling “savings account stocks” work the same way that a bank savings account does. (Share prices do fluctuate but in the long run I’d argue that these stocks are as safe as a bank savings account.) And they pay an annual return that’s 10X–or much, much more–higher–than the paltry 0.5% now offered by the highest yielding savings accounts. How do these stocks work and why are they so much better than bank savings accounts? You–investors–give the company capital by buying newly issued shares or company bonds. The company invests that cash in making widgets or apps or whatever. And the company returns the bulk of the profits from those investments to the owners of its stock in the form of dividends, stock buybacks, and the appreciation in share price that results from the growth of the company’s business over time. I’m posting the first of my 10 Greatest “Savings Account Stocks” today and my Special Report will name a total of 10 great “savings account stocks” in posts over the next week. Today’s Greatest Savings Account Stock Pick: Microsoft (MSFT). The average annual return on Microsoft shares has been 28% over the last 10 years. Beats that 0.5% on a savings account, no?
Special Report: 10 Picks for the Code Red on Climate Change–first 10 picks complete JCI, DE, VMC, MLM, VWDRY, ES, NJDCY, DNNGY, VWAPY, EVGO but bonus Part 3 to come
“Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully,” Samuel Johnson wrote in a century when there was much less carbon in the earth's atmosphere. When it comes to global climate change, I guess that even...
Special Report: Fixed income investing is facing a crisis–COMPLETE CONSOLIDATED VERSION–3 tactics and 7 picks so you can fix your income investing crisis–Part 1, The Tactical Framework, Part 2, The 3 buckets and 7 picks
This COMPLETE version consolidates all the 3 parts, 3 buckets and seven picks posted serially for this Special Report
Special Report: Fixed income investing is facing a crisis–3 tactics and 7 picks so you an fix your income investing crisis–Bucket #3 with 7th pick APD
Today I’m going to give you some picks and some rules for finding more candidates for the middle bucket, the 5-year bucket. In terms of the mechanics of a three-bucket income investment system, this middle bucket is critical since it the mechanism for turning the price appreciation of the long-term bucket into the cash income of the short term bucket. And it has to accomplish this task without taking on inordinate amounts of risk since a five-year holding period doesn’t allow a lot of time to recover losses from mistake.
10-year Treasuries: Long-term bucket pick #6 for my Special Report on how to fix your income investing crisis
Long-term bucket pick #6: 10-year Treasuries. On first (and probably second and third) look, 10-year Treasures wouldn’t seem to have a place in my long-term bucket. After all how can they fix any income investing crisis? They are the income investing crisis. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was a meagre 1.22% on July 29. Retire on that! But yield is only one part of the return you can earn if you hold a Treasury bond to maturity–if interest rates fall.
Long-term bucket pick #5: Deere (DE). Any stock that goes into a long-term bucket for a relatively conservative portfolio like this one, faces a tough test. You want the company to be tapped into some explosive long-term trend that will drive growth–but since this is a conservative portfolio you don’t want that trend to be totally or even mostly speculative.
Long-term bucket pick #4: Visa (V). Think of Visa not as a credit card but as a network. We know from watching other networks–Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), for example that a the more customers are plugged into a network, the more attractive that network is for merchants, and therefore the more convenient the network is for consumers. All this adds up to extraordinary profitability with operating margins of 65% in 2020
Special Report: Fixed income investing is facing a crisis–3 tactics and 7 picks so you can fix your income investing crisis–Part 2, The second (of three) buckets
Yesterday I started giving you specific picks so you can start to fill these buckets. I started with the short-term bucket, the most challenging of the three since it requires you to confront the current paucity of assets throwing off yields of even 2% head on. The goals for this bucket were maximum achievable safety since you don’t have much time in this bucket to recoup any temporary losses, a yield that’s as high as possible–anything over 3% these days is gravy. Remember that the higher the yield you can produce from this bucket, the less risk you’ll need to take in your portfolio, and predictable payments in actual cash (or cash equivalents). Remember that you want to be able to spend the returns from this bucket. Today I’m going to give you picks for filling out the third, the long-term, bucket.
Special Report: Fixed income investing is facing a crisis–3 tactics and 7 picks so you can fix your income investing crisis–Part 2, The first (of three) buckets
Today, I’m going to begin to give you specific picks so you can start to fill out the three buckets I recommended in Part 1 of this Special Report. Filling the long-term bucket is probably the most fun–who doesn’t like imagining the wealth that will roll in from finding the next Nvidia (NVDA) or from investing in the current Nvidia. The short-term bucket is the most challenging since it requires you to confront the current paucity of assets throwing off yields of even 2% head on.But let’s start there since the other buckets hang off the short-term bucket.
Special Report: Fixed income investing is facing a crisis–COMPLETE–3 tactics and 7 picks so you can fix your income investing crisis–Part 1, The Tactical Framework, Part 2, The 3 buckets and 7 picks
The big arguments in the financial markets these days are about inflation–will it stay elevated at an annual rate of the better than 5% reported in May and June or will be fall to the 2.5% or so envisioned by the Federal Reserve–and interest rates–the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.21% on Monday, July 19 and some market strategists see 1% in the cards while others are looking for a 2.5% or even 4% at the peak of this cycle. I certainly won’t pretend the results of these arguments don’t matter. Inflation sentiment and interest rate projections are the two biggest drivers of stock and bond prices right now. (Well, maybe in the short term next to worries that a fourth wave in the pandemic will shut down the U.S. and global economies again.) But these arguments matter rather less than you might think to investors saving for retirement and those looking to generate some income from their portfolio either to fund retirement or some other predictable big ticket item (like monthly mortgage payments on a first or second (don’t I wish) home.) That’s because from that perspective the results of these arguments don’t change the portfolio cash flow picture very much
Special Report: 5 Post-Pandemic Picks and 5 Post-Pandemic Pans for a “New Normal”–my first three picks
The pandemic is over. (I’ve got my fingers crossed, I’ll admit, about a resurgence in the winter.) But it has left behind a changed world. The new normal won’t be exactly like the old normal in big and critical ways. For investors. Think of the pandemic as a really painful test for the global economy and individual companies. (As well as a global horror that killed more than 3 million people.) Some companies passed the test with flying colors–and in fact came out of the pandemic with stronger prospects than ever. Others saw the pandemic expose expected or unexpected weaknesses. In this Special Report I’ll be putting together a list of 5 picks and 5 pans for a Post-Pandemic economy.