Shares of ASML Holding (ASML) closed up 8.85% today after the company reported record orders for its chip-making equipment in the fourth quarter. ASML sales grew 12.5% year-over-year. And orders more than tripled from the third-quarter. I added shares of ASML Holding to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio on December 12, 2023. The position is up 17.6% since then as of the close on January 24.
You may have noticed that shares of chip equipment maker ASML Holding have been in retreat lately. The shares are down from a $757 close on December 29 to $700 today, January 4. That’s at 7.5% drop. So what’s up?
GREATER Growth Stock Pick #7: ASML Holding (ASML). ASML Holding is priced like a stock that owns 90% of the market for cutting edge photo lithography chip-making equipment. I want to own this stock as one of my 10 GREATER Growth Stocks, but I worry about paying that kind of multiple (35 times trading 12-month earnings per share), especially ahead of what is shaping up as a challenging 2024 for chip equipment makers in general and ASML in particular. But 2025 looks like a great year for chip equipment makers in general and ASML in particular. So timing is the key issue on buying this one.
Today I’m selling ASML Holding (ASML) out of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. My take on Asmel hasn’t changed: this is one of the key chip equipment companies in the drive to produce smaller and denser chips. What has changed in the market and the global economy. I think that technology, and especially chip stocks, are in a downtrend that has a lot longer to run. And that recent U.S. restrictions on advanced chip technology exports to China will set off a trade war that will come down heavily on companies such as ASML.
If you liked the Trump administration’s trade war with China, you’ll love the Biden administration’s new, more dangerous, escalated version. Rather than slapping tariffs on Chinese goods, and inviting retaliatory tariffs by China on American products, the Biden administration war limits the same of advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment to Chines companies. The action is aimed straight at the heart of China’s efforts to build its own chip industry. And it plays right into a belief, stoked by China’s President Xi Jinping, that China is the victim of a Western plot to prevent the country’s rise to its rightful place in the global order. And the opening blows in this trade war come just as President Xi aims to be installed as China’s newest preeminent leader with a status near that of Mao. I don’t know what the retaliation from China will be, but it is unlikely to stop with a few restrictions on how U.S. companies, such as Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) operate in China. The situation is so dangerous because it is so uncertain and so open-ended.
Yesterday, September 29, after the close of trading DRAM chipmaker Micron Technology (MU) reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of $1.35 a share and adjusted earnings of $1.45 a share. That was down from $2.42 a share in adjusted earnings in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2021. Wall Street was looking for earnings of $1.37 a share. Revenue fell to $6.64 billion from $8.27 billion a year ago. Analysts had been looking for revenue of $6.73 billion. The drop in earnings and revenue was widely expected. Which is why the stock closed up 0.18% today after the earnings. You’d have to say that the big hurt from Micron’s news–and especially from its report that it would cut total capital spending by 30% year over year and spending on wafer fab equipment by 50% year over year–fell on chip equipment makers.
The Chips for America Act looks headed to a cloture vote in the Senate on Thursday. As the $52 billion bill now stands, it includes $39 billion for semiconductor companies to “build, expand, or modernize domestic facilities.” Here are the winners as I see them.
Here we go again. It’s not that we really have any more information about the Omicron Variant–we certainly don’t know what its effects will be on global economic acuity–but just as fears that the Covid-19 variant would send the world back into lockdown crushed stocks last week, this morning, December 7, a belief that Omicron won’t be all that bad has taken root and stocks are soaring in morning action.
After yesterday’s selling, we’re getting a bounce today. But, significantly, the bounce in stocks is much less “bouncy” than the Monday bounce from Friday’s plunge.
Yes, we want to buy on the dip. Whenever we get a significant dip. (And significant to me is 5% or more in the major indexes–and 10% or more in specific sectors.) But, we need new strategies for buying on the dip that take into account the market’s valuation problem, the central bank tightening that looks to be in the cards, and the real possibility of a dip in growth below forecasts in 2022. I’ve got fouir strategies to suggest for buying in this market on these dips. And 14 picks to use to execute those strategies.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the dominant independent chip manufacturer in the world, reported earnings today, October 14, of $1.08 per share for the September quarter. Wall Street analysts hd expected earnings of $1.04 a share. The stock closed up 2.35% today on the news.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the globes biggest independent chip foundry, said last week that it expects the chip shortage that has left automakers scrambling for silicon and cutting back production will be over by the end of the third quarter. Whether that’s good news or not depends on how much weight you give to this company’s projections.