August 17, 2026 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Government borrowing costs in Paris, Berlin, Washington, Tokyo and London hit their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis on Monday as investors feared the Middle East crisis would keep inflation higher for longer. Oh, and toss in worries over big government deficits.Fears that central banks would continue to tighten monetary policy, to prevent inflation bursting out of control, pushed up bond yields as traders sought a higher rate of return for holding government debt. The money markets indicate there is almost an 85% chance that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates in September. The ongoing Middle East crisis pushed oil prices up by 6% last week, and Brent crude rose higher on Monday as the U.S. and Iran struggled to end the war and President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of his effort to end the war.
June 29, 2026 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
The yen slid to touch 161.98 versus the dollar in New York trading on Monday, breaching the 161.95 mark touched in July 2024 during an earlier campaign by Japan to shore up the exchange rate.The last time the yen traded at this level it was barreling in the opposite direction, midway through a massive and years-long rally that followed a currency accord engineered by the United States. Not this time. Now the yen is sliding as Japan is on its way out of an economic funk that lasted for a generation. The currency weakness is boosting the profits of exporters, and in turn helping the nation’s stock market to record highs. But import costs are swelling, notably for oil and gas shipments priced in dollars. The ensuing inflation is hurting consumers, who are paying more for everything from food to electricity, and threatening to undermine the popularity of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government. And the drop is fueling worries about what a weak or simply unpredictable yen could mean for the global bond market and especially the market for U.S. Treasuries.
January 27, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Traders in the $9.5 trillion-per-day currency markets are betting on further losses in the dollar. Today, January 27, the dollar sank, deepening a four-day selloff that’s sent it to the lowest since early 2022, after President Donald Trump indicated he’s comfortable with those declines. “No, I think it’s great,” Trump told reporters in Iowa on Tuesday when asked if he was worried about the currency’s drop. “I think the value of the dollar–look at the business we’re doing. The dollar’s doing great.” The president’s statements were seen as giving a green-light to traders to sell the dollar.
October 9, 2025 | Daily JAM, FXY, Perfect Five-ETFs |
Today, Friday, October 10, I’m selling the Invesco CurrecyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio. The ETF is down 2.4% since I added it to this portfolio on March 31, 2025. All of that loss has common the last week. They has dropped 3.9% against the dollar since October 3 as of the close on October 9. The yen now trades at its lowest levels since mid-February. What’s up?
June 2, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
After falling on Monday, the dollar resume its decline today. And Wall Street banks project that the drop will continue. Goldman Sachs, for example, called the dollar 15% overvalued. Morgan Stanley said the dollar will tumble to levels last seen during the Covid-19 pandemic by the middle of next year.
May 14, 2025 | Daily JAM, FXY, Videos |
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is: Dollar Down, Yen and Euro Up. Recently, the market has bounced back from the dip after April’s tariff announcements, but there’s something people might be overlooking: if the Fed cuts rates due to an economic slowdown, the dollar will likely weaken. That’s not all bad—it could mean cheaper U.S. exports and lower gas prices globally (tariffs permitting). But it’s surprising how few investors are factoring this in. A while back, I added the Invesco Japan Yen Currency Shares Trust (ETF) to my volatility portfolio, and it’s already up about 10% year-to-date as the yen strengthens against the dollar. Similarly, the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) has gained 9.38% this year. (All those performance figures are from before the China tariff deal. Since then the dolor was up on Monday then down on news that the U.S. had signaled to South Korea that it would like a weaker dollar.) Living in Venice, I’ve noticed the euro’s strength firsthand—great for investments, not so great for my daily espresso budget! If you’re looking for a relatively safe play in uncertain times, shifting some dollar-denominated assets into yen or euro ETFs could give you a solid 3-6% return while the dollar softens. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was (before Monday) already down nearly 8%, so diversifying could be a smart move.
May 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks |
Now you need to own more besides U.S. stocks. But what? With my answer, here’s my Special Report: 10 Picks from the Rest of the World
March 30, 2025 | Daily JAM, FXY, Perfect Five-ETFs, Short Term, UUP |
On Monday, March 31, I will sell the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index BullishFund ETF (UUP) out of the Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio and replace it with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY). I will leave the portfolio weighting at 25%. The yen ETF is up 5.32% in the last three months as of the close on March 28. It charges a 0.40% expense ratio.
September 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Volatility |
I think of Nvidia (NVDA) as this market’s warning indicator; it’s the canary in a coal mine; the bird that will die first if dangerous gases start to build up. So, yes, it’s important that Nvidia shares plunged from $134.91 on July 10 to $98.91 on August 7. And again from $128.83 on August 28 to $102.83 on September 6. But the shares are up again–15.83% last week–to $116.78 This canary seems to be sending a rather more complicated message than “Look I’m dead! See my feet in the air?” What’s the message, though?
August 6, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Today, Tuesday August 6, the Nikkei 225 index closed up 10.23% in Tokyo. That erased most of Mondyay’s 12% loss. And it led to the U.S. futures market opening higher and U.S. stock indexes moving up today. At the close in New York, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was ahead by 1.03%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 0.76%. The NASDAQ Composite had gained 1.03% and the small cap Russell 2000 had added 1.23%.The volatility eertainly isn’t over but today the market is following the usual patterns–with buying on the drop emerging after a big sell off–and that’s a big relief after the panic-inducing movement of the last three sessions. Those on Wall Street trying to figure out where we are in the unwinding of the yen/dollar carry trade that has lent so much intensity of the drop ay that the selling of dollar assets to buy ten isn’t over. Which makes sense.
April 2, 2024 | Daily JAM |
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is Buy Japanese Yen. I frankly can’r remember the last time I recommended buyinfg Yen. No one has wanted to buy the Yen for a long time, and it was the last major currency to have negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan has finally moved interest rates into positive territory. But, just barely. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are currently at about 4.2% and the gap is about 3.5% between that and the Japanese government bond. A popular short is betting that the gap will get even wider. And the Yen is under speculative attack with market pressure to driving it down lower. But the Yen is currently too low, the Bank of Japan is starting to say ans the current price against the dollsr is around where it was the last time the Bank of Japan intervened. It’s likely we’ll hear more talk of intervention in the next three months or so and because there’s such a large short position we’re likely to see a decent pop in the Yen. To take advantage of this (potential) bounce, you can use the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY). Also, I would hold on to any Japanese stocks until we see that bounce. This isn’t a long term play, nor should it be a big chunk of your portfolio, but it’s a play that could see pop in the next three months.
January 4, 2023 | Daily JAM |
Late in December, the Bank of Japan announced, unexpectedly, that it was adjusting its policy for buying bonds. Even something as vague as that is enough to rattle financial markets because Japan is the world’s largest creditor. At the end of 2021, it held roughly $3.2 trillion in foreign assets, 30? more than No. 2 Germany. As of October, it owned over a trillion dollars of U.S. government debt, more than China. Japanese banks are the world’s largest cross-border lenders, with nearly $4.8 trillion in claims in other countries. The policy change was relatively minor–a decision to raise the ceiling on yields for the 10-year bond. But global bond markets have been waiting for any signs that say the days of 0% (or lower) bond yields in Japan might be coming to an end.
