You Might Have Missed
June 15, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, You Might Have Missed |
The projections released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, June 15–the so-called Dot Plot–show a central bank that sees a tough 2022, especially on interest rates and inflation, but a definite improvement in 2024. This fits with the developing Wall Street narrative that sees inflation dropping in 2023 and 2024 and the Fed looking to cut interest rates in 2024.
June 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Millennial, Top 50 Stocks, TSM, You Might Have Missed |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world’s largest independent chip producer, expects revenue to grow about 30% in 2022. Sales growth this year should accelerate from 2021’s 24.9% (in dollar terms), Chairman Mark Liu said at the company’s annual shareholder meeting on Wednesday, June 8. That’s a bump higher on company guidance in April of growth topping mid- to high-20% in 2022.
June 2, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-ninth YouTube video “Beware the Dot Plot” went up today. The next Fed meeting is June 15, and I think there isn’t much to worry about in terms of a coming rate increase (we know it will be 50 basis points, which the market has priced in). What you do need to look out for, however, is the Dot Plot. This communicates Fed members’ expectations for growth and inflation in the coming years, and if they foresee stickier inflation AND slower economic growth, the market won’t be happy.
May 13, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
It’s easier to explain why stocks, especially technology stocks, staged a huge rally today, Friday May 13, than to predict whether or not the BIG BOUNCE will continue on Monday. But here’s my take and my recommendation for what to do on Monday.
May 12, 2022 | Daily JAM, Videos, You Might Have Missed |
My one-hundredth-and-thirty-third YouTube video “My fear is a credit crunch” went up today. My fear is a credit crunch. I’m not as concerned with the Fed raising rates, or a recession–those are sort of run of the usual events. But a credit crunch would be a different thing–think Global Financial Crisis. I think signs are pointing to a credit crunch on consumers, which threatens to make any coming recession much worse. In this video, I lay it out. Take a look, and be careful out there.
May 11, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, You Might Have Missed |
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, fell in April to a year over year rate of 8.3%. That was down from an 8.5% rate in March, raising hopes that the economy had seen the inflation peak. But economists had been projecting a drop to 8.0% in April.. Which left financial markets considering the possibility that while inflation was falling, the pace of the decline would be disappointingly slow. Also worrisome was an unexpected gain in core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices. Core CPI inflation was up 0.6% in April from March after a 0.3% month to month increase in March.
April 27, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks, V, You Might Have Missed |
After hours on Tuesday, April 26, Visa (V) reported earnings of $1.70 a share. That modestly beat analyst projections of $1.65 a share for the quarter. But it was a big jump from the $1.35 a share in the first quarter of 2021. Visa’s shares were up 6.47% on Wednesday. Visa is a member of my Jubak Picks Portfolio where it is up 239.26% since I added it to that list on November 15, 2015. As of April 28 I’m raising the target price on Visa in Jubak’s Picks to $266 from the prior target of $194. I will also add the stock to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
April 22, 2022 | Daily JAM, Long Term, You Might Have Missed |
A study published today, Friday April 22, from the Center on Research on Energy and Clean Air says that at least 18 new coal plant projects abroad will probably go ahead despite China’s pledge to stop building coal power plants overseas. The plants have secured financing and permits. In addition, China’s Premier Li Keqiang confirmed a goal of 300 million tons of new coal production capacity in 2022, up from 220 million tons added last year. China already consumes and produces about half the world’s coal.
April 20, 2022 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Videos, You Might Have Missed |
My one-hundredth-and-twenty-third YouTube video “Netflix, Inflation, and Demand Destruction” went up today. Today I’m covering Netflix’s (NFLX) crash after releasing its subscriber numbers showing the loss of 200K subscribers for the quarter and predicting a loss of ten times that many for next quarter. I think we are starting to see signs of demand destruction due to ongoing inflation. That demand destruction will only get more severe as the Fed continues to raise rates.
April 11, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
Economists surveyed by Reuters are projecting that inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will climb to 8.4% year over year for March against an 8% rate in February when data is released tomorrow before the open of the U.S. stock market.
April 9, 2022 | C, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, KBWB, Perfect Five-ETFs, Short Term, USB, WFC, You Might Have Missed |
Big banks will kick off another earnings season beginning with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Wednesday, April 13. Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) follow on April 14. Bank of America (BAC) reports on April 18. Bank earnings forecasts present a complicated picture for the quarter–which is only appropriate since that’s true of Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings forecasts as a whole.
April 5, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
In remarks prepared for a Tuesday speech to the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said “Currently, inflation is much too high and is subject to upside risks. The committee is prepared to take stronger action if indicators of inflation and inflation expectations indicate that such action is warranted.” And she called for reducing the Fed’s balance sheet as early as next month. The bond market certainly heard Brainard’s remarks as a promise of more action faster.
