August 22nd, 2019, 3:37 PM
The financial markets aren't backing off. They're pricing in high odds of another 65 basis points to 75 basis points in interest rate cuts by the end of 2019. That means a 25 or 50 basis point cut at the September 18 meeting followed by another 25 to 50 basis point cut at the December […]
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August 21st, 2019, 4:15 PM
The financial market didn't get what it had hoped for out of today's release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July 31 meeting. The market was hoping for something in the minutes that pointed toward a shift in Fed policy toward an extended cycle of interest rate cuts. What it got instead was evidence […]
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August 20th, 2019, 1:59 PM
It didn't take much to end the optimism of the past few days and turn the market at least mildly pessimistic today. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNBC this morning that Huawei Technologies isn't the only Chinese company that poses security risks to the United States. Well, duh! Not so far back the […]
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August 19th, 2019, 3:11 PM
Gotta love that financial market enthusiasm for central banks. Last week the markets rallied on signals from the European Central Bank that it would cut its key interest rate--now at a negative 0.40%--to a negative -0.50%, lower the rates that banks pay to borrow money from the central bank, and restart its program of quantitive […]
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August 16th, 2019, 4:54 PM
We've seen this play before: Financial markets start to tumble and central banks step in--not with actual stimulus quite yet but certainly with talk of stimulus. The European Central Bank and the German government took a turn today. Germany's Der Spiegel magazine reported today that Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz would be willing […]
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August 15th, 2019, 3:36 PM
Retail sales in July climbed 0.7% from June. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had predicted a 0.3% climb. Retail sales excluding autos were up 1.0% month over month. Economists had projected a 03% gain.. Nonstore retail sales (that is the Internet) were up 2.8% after a 1.9% jump in June. Food services were among the strongest […]
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August 14th, 2019, 12:58 PM
As of noon today New York time, the Standard & Poor's 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are both down 2.42%. The NASDAQ Composite is lower by 2.78%. The Russell 2000 small cap index has tumbled 2.66%. And the iShare MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has dropped 2.59% Which is actually a better performance […]
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August 13th, 2019, 3:48 PM
Just in case you were wondering: Nothing matters to the stock market except tariffs. I think today's trading proves that. This morning the Trump administration announced that it would delay new 10% tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods set to go into effect on September 1 until mid-december for an unspecified list of Chinese […]
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August 12th, 2019, 2:47 PM
Brazil's central bank released a key gauge of economic activity today that signaled that it's likely Brazil fell into recession in the second quarter. The country’s economy activity index, which is a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.13% in the second quarter from the first quarter of the year, according to the Banco Central […]
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August 9th, 2019, 4:48 PM
This morning President Donald Trump said that talks with China planned for next month could be called off. “We’ll see whether or not we keep our meeting in September,” Trump said as he left the White House for a fundraiser in the Hamptons. “If we do, that’s fine. If we don’t, that’s fine.” What's interesting […]
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