January 16th, 2020, 11:39 PM
China's economy grew by 6.1% in 2019. That's down from 6.6% in 2018. But the 2019 figure meets the government's target, and December industrial output rose 6.9% year over year, ahead of the 5.9% forecast by economists. Retail sales climbed by 8% against a forecast of 7.9%. (One caveat: The Lunar New Year arrives earlier […]
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January 16th, 2020, 3:28 PM
Well, that certainly didn't take long. With the ink barely dry on the Part 1 trade agreement between the United States and China, the European Union said that the deal could violate the rules of the World Trade Organization. EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said his team will scrutinize whether China’s pledge to increase purchases […]
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January 15th, 2020, 4:48 PM
The United States and China signed a Part 1 trade deal today that contained little in the way of positive surprises and an expected lack of detail. As analysts and economists struggled to fill in the blanks, much of the deeper dive wound up stressing the negatives in the deal. For example, although China pledged […]
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January 14th, 2020, 2:27 PM
This morning JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported that fourth quarter earnings jumped 21% with annual earnings for 2019 rising to a record $36.4 billion. Chalk this one up to a rebound in trading revenue, especially fixed income trading where revenue came in $1 billion above analyst estimates. That good news today was balanced by negative news […]
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January 13th, 2020, 4:56 PM
Today has continued a pattern that emerged last week. With the odds improving that the United States and China will sign a Part 1 trade agreement on Wednesday (or so), the risk on, momentum stocks that led the market in 2019 have reasserted their leadership. Technology has been especially strong last week and again today. […]
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January 10th, 2020, 4:30 PM
The U.S. economy added 145,000 jobs in December That did set a record of 10 years of job growth for the economy. But the 145,000 job growth in December was below the 256,000 added in November and below the 160,000 expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. (I would note that the November numbers were inflated […]
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January 9th, 2020, 4:53 PM
Today in its semi-annual report Global Economic Prospect, the World Bank warned, again, of the risk of a new global debt crisis as a result of the biggest buildup in borrowing in the past 50 years. Of the four waves of debt accumulation since the 1970s, the current binge is by far the largest, fastest, […]
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January 8th, 2020, 4:30 PM
After last night's Iranian attack on the U.S. troops stationed at two Iraqi airbases and a relatively restrained morning message from U.S. President Donald Trump, financial markets have decided to take profits in oil and cybersecurity stocks today. And wait for the next stage in this confrontation? Oil prices, which had climbed on fears that […]
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January 7th, 2020, 4:12 PM
The U.S. manufacturing sector may be in deep and continued contraction, but according to the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers Non-manufacturing Index, the U.S. service sector--the bulk of the U.S. economy--hit a four-month high in December. The non-manufacturing index climbed to 55 in the month, from 53.9 in November. That 55 reading exceeded the […]
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January 6th, 2020, 2:24 PM
As of 2 p.m. New York time today, January 6, U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate was up 0.17% to $63.16 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude was ahead 0.34% to $68.83 a barrel. Both increases came on worries that Iran's retaliation for the U.S. assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani would disrupt Middle East […]
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