Morning Briefing
April 3, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility |
After weeks of trying to believe that President Donald Trump wasn’t serious about imposing massive tariffs on the rest of the world, Wall Street heard president Trump do exactly that from the Rose Garden yesterday. And today stocks opened down biggly. At 11:20 a.m. New York time, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 4.21%. The NASDAQ Composite and the NASDAQ 100 were lower by 5.24% and 4.64%, respectively. The small cap Russell 2000 had tumbled 4.63%. Shares of Apple (AAPL) were down 8.64%. Nike (NKE) was off 11.79%. Nvidia (NVDA) was lower by 6.66%. Why the huge drop?
April 2, 2025 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NKE, WMT |
My first take away from President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden speech on his new global reciprocal tariff plan is that it worse than expected. In some cases shockingly worse.
April 2, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Senate Republicans have unveiled a budget blueprint that includes a $4 trillion (over 10 years) extension of President Donald Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, an additional $1.5 trillion in further tax reductions, and an increase in the debt ceiling of up to $5 trillion. Senate Republicans say they want to ensure that Congress does not need to vote on the debt ceiling again before the 2026 midterm elections
The Republican-controlled House recently pass a budget framework with $4.5 trillion in total cuts. And a $4 trillion incree in the debt ceiling.
Republicans say they are using accounting that assumes the cost of extending the expiring 2017 Trump tax cuts is $0.
April 1, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S.factory activity contracted in March for the first time this year and prices accelerated sharply for a second month. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index declined 1.3 points last month to 49, according to data released Tuesday. In this index readings below 50 indicate contraction.
March 31, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Goldman Sachs’ influential strategist David Kostin has just cut his target for the Standard & Poor’s 500 for a second time this month. (Kostin had first reduced his target from 6,500 on March 11.) He now expects the index to end the year at around 5,700 versus his previous estimate of 6,200. The new target implies a gain of just 2% from Friday’s close. In other words, you’d be better off buying a 6-month Treasury paying 4.23% and holding it to maturity.
March 30, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
It’s not clear who White House advisor Peter Navarro speaks for but on Sunday he spoke up loudly for more tariffs. On Fox News Navarro claimed Sunday that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs would raise more than $6 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade. Exactly why that’s a good idea wasn’t clear from Navarro’s appearance since it would amount to the largest peacetime tax hike in modern U.S. history.
March 28, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose in February at a faster pace than in January. The rate of increase was also greater than economists had expected
March 27, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Friday’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy—-the central bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation-—is forecast to show signs of stickiness.
March 26, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
President Donald Trump will announce auto tariffs on Wednesday afternoon, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said during a briefing with reporters at the White House.
Details of the tariffs are unclear–who following White House “policy” on tariffs is surprised at that? Stock markets fell on news. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down 1.12%. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.04%.
March 25, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S. consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest level in four years, according to the Conference Board’s survey.
The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence fell 7.2 points to 92.9. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 94. A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped nearly 10 points to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years
March 24, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff on exports to the United States.
This “secondary tariff” will take effect on April 2, the president announced in a Truth Social post.
March 21, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Just five minutes before Wall Street’s close, the Standard & Poor’s 500 erased a slide that earlier in the session exceeded 1%. The index closed up 0.08% on the day. The NASDAQ Composite added 0.52%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 2.63% to 19.28. These relatively minor directional moves came despite huge volume.
