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Archive for the ‘Morning Briefing’ Category

Tomorrow’s opening speech by Powell at Jackson Hole central bank gabfest gets more and more interesting

The financial markets aren't backing off. They're pricing in high odds of another 65 basis points to 75 basis points in interest rate cuts by the end of 2019. That means a 25 or 50 basis point cut at the September 18 meeting followed by another 25 to 50 basis point cut at the December […]

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No consensus at the Fed in July for faster interest rate cuts, minutes show

The financial market didn't get what it had hoped for out of today's release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July 31 meeting. The market was hoping for something in the minutes that pointed toward a shift in Fed policy toward an extended cycle of interest rate cuts. What it got instead was evidence […]

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Market goes to pessimism on trivial Pompeo comments–tells ya something, though

It didn't take much to end the optimism of the past few days and turn the market at least mildly pessimistic today. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNBC this morning that Huawei Technologies isn't the only Chinese company that poses security risks to the United States. Well, duh! Not so far back the […]

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Markets bet that Fed will follow ECB this week to announce something “spectacular”

Gotta love that financial market enthusiasm for central banks. Last week the markets rallied on signals from the European Central Bank that it would cut its key interest rate--now at a negative 0.40%--to a negative -0.50%, lower the rates that banks pay to borrow money from the central bank, and restart its program of quantitive […]

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Central banks talk the markets up: Here we go again!

We've seen this play before: Financial markets start to tumble and central banks step in--not with actual stimulus quite yet but certainly with talk of stimulus. The European Central Bank and the German government took a turn today. Germany's Der Spiegel magazine reported today that Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz would be willing […]

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Retail sales stronger than expected–there’s hope yet of fending off a recession

Retail sales in July climbed 0.7% from June. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had predicted a 0.3% climb. Retail sales excluding autos were up 1.0% month over month. Economists had projected a 03% gain.. Nonstore retail sales (that is the Internet) were up 2.8% after a 1.9% jump in June. Food services were among the strongest […]

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Stocks fall in wave of bad news–but hold up better than expected (all things considered)

As of noon today New York time, the Standard & Poor's 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are both down 2.42%. The NASDAQ Composite is lower by 2.78%. The Russell 2000 small cap index has tumbled 2.66%. And the iShare MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has dropped 2.59% Which is actually a better performance […]

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Market rallies: Nothing matters but tariffs

Just in case you were wondering: Nothing matters to the stock market except tariffs. I think today's trading proves that. This morning the Trump administration announced that it would delay new 10% tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese goods set to go into effect on September 1 until mid-december for an unspecified list of Chinese […]

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Add Brazil to a growing list of economies in recession or near recession

Brazil's central bank released a key gauge of economic activity today that signaled that it's likely Brazil fell into recession in the second quarter. The country’s economy activity index, which is a proxy for gross domestic product, fell 0.13% in the second quarter from the first quarter of the year, according to the Banco Central […]

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The stock market seems resigned to a long delay in U.S.-China trade talks

This morning President Donald Trump said that talks with China planned for next month could be called off.   “We’ll see whether or not we keep our meeting in September,” Trump said as he left the White House for a fundraiser in the Hamptons. “If we do, that’s fine. If we don’t, that’s fine.” What's interesting […]

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