AI stocks–actually any stock with a passing acquaintance to artificial intelligence technologies–stood out on the upside today, April 13, in a generally ho-hum market The Standard & Poor’s 500, let me remind you, rose just 0.33% on the day. But AI stocks–by the most generous definition–scorched higher.,
You could buy VWAGY, trading today, April 5, at $37.00, up 4.27% or you could buy VWAPY at $29.27, up 2.92%. (A search for VW ticker will discover another 21 symbols on various European exchanges but for U.S investors these two ADRs are the major choices. Both are ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) on Volkswagen’s German shares. But there’s a considerable difference between these two ADRs. For example, on April 5 VWaGY showed an average daily trading volume of 1.34 million shares. VWAPY, on the other hand, showed an average volume of just 232,327 shares. So what’s the difference?
The one certainty in the stock market right now, I’d say, is volatility. Both to the upside and to the downside. So I think we should take what the market is giving us. Using these three moves in the short term.
I’ve scrubbed through the 20 stocks in the Dip-O-Meter, with updated numbers as of the close on Friday, March 26, looking for the best three buy on the dip trades. (Why only three? Because I think the same volatility that has created these profit opportunities makes it hard to be certain of a trend and I don’t want to bet the farm with the current degree of uncertainty. My choices for trades that I’ll put on tomorrow in my Volatility Portfolio are SunRun (RUN), Teladoc (TDOC), and PayPal (PYPL). These are all going into my Volatility Portfolio
In my Trick or Trend post on Saturday, March 27, I argued that the increasingly serious chip shortage experienced by car makers was bad for car stocks (since car companies are having to cut production), but good for chip makers who concentrate in the auto sector (since they are seeing rising demand and increasing pricing power) and even better for chip equipment makers (since they were already on a roll to meet higher demand for equipment to expand chip production and are now very likely to see that extra demand for chip equipment run higher and longer.)I already own shares of two chip makers that are seeing rising demand and increasing pricing power: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Infineon Technologies (IFNNY). I own NXP in my Volatility Portfolio–up 97.16% since June 2, 2020. I own Infineon in my Jubak Picks Portfolio–up 81.38% since May 6, 2019. And I also own shares of chip equipment maker Applied Materials in my Jubak Picks and 50 Stocks portfolios. Applied Materials has been a member of my Jubak Picks Portfolio since January 14, 2021 (for a gain of 21.59% as of the close on March 26) and of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio since December 31, 2017 (for a gain of 151.64%.) Today, Monday March 29, I’m adding shares of ASML (ASML), the leading producer of lithography equipment to draw circuits onto chips. That stock gained 7.14% on Friday and is now up 28.28% for 2021 to date.
Car makers have put investors on notice that a severe shortage of chips is forcing them to curtail production. Volkswagen, Toyota, and General Motors have all reported halting production due to a shortage of silicon and the companies have suspended forecasts of manufacturing volumes because of the shortage. Volkswagen, for example expects a drop in production of 100,000 cars in the first quarter. Electric car maker Nio has suspended production at its Chinese plant for 5 days due to the shortage. And the shortage looks to be getting worse.
A couple of weeks before Christmas, Disney (DIS) decided that the pandemic coast would be clear enough by May for it to send Black Widow, the next Marvel universe potential blockbuster–to movie theaters in May. Not so far, the company has now decided. With rates of infection rising again across the country, Disney has decided to push the theatrical release of Black Widow, starring Scarlett Johansson, to July.
After the close on Monday February 22 Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported a loss of $1.42 million (or $1.48 a share) on revenue of $1.02 billion million for the company’s fiscal second quarter. Adjusted earnings–which exclude share-based compensation and other items, were $1.53 a share. Revenue grew by 25% year over year. Wall Street had been looking for adjusted earnings of $1.43 a share on revenue of $986 million. Billings for future orders ross to $1.21 billion from $999 in the year ago wearer. Analysts had forecast billings of $1.18 billion. But the shares fell in after hours trading when in its conference call the company forecast adjusted earnings of $1.27 to $1.29 a share on revenue of $1.05 to $1.06 billion for the fiscal third quarter. Analysts were looking for adjusted earnings of $1.29 a share on revenue of $1.05 billion for the fiscal third quarter. For the full fiscal year Palo Alto Networks forecast adjusted earnings of $5.80 to $5.90 a share on revenue of $4.15 billion to $4.2 billion. Wall Street had been looking for $5.79 a share in adjusted earnings on revenue of $4.12 for the year. On the plus side of the ledger there are two reasons that I’m keeping this company in my Jubak Picks Portfolio and my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio
On to Stage #2 in my Special Report: “Profit and Protect–What you need to know about stock market stages for 2021. And to my rules for the sells and hedges in Stage #2 for 2021: When you win, you lose. (I just posted sells for ILMN, CTVA, WST and VMW)
2021 is shaping up as an especially challenging year for investors. Much, much more challenging than 2020. I don’t think we can count on this rally running uninterrupted through the year. That would be simple, wouldn’t it? We’d all know how to profit from that scenario. And I don’t think the market is about to drop off a cliff from its current record highs. That would be traumatic. But, still, we do know how to protect a portfolio in that scenario. And even how to profit from a prolonged plunge–if we can bring ourselves to place those short and Put Options bets. Instead 2021 is likely to be one of those years with a Rally Stage and then a correction (or “something”) to be followed by a last quarter of 2021 that is, at this moment, close to completely unpredictable. That would make 2021 one of those years that gives investors a chance to be wrong several times over, to botch timing on the upside and the downside, and to let emotions power some really bad investment moves. I don’t pretend that I’ve got this year’s market stages down perfectly–although I think the outlines for the first two stages for 2021 are pretty clear. I don’t imagine that I’ve got the timing for navigating these stages clocked perfectly–although I do think I understand “generally” when the market is likely to switch gears. And that lets me lay out for you a likely pattern for 2021 and to suggest stocks and ETFs to use to navigate this year. Part of the point in getting as specific as I can at this point isn’t that I expect that I’ve got everything right, but to lay out concrete markers that will let you and me adjust portfolios as the year progresses. I’m dividing this Special Report into three parts.
Genome sequencing equipment maker and consumables supplier Illumina raised its forecast for 2021 sales growth to 17% to 20% for 2021
Disney shares drop 1.7% today as traders take profits after yesterday’s beat on fourth quarter earnings and revenue
