Today, I’m going to review the fundamental case for Wyndham shares (the reason I added it to Jubak Picks on March 17) and give you the details on the Call Option on Wyndham that I’ll be adding to my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow.
The one certainty in the stock market right now, I’d say, is volatility. Both to the upside and to the downside. So I think we should take what the market is giving us. Using these three moves in the short term.
Today, May 29, the Biden administration announced an ambitious plan to expand wind farms along the East Coast. The goal would be to see the United States produce 30 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2030. That’s just a little ambitious since U.S. offshore wind power production right now is 30 megawatts (a gigawatt is 1,000 megawatts) from one wind farm off Rhode Island. Europe, in contrast, already has 24 gigawatts in operation, and the United Kingdom aims to have 40 gigawatts online by 2030Besides generating enough power for 10 million U.S. homes, the plan would cut 78 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions.
Car makers have put investors on notice that a severe shortage of chips is forcing them to curtail production. Volkswagen, Toyota, and General Motors have all reported halting production due to a shortage of silicon and the companies have suspended forecasts of manufacturing volumes because of the shortage. Volkswagen, for example expects a drop in production of 100,000 cars in the first quarter. Electric car maker Nio has suspended production at its Chinese plant for 5 days due to the shortage. And the shortage looks to be getting worse.
U.S. banks that pass their next stress tests will be allowed to raise their dividends after June 30, the Federal Reserve said today, March 25. The Fed will also lift any remaining restrictions on stock buybacks.
Wyndham Hotels and Resorts is a relative bargain for anyone looking to profit from the “vaccine rally.” The stock is up only 19.9% for 2021 as of the close on March 16. Most of that (18.4%) has come in the last one one month. Given the likely resurgence in travel and Wyndham’s focus on the leisure travel market in the low to medium priced segment, I think the stock has more room to run. I’ll be buying the shares tomorrow for my Jubak Picks Portfolio with a target price of $84 a share. The stock closed at $70.41 today, March 16.
Shares of MGM Resorts International (MGM) are up 15.16% since I added them to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on February 11, 2021. I don’t think the gains are done for this casino and hotel stock. Today I’m raising my target price to $48 a share from the current $42
Last time, way back on February 23, when I posted on an everything is down market, I said that I didn’t think we were yet at buy on the dip time, but that I was doing a little selective nibbling at stocks such as Applied Materials (AMAT) that had extraordinarily strong 2012 growth stories. Well, I’ve been doing a little nibbling today–again I’m not buying everything on the drop since I can’t tell where the bottom might be.
Shares of biotech stock Incyte (INCY) have been down significantly in 2021. For the year to date, as of the close on March 2, the shares were down 8.45%. In the last month they’ve tumbled 12.42%. So what’s wrong? Pretty much nothing. With the individual stock anyway. What we’re watching is a lot of selling in the biotech sector as part of the recent sell-off on risk. And on substantial profit taking.
After the close on Monday February 22 Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported a loss of $1.42 million (or $1.48 a share) on revenue of $1.02 billion million for the company’s fiscal second quarter. Adjusted earnings–which exclude share-based compensation and other items, were $1.53 a share. Revenue grew by 25% year over year. Wall Street had been looking for adjusted earnings of $1.43 a share on revenue of $986 million. Billings for future orders ross to $1.21 billion from $999 in the year ago wearer. Analysts had forecast billings of $1.18 billion. But the shares fell in after hours trading when in its conference call the company forecast adjusted earnings of $1.27 to $1.29 a share on revenue of $1.05 to $1.06 billion for the fiscal third quarter. Analysts were looking for adjusted earnings of $1.29 a share on revenue of $1.05 billion for the fiscal third quarter. For the full fiscal year Palo Alto Networks forecast adjusted earnings of $5.80 to $5.90 a share on revenue of $4.15 billion to $4.2 billion. Wall Street had been looking for $5.79 a share in adjusted earnings on revenue of $4.12 for the year. On the plus side of the ledger there are two reasons that I’m keeping this company in my Jubak Picks Portfolio and my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio
On to Stage #2 in my Special Report: “Profit and Protect–What you need to know about stock market stages for 2021. And to my rules for the sells and hedges in Stage #2 for 2021: When you win, you lose. (I just posted sells for ILMN, CTVA, WST and VMW)
I’m very reluctant to go bottom fishing here–since I can’t tell where the bottom might be and the one-day losses are significant here. Tesla (TSLA), for example, was down 8.06% TODAY. That’s $59.80 dollars a share. Teladoc (TDOC) dropped 13.74% or $34.98 a share. Guessing wrong on a bottom could be very expensive here. But I am willing to try a few trades. Nothing fancy. Very short-term. But using stocks with very strong longer-term stories that make me feel good about the longer-term prospects for the stocks. And to believe that there are significant numbers of potential bargain hunters hiding in the bushes. So, for example, I’ve been trading in and out of the Call Options on Applied Materials (AMAT).
