Last Wednesday, July 28, Chinese financial regulators told big investors–banks and investment groups heavily exposed to China’s stock market–not to worry. China’s financial markets were sound and despite the fears engendered by the government’s crackdown on the country’s private, for-profit, education companies, the government was not looking to reverse decades of growth by companies in China’s private sector. The meeting worked. Stocks of companies like Meituan (MPNGF), China’s dominant food delivery company (with ambitions to become a full-range e-shopping competitor) rose to $30.07 on the day from $26.00 the day before. But the reassurance worked for only a few days. Today, August 3, for example, Meituan was back in the red, falling 4.48% to $26.95 to erase almost all of its “re-assurance” bounce. Today, I’m selling Meitun and Naspers (NPSNY), a South African company with a huge position in China’s Tencent Holding (TCEHY) out of my Volatility and Jubak Picks Portfolios, respectively.
Special Report: Fixed income investing is facing a crisis–3 tactics and 7 picks so you can fix your income investing crisis–Part 2, The second (of three) buckets
Yesterday I started giving you specific picks so you can start to fill these buckets. I started with the short-term bucket, the most challenging of the three since it requires you to confront the current paucity of assets throwing off yields of even 2% head on. The goals for this bucket were maximum achievable safety since you don’t have much time in this bucket to recoup any temporary losses, a yield that’s as high as possible–anything over 3% these days is gravy. Remember that the higher the yield you can produce from this bucket, the less risk you’ll need to take in your portfolio, and predictable payments in actual cash (or cash equivalents). Remember that you want to be able to spend the returns from this bucket. Today I’m going to give you picks for filling out the third, the long-term, bucket.
After picking up; 1.3% yesterday, shares of Microsoft added 1.23% today, Friday, July 23, as Wall Street analysts raised earnings estimates ahead of the company’s July 27 earnings report. It’s a tried and true earnings season game: No analyst wants to be on the wrong side of a strong earnings report so the days before a company is due to report earnings brings a raft of new, higher target prices.
On Thursday, July 15, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world’s leading chip foundry, reported earnings of 93 cents a share for the second quarter, up 18% year over year. That was inline with analyst estimates. Sales rose 28%. The company raised its revenue guidance for the third quarter to a range of $14.6 billion to $14.9 billion. The midpoint of that range, $14.75 billion, was above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $14.57 billion. Sales in the third quarter of 2020 are $12.4 billion.Taiwan Semiconductor said that it now expects sales to grow more than 20% this year, an increase from the 20% target announced earlier in the year. For 2020-2025, the company raised its revenue forecast to a compound annual growth rate of 15% from a previous target of 10% to 15%. But the stock dropped 5.5% on July 15 and fell another 1.52% on Friday, July 16. Why?
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My thirty-fourth YouTube video “QuickPick: 3 reasons to buy Deere” went up today.
Trick or Trend: A huge ransomware attack says “Buy another cybersecurity stock” and I’ll post my pick on Tuesday
Another day; another ransomware attack. This one is being called the largest non-national-state supply-chain cyberattack ever seen (and possibly the largest cyberattack ever, period.)
Yesterday in my video “3 Picks for an Earnings Blowout” I argued the case that even the 61% second quarter year to year jump in earnings in the Wall Street analyst consensus was understated.. There’s a very high likelihood that we’ll see lots of positive earnings surprise in the second quarter earnings season the begins on July 13 when JPMorgan Chase reports earnings before the market opens. In that video I suggested three stocks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) as picks to play that second quarter earnings surprise. Today I’m adding one of these Advanced Micro Devices to my online portfolio with shares in my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio and Call Options in my Volatility Portfolio.
That didn’t take long. On Thursday the Federal Reserve reported that all 23 big banks tested in its annual stress test, passed. Which means that the last remaining restrictions on dividend increases and share buybacks are now history. Yesterday big banks started to announce dividend increases
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-ninth YouTube video “5 stock picks for the infrastructure deal” went up today.
News that White House and Senator group have struck a deal on infrastructure sends the usual suspects higher today
The White House has announced that it has struck an infrastructure deal with a bipartisan group of 10 Senators. There are almost no details on the deal and it’s not at all clear that President Biden will be able to convince the progressive wing of his own party to support the deal. On the other side of the aisle, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has not endorsed the deal. As I do the math, if only the 5 Republican Senators who were part of the negotiating group vote for the deal in the Senate, it will fail to clear the 60-vote threshold necessary for passage if McConnell and other Republicans decide to filibuster the legislation. All that aside, today the usual infrastructure stocks gained.
Copper stocks have been moving steadily higher recently in anticipation of a turn in the eight week downward trend in the price of copper itself. Today, the price of copper is showing some of the upward movement that the rally in copper stocks anticipated.
General Motors (GM) will boost global spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025. That’s a 30% jump over its last spending plan, Reuters reported today.