June 1, 2023 | AMAT, AMD, CVS, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, EMR, GOOG, ILMN, Jubak Picks, Long Term, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, TSM, Volatility |
Artificial intelligence really is a paradigm-breaking, transformative technology. Right now, investors are so enthusiastic about the sector, especially the obvious leader Nvidia (NVDA), that we’re looking at a potential bubble that will collapse with much gnashing of teeth and I-told-you-so “wisdom” casting doubt on the reality of the entire endeavor. I think a bubble is indeed possible. Nvidia did trade at a trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 196 on May 31, after all. But I think you do want to own the sector now–because the breaking of the bubble, if it does break is, in my opinion, two quarters or more away. And you want to own the sector for the long run–say, 10 years or more–because it is such a game changer for so much of the economy. But what to own? I’ve put together a list of the 10 stocks that I think are the best way to participate in the AI gold rush.
April 26, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
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April 20, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, NEM, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM). Newmont is the world’s largest gold miner but the stock hasn’t benefited very much from the recent rallies in gold. Unlike Barrick Gold, Newmont is not a low-cost miner, but it does have huge reserves as well as promising joint ventures–including one with Barrick in Nevada. The company is growing production and produced about 2.2 million ounces of gold in 2022, with production going up to a forecasted 2.7 million by 2027. Newmont likely hasn’t seen a huge rally yet because of the cost of energy. Mining gold takes a lot of energy and with recently higher gas/diesel prices, costs of mining and production have gone up and margins have been squeezed. However, looking forward to mid or late 2023, those margins will, in my opinion, start to look a lot better. If we hit a recession while inflation remains relatively high and energy prices come down, Newmont will benefit from lower costs and recession gold rallies. I would call Newmont my second choice gold stock to Barrick. Morningstar rates Newmont at 10% undervalued right now. This is a good time to buy and look for it to outperform in the second half of 2023.
April 13, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MRNA, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA). You’re familiar with Moderna as the developer of one of the RNA-Covid vaccines. The stock market has been treating the stock like the company was a one-trick pony with sales dependent totally on the demand for Covid-19 vaccines. But I think of the MRNA Covid-19 vaccine as proof of the validity of Moderna’s technology platform which takes a lot of the risk out of what is still an early-stage biotech stock. The company now has 36 other vaccines in its development pipeline using the mRNA technology that was proven effective in the Covid vaccines. Around six of those are expected to launch in the next few years. The huge jump in revenue from the Covid vaccines “shot” the stock up around 900%. (The company’s revenue was $155 million in 2018, and at the end of 2022 its revenue was $19.3 billion.) But more recently, the shares have been in a steep decline and Morningstar now calls them 40% undervalued. The stock has pulled back further in the last week or so on news that results from some trials have not been positive enough to lead to early termination of the trials. The huge revenue–and the resulting profitability–from the Covid-19 vaccines put Moderna in a unique position for such a young biotech company. They’re able to fund their own research, clinical trials, and the development of new products internally. That means the company doesn’t have to sell off a share of future profits and revenue on new drugs or vaccines in order to fund research and development. I’ll be adding the stock to my Jubak Picks portfolio tomorrow, April 14.
April 11, 2023 | Daily JAM, INTC, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
I will sell Intel (INTC) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow, April 12. The position was up 14.55% as of the close on April 11 since I added it on February 8, 2023.
April 7, 2023 | Daily JAM, PXD |
The Wall Street Journal reported today, Friday, April 7, that Exxon Mobil (XOM) has held preliminary, informal talks with Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) about a possible acquisition.
March 30, 2023 | ADBE, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
In Step #3 of my Special Report: 5 Moves for the Next 5 Months, on March 24 I added three Big Tech stocks–Microsoft (MSFT), Adobe (ADBE), and Nvidia (NVDA) to my Volatility Portfolio ahead of earnings season. My theory, explained in that post was that we were facing a tough earnings season for most stocks and that reliable earnings growth from Big Tech would make those stocks look like a safe haven in a period when the Standard & Poor’s 500 as a whole was projected to show a drop in earnings. (I also owned up to my mistake in selling Nvidia back on February 16. That was just wrong. More on why I was wrong and why I’ve changed my mind on that in a post tomorrow or so.)
March 16, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Barrick Gold (NYSE: GOLD). There are three big arguments for owning gold, and Barrick Gold specifically, right now. Number one is that gold always does well when the markets are volatile and people are unsure where else to put their money. Gold is the safe haven. Second, if the Fed pauses rates, gold will be back on the upswing. Gold generally doesn’t pay dividends, so if interest rates are higher, people will put their money where they can get a return through dividends (not gold), but as the rate hikes stop, gold will become more attractive. The third reason is specific to Barrick Gold because although it’s a gold mining company, it gets about 18% of its revenue from the copper it mines alongside the gold. The market for copper has been growing with the renewable energy transition. Electric vehicles use massive amounts of copper and copper miners haven’t been investing to keep up with future demand. Year to date (as of March 10), Barrick was down about 6.81% and Morningstar calculates it as 24% undervalued. While I mentioned that most gold stocks don’t pay a dividend, Barrick actually does, at about 3.23%, and they just announced another $1 million stock buyback. As the turmoil in the market continues, Barrick will continue to go up as people look for a safe haven from the chaos.
March 13, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
This week’s Trend of the Week is Voter Suppression…in China. During the most recent National People’s Congress in China, two people were notably not invited–entrepreneurs Tony and Pony Ma, the heads of Alibaba and Tencent. Other entrepreneurs were also notable for their absence. Xi Jinping has made it clear that entrepreneurs have a much smaller role in his economy going forward, as he looks to consolidate power in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party and prevent any potential competition from power centers. Xi’s new policies, coming out of the National People’s Congress, focus on spending by state-run businesses and emphasize consumer spending, as opposed to infrastructure, as a source of economic stimulus. So how should you invest in China? Despite Pony Ma’s absence at the People’s Congress, Tencent Holdings (OTCMKTS: TCEHY) remains at the forefront of Chinese innovation and technology. It’s clear that China will not adopt US-made chatbots and will develop its own. Tencent looks likely to take a leading role in that effort. The company is also the dominant game producer in the world and gets a lot of its revenue from outside of China. It’s the China stock I’d look at for the long term. In the short term, I’d look at JD.com, which is well-suited to get a bounce from the emphasis on consumer spending. The current price is a good entry point. I’ll be adding it to my JubakPicks.com portfolio tomorrow.
March 3, 2023 | CCJ, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
When I added Cameco (CCJ), the big Canadian uranium producer, to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on February 22, 2023, I argued that plans by China and India to burn more coal, despite a potentially catastrophic increase in global temperatures, meant that the world would have to put plans to phase out nuclear power on hold. And that a world desperate to avoid the worst climate outcomes would lead to a revived nuclear power industry–and higher uranium sales for Cameco. Now California has provided a roadmap for exactly how and why this will happen.
February 28, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Short Term, USO |
Oil prices fell again in February with crude dropping another $2 a barrel on the month. Crude prices really didn’t show much of a trend in February as worries over an economic slowdown caused by higher interest rates battled signs of tighter supply. The reading range for the month was the smallest since July 2021. Signs of increased demand from China and the continued bite of sanctions against Russia point to gains for oil in coming months.
February 28, 2023 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, PXD |
On Friday, shares of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) fell on a Bloomberg story reporting rumored talks between the Permian Basin oil shale producer and Appalachian natural gas producer Range Resources (RRC). On Monday shares of Pioneer rebounded as the company denied that it was in acquisition talks. The lesson? Investors really don’t want Pioneer to spend money on acquiring more assets.
