The ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBF) is up 10.22% for 2026 as of the close on September 23. The ETF, which gains as long-dated Treasury bonds fall in price, is likely be a profitable hedge–and indeed just plain profitable–into 2027 as we get more interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve at its December meeting and into 2027.
Another day, another 9-basis-point jump in the yield for 10-year Treasuries. The yield hit 5.20% today and is now up 51 basis points in a month and 106 basis points, that’s a little more than a full percentage point in a year. (Remember rising yields mean falling bond prices.) These are extraordinarily big moves in the normally slow-moving Treasury market. And this high degree of volatility is itself producing worry and hedging and selling in the bond market.
Waiting for a catalyst on Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) has certainly been trying. But today the stock gained 36% on news of very positive Phase 2 obesity data for injectable VK2735, Viking Therapeutics’ dual GLP-1/GIP agonist.
In Part 1 of this deep dive into the revolution in commodity markets set off by the Iran war, I focused on why the lessons currently being drawn from this war were a negative for LNG stocks and a plus for nuclear and uranium stocks.
Today in Part 2, I’ll go into why solar energy is a surprising winner from the war. And Part 3, coming soon, will cover how the lessons of the Strait of Hormuz are leading countries to look for new choke points. Or to spend big cash lessening their dependence of commodities with clear choke points.
You can see it–maybe–if you carefully squint at the year-to-date chart for gold. From $5311 an ounce on March 2, the price of gold has moved consistently lower to 4009 on June 24. And then, it looks to me, gold has formed a low ar that level. The precious metal closed at $4,126 an ounce on July 2. On the fundamentals this “should” be a bottom too. Inflation, gold’s best friend rumbles along at 3% to 4%, depending on the index you follow. The U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled that it sees inflation moderating with the end of the Iran war. (Oh, it’s over? I must have missed the press release.) And that, therefore, there’s no need to raise interest rates at the July or September meetings. More central banks than ever expect to increase their gold reserves, a sign one of the key forces behind bullion’s record-breaking rally remains intact despite this year’s pullback. In a survey of 74 central banks, 45% said they plan to buy in the coming year, the biggest-ever share in data collected by the World Gold Council and YouGov Plc since 2018. Just one said it planned to cut holdings, the WGC said in a report Tuesday. Even the big recent drop in oil prices may be more of a plus than a minus for gold. Since while lower oil prices are likely to damp inflation, lower oil prices also relieve the pressure on the currencies of oil importing countries, such as India, to sell gold to defend their currencies.
I’ve owned shares of AbbVie (ABBV) in my Diividend Portfolio since January 29, 22020. The gain during that period through the close on June 30 has been 201% plus dvidends. (The stock currently pays a 2.72% forward dividend.)
Besides my adding to me position in the Dividend Portfolio, I will adding a new position in my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow, July 1.
The challenge during most of that time has been how the drug maker would find the revenue growth to make up for the gradual erosion of revenue from its blockbuster Humira as that drug came off patent. AbbVie has done a good job in that transition and the deal to buy Apogee Therapeutics for $10.9 billion will bolster its portfolio of anti-inflammatory drugs amid growing competition for its best-selling Skytizi.
I think higher interest rates are more if a When? than an If? My advice is to cut the bond exposure in your portfolio–especially at the long end. Money market funds that emphasize very short-term Treasury paper are a good alternative–they are essentially cash substitutes. And I wouldn’t limit my selling to just U.S. issues. Tomorrow I’m selling my position in the iSHARES International Treasury Bond ETF (IGOV) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The position is up 1.75%–plus interest payments–since I added it to the portfolio on May 12, 2025. The ETF is down 1.39% for 2026 to date as of June 8.
Pan American Silver (PAAS) reported earnings and revenue on Tuesday that met my goals for a silver miner in this market. My premise is that the silver stock to buy is one that combines expanding production with declining production costs. Which is exactly what Pan American Silver reported.
If you want to add more silver exposure or want to get more aggressive with silver in your portfolio I suggest adding the shares of silver mining companies that are forecasting big increases in silver production in 2026 and beyond.
My picks here are Endeavour Silver (EXK), which in 2026 will see the first full-year contribution from its Terronera mine and the newly added Kolpa mine, and Pan American Silver (PAAS) because of its La Colorada Skarn expansion. I’d start with Pan American Silver because it has an extraordinarily low All-in Sustaining Cost of $15.00 to $16.25 per ounce.
Silver futures closed at $75.560 an ounce on April 24. I added Pan American Silver to my Jubak Picks Portfolio (on my free JubakPicks.com and my subscription JubakAM.com sites) on June 2, 2025. That position was up 114% since then through April 24, 2026.
I will be adding shares of Endeavour Silver (EXK) to that same portfolio on those two sites Monday, April 27.
I don’t know how long the weakness in gold might last–gold is down 8.4% from the start of the Iran war on February 28 through the close on April 20. Or how big any further decline from here might be-—my crystal ball is not doing a bang-up job of predicting the twists, turns, ultimatums, and reversals in this crisis. But I would once again use the short-term selling as an opportunity to build long-term gold positions. On the assumption that you’ve got a basic gold position in place, I’m going to look beyond ETFs that hold physical gold and silver to suggest two gold mining stocks that have significant leverage to the price of gold.
I already own shares of Cheniere Energy (LNG) in my Jubak Picks Portfolio and my Volatility Portfolio. I will add another position in my 50 Stocks Portfolio on on Monday, March 23.
Today I’m adding Costco Wholesale (COST) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
I’m looking for stocks of companies that might actually benefit from the effects of the war with Iran on the U.S. economy. There aren’t many candidates. Costco is one. (Walmart is another but it’s already in the Jubak Picks Portfolio where it’s up 27% since my pick on August 25.)
