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Archive for the ‘Long Term’ Category

The importance of the 5% tariff that President Trump just slapped on Mexico is way bigger than the number suggests

It's only 5%, Wall Street is saying today in what clearly sounds like an effort to convince itself when investors really know better. That unconvincing "happy talk" is why the Standard & Poor's 500 index was down only 1.24% at the close today, May 31. (I say "unconvincing" because the oil markets, which have been […]

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16 months on the S&P 500 with no gain–what’s it mean?

I have my theories about this--which I'll post tomorrow, Tuesday, May 28--and the facts certainly deserve an explanation. About 16 months ago on January 26, 2018 the Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at 2872.87. During the next 16 months, the markets would witness the extraordinary stimulus of the December 2017 tax cut. The United […]

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Go how high would a carbon tax have to be to fight global warming?

It's interesting to me, as someone who works in a field (investing) where numbers are important much if the time and eventually have significance and consequences, that the big current argument against the Green New Deal is that it would cost too much. Let's ignore for the moment the important question of how much is […]

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China’s stock markets re-open to dose of negative news

Welcome back! The Shanghai and other Chinese stock markets re-opened today after the Spring Festival/Lunar New Year holiday. And investors and traders were greeted with a dose of bad news. First, according to the official China Daily, China's economic growth rate will slide to 6.3% in 2019. That would be a further drop from the […]

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U.S. Treasury borrowing to double in 2018 to $1.34 trillion.

Amazing what important financial news can get pushed off the front page these days. On Monday the drop of even more U.S. indexes into correction territory and reports that the White House was teeing up new tariffs on another $250 billion in Chinese goods pushed truly stunning news from the U.S. Treasury out of mind. […]

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U.S. Treasury sets borrowing record in first quarter–Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin–What me worry?

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This market indicator is signaling trouble ahead–in 2020 (Strange: That’s the same year the CBO estimates the annual U.S. budget deficit will hit $1 trillion.)

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How to manage risk in this market when the traditional risk safe havens aren’t working

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Trump’s announcement of steel and aluminum tariffs sink U.S. stocks

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What we learned in this rout: This is what a late stage market looks like

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