Long Term
March 8, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Journey back with me to the heady days of 1999 when another technology boom pushed stocks to record highs on the promise of revolutionizing everything. Why is this exercise important?Because it’s a real life example of the work on the role of monopolies in our economy by economists like Joan Robinson and Paul Sweezy. Their work begins with the extreme excess returns that companies with effective monopoly power generate–and points to the important role that monopolies play in the business cycle of boom and bust. And because monopoly economics are critical to deciding if the current generation of AI stocks are really going to be worth what investors now say they are.
February 25, 2026 | Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Top 50 Stocks |
China’s AI disruptor DeepSeek is preparing to introduce a new model. Reuters had initially reported that DeepSeek would launch its next‑generation model “V4,” focused on coding, in mid‑February 2026. Rumors now peg the expected release window as “Q1–Q2 2026.” The mid‑February window has passed but context‑window changes and internal benchmark leaks signal that V4 is close. And it will be a BIG DEAL for AI competitors AND ai chipmakers such as Nvidia (NVDA). A big enough deal that the V4 release will move the entire tech sector and quite probably the stock market as a whole.
January 25, 2026 | AAPL, Daily JAM, GLD, GOOG, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Mid Term, MSFT, NVDA, PAAS, SCCO, Top 50 Stocks, WPM |
A week of Big Tech earnings reports will confirm or reverse what sure looks like a sector rotation away from tech shares and into metal and mining company stocks.
January 22, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
In my opinion, 2025 WAS the year that nuclear fusion went from “If” to “Is it cost competitive?”
January 20, 2026 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Mid Term, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
Taiwanese semiconductor and tech companies, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the chip foundry critical to global AI supply chains, have committed at least $250 billion in investmentS to build and expand chip, energy, and AI production capacity in the U.S.
January 19, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing |
Sometimes we put economic datapoints into different series. And that makes its hard to create a unified picture of what’s going on in a country’s economy. I’d argue that’s the case with China right now. And the two economic data sets released on today, Monday, January 19. Put the two sets of figures together and China is facing an economic crisis.
January 12, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Special Reports |
A suggested quantum computing portfolio. If you want a piece of this Next Big Thing, but with less risk and less upside than a pure-play quantum stock, I’d suggest Alphabet/Google (GOOG). Among pure plays I’d include D‑Wave Quantum (QBTS), up about 235% year‑to‑date as of late 2025; Rigetti Computing (RGTI), up34% YTD by late December; and IonQ (IONQ), up around 25% year-to-date by late December.
January 8, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
I’d argue that the bIg news out of the 2026 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas so far isn’t about new chips, or flashy hardware across TVs, PCs, phones, and robots.
It’s all about speed: Nvidia (NVDA) pushed up the launch schedule for its new Vera Rubin AI computing platform by several months from late 2026 to the middle of 2026. Vera Rubin promises about 10x higher throughput and 10x lower token cost than the prior Grace Blackwell platform. The chip now looks be available to customers in the second half of 2026. Cloud partners like AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft, and CoreWeave planning Rubin-based instances starting in that second half 2026 window.
January 6, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
New numbers raise more questions about Open AI’s projections for future revenue. Not a tiny question considering the company’s most recently completed round of fundraising valued the private company at $500 billion. A new round, not yet closed, would value the company at $750–830 billion.
January 6, 2026 | Daily JAM, Long Term, SCCO, Top 50 Stocks |
Copper is up 44% in theist 12 months and the rally looks set to continue on a conjunction of a speculative and fundamental short squeeze. Today, Tuesday January 6, copper extended a powerful rally through $13,000 a ton for the first time. Three-month futures surged as much as 3.1% to a record $13,387.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange on Tuesday, surpassing a peak set on Monday. So what’s driving this explosion?
December 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing |
In November U.S. government debt in Treasuries topped $30 trillion for the first time. Ever. The size of the debt has more than doubled since 2018.
December 2, 2025 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
I take everything from both extreme speculative bulls and extreme negative bears with a grain–or more–of salt. Members of each camp talk their own positions and certainly aren’t above cherry-picking facts to buttress their own views.
But I do take shorts like Jim Chanos very seriously. In his long career on the short side of the market Chanos has proven himself to be a well-informed analyst of company weaknesses and corner-cutting. So I think it’s very important to listen when he has joined his voice to those pointing to serious accounting problems at AI companies and the possibility that those accounting problems could lead some of the huge amount of debt that AI companies have issued this year to blow up. Chanos and other short sellers like Michael Burry have focused on the use of asset backed debt to pay for the huge build out in AI data centers. The problem, these shorts say, is that many of these new AI companies–particularly in the part of AI called “neoclouds–have used assets in the form of Nvidia (NVDA) chips to secure large loans to buy more AI chips to scale up their operations. But, and this is the crux of the shortsellers’ case, they are using unrealistically long schedules to depreciate the value of these assets–5 or 6 years when the life of these technology assets is more like 2 to 3 years.
