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Posts Tagged ‘inflation’

Is that inflation we see?

The core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, picked up in May by 0.2% from April. That took the annual inflation rate to 1.6%. That was just above the median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg and still way under the Fed's target of 2% inflation. But if you look […]

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Economy added surprisingly strong 263,000 jobs in April; wage gains, labor participation are red flags

The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April. (The March jobs number was revised downward.) The gains for April exceeded all estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. In March the Federal Reserve had forecast that unemployment would falll to 3.7% by the end of 2019. There were a […]

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Fed lesson today: Don’t count your interest rate cuts before they hatchet

Stocks, bonds, and President Donald Trump were disappointed today when the Federal Reserve left interest rates alone and said that low inflation could be transitory. There's no reason to either raise or lower interest rates at the moment, Fed chair Jerome Powell said after the Fed meeting today.  Powell told reporters that that the policy stance […]

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Has President Trump talked himself into a box with his Fed criticism?

The Federal Reserve speaks today at 2 p.m. on inflation, interest rates, and the economy. Ahead of our efforts to parse the prose, it's worth taking a minute to think about the likelihood that President Donald Trump's very public criticism of the Fed has molded the Fed's public statement--and in opposition to his preferences. By […]

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More of the same in today’s economic data: low inflation, good growth in consumer spending, but lagging incomes

Put today's numbers on the economy together with those in Friday's first quarter GDP report and the picture that emerges is of a U.S. economy growing at s very solid rate with declining inflation. But where the trends on consumer incomes and spending suggest, maybe, trouble down the road. This morning the Bureau of Economic […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

... to be drowning in economic data. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, May 1, isn't even the high point of the data week. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged so it's Chair Jerome Powell's press conference after the meeting that will draw most of the attention. […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

... a relatively muted week for economic data--Consumer Price Index inflation on Wednesday (expected core inflation of 0.2% for the month vs 0.1% last month) and initial claims for Unemployment on Thursday (forecast 212,000 versus 202,000 in the prior week)--will let the battle over the Federal Reserve's two open seats and the direction of interest […]

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Trick or trend: White House new pick for the Fed continues effort to politicize central bank

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. President Donald Trump announced Friday that he would nominate Stephen Moore to fill an open […]

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Core CPI inflation up 2.2% year over year

For January, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation was unchanged, thanks to falling oil prices-the energy component of the index was down 3.1% for the month. The Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices and is closer to the PCE inflation index that the Federal Reserve follows, was up 0.2%. That increase […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

... everything in the way of economic news to get crammed into Thursday and Friday after a quiet start to the week. On Thursday, investors and traders get news on initial claims for unemployment (How strong is the job market?), the purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector, and auto sales (How strong is the […]

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