July 14, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
American consumers got some relief in June after months of soaring prices. The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.5% in June from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. That represented a cool-down from May, when annual inflation hit 4.2 percent, a three-year high. Prices actually fell 0.4 percent from May to June, the largest outright decline since 2020. BUT… The improving inflation picture was largely the result of tumbling oil prices.
July 7, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Financial markets increasingly believe inflation is coming down, but borrowing costs are headed higher. Rising bond yields are pointing to higher real interest rates even as inflation expectations moderate
.This means that the decline in oil prices has brought little relief to rate-sensitive sectors. Mortgage rates have bounced around near 6.6% in recent weeks, well above the 6% rate in late February before the attack on Iran.
July 3, 2026 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
On June 17, in his press conference after the Federal Reserve’s meeting, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh said no more forward guidance on interest rate moves. He even, personally, made a point of not voting in the update of the Fed’s Dot Plot projections on interest rtes, inflation, and economic growth. Then on July 1, Warsh appeared on a panel with other central bank leaders at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal. He again declined to pre‑commit on the July rate decision. he also said inflation remains “too high.” But he noted that inflation risks have come down in recent weeks as inflation expectations and some energy‑related pressures eased. The financial markets certainly read these remarks as an indication–not forward guidance, of course–that the Fed would not raise interest rates at its July or September meetings. I think you’re entitled to ask What’s the difference between the old policy of forward guidance and the new policy of announcing forward conclusions based on trends picked out of the data, somehow? (I would note that neither Warsh or anybody else at the Federal Reserve KNOWS how quickly the inflationary pressures created by the Iran war will diminish.) I’ve got two answers to that question.
June 21, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Expect more bad news from Thursday’s release of the PCE inflation number. Forecasters expect the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’d preferred inflation index, to show acceleration on both a monthly and year-over-year basis in May.
June 17, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% in its first gathering with Kevin Warsh in the chair. Warsh vowed to restore price stability following his first policy meeting since taking the helm of the U.S. central bank. “Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” Warsh said in his debut press conference as chairman. Officials “are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.” Which would seem to signal an intention t raise rates to battle inflation. But maybe not in Warsh-speak.
June 13, 2026 | Daily JAM |
If your love for the dramatic wasn’t satiated by last week’s SpaceX IPO launch, this week will being more thrills with the oh-again, off-again, nobody knows what’s in the agreement Iran war peace deal, and Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve interest-rate setting body, the Open Market Committee.
June 10, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Inflation crossed the 4% annual rate for the first time in three years in May.
CPI inflation reached an annual rate of 4.2% in May, the highest in three years and up from a 3.8% rate in April, according to the Consumer Price Index released Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Energy prices accounted for more than 60% of May’s surge. Taking out energy and food, core CPI inflation rose 2.9% year over year, the biggest increase since September. The increase in consumer prices outpaced the 3.4% wage growth measured by BLS at the end of April.
June 7, 2026 | Daily JAM |
As of June 6, researchers at the Cleveland Federal Reserve who put together the bank’s inflation Nowcast are projecting that May CPI report scheuled for Wednesday, June 10, will show annual headline all-items inflation climbing to 4.18% up from 3.81% in April. Core CPI inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected at 2.81%
June 5, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Average hourly wage growth over the past year slowed slightly in May, rising 3.4% over the past 12 months to $37.53 an hour. This marks the slowest pace since 2021. After years of real gains, wage growth is no longer keeping up with inflation, at 3.8%, adding new strain to Americans’ family budgets.
June 5, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than economists had expected. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%. With revisions, March and April added 93,000 more jobs than previously reported. That puts average job growth in 2026 at about 114,000 per month, much stronger than the 10,000 average last year. That’s much faster than the rate at which people have been coming into the labor market because the Trump administration has squeezed net immigration to near zero.
May 27, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The bad news is that food inflation is climbing. The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture food price outlook, published last Friday, projected a 3.2% advance in grocery prices this year. Experts such ass Ricky Volpe, an agribusiness professor at California Polytechnic State University who previously worked at the Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, expect mire like 4% to 4.5%. “Food is going to become less affordable, and consumers should be prepared for it,” Volpe told Bloomberg. The really bad news is that the Federal Reserve’s standard inflation fighting tool–an increase in interest rates to slow the overall economy–is likely to be ineffective since the increase in prices is being driven by supply-side problems that include bad weather, tariffs, and a shrinking cattle herd. Beef prices rose to a record in April thanks to the smallest cattle herd in 75 years.In April, food prices rose by the most in nearly four years.
May 23, 2026 | Daily JAM |
On Thursday the numbers for the Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) are likely to continue the recent trend of bad inflation news.
The headline PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is rapidly approaching 4% as a war-driven spike in energy costs generates unease that price pressures will broaden. Economists expect data on Thursday to show that headline PCE jumped 3.8% in April from a year ago. That would put inflation a full percentage point higher than it was in February before the Iran war, marking the biggest two-month acceleration since late 2021. The core PCE, which strips out more volatile energy and food prices likely picked up in April to the fastest pace since late 2023. Projections say core PCE is expected at 3.0% to 3.2%.
