April 9, 2026 | Daily JAM |
The PCE inflation numbers always lag–they run a month behind the CPI inflation report. And the Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report is even more backward looking than usual. The numbers reported today are for February–efore the beginning oof the Iran war.
But nonetheless the Federal Reserve preferred inflation index didn’t have good news for a central bank trying to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate. The February 2026 headline PCE Price Index, released on April 9, 2026. showed inflation running at a 2.8% year over year rate. The latest core PCE numbers–which exclude energy and food prices because they are thought to be more volatile, showed core PCE inflation at a 3% rate in February. That was down very slightly from a 3.1% annual rate in January. Core PCE has been stuck around 3% for three months now. On a 3-month annualized basis, core inflation is now 3.7%, solidly above the Fed’s 2% goal.
April 1, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Jet fuel prices in the United States have more than doubled in a matter of weeks as the Iran war squeeze supply. Prices had jumped from about $2.17 to $4.57 per gallon by March 27. Even worse airlines warn supplies of fuel could run out within weeks, raising the risk of higher airfares and flight cancellations.
March 31, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s insistence that the effects of the Iran war would be minor and transitory apparently so got to ECB president Christine Lagarde that she called him out in front of an audience of high-level Group of Seven officials.
March 28, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Wonder why it’s so hard to put a number on the inflationary impact of the Iran war? Toray Iustries is a good case study. Japanese materials maker Toray Industries has decided to introduce a global surcharge on resins, carbon fibers and other products, aiming to pass on price fluctuations in raw materials due to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The extra charge will apply to materials used in Boeing aircraft and other products. In 2023 Toray Industries had about 13.5% of the global carbon fiber market.
March 26, 2026 | Daily JAM |
The war in Iran will lead to a surge in inflation this year, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushes up prices for oil, gas and other commodities, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Thursday.
March 18, 2026 | Daily JAM |
As expected, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee left its benchmark short-term interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t news from its Dot Plot projections for future GDP growth inflation, and interest rates.
March 18, 2026 | Daily JAM |
While investors waited to hear this afternoon from the Federal Reserve what the central bank intends to do about inflation and interest rates, this morning we got bad inflation news from the February PPI (Producer Price Index) report. The PPI for final demand, which measures prices at the wholesale level, rose 0.7% month‑on‑month in February, after a 0.5% increase in January and 0.4% in December.On a 12‑month basis, final‑demand PPI is up 3.4% year‑on‑year, the fastest pace of increase since February 2025. Core PPI (final demand less food, energy, and trade services) rose 0.5% on the month and is now up 3.5% year‑on‑year, marking the tenth consecutive monthly increase in the annual rate.
March 16, 2026 | Daily JAM |
The New York Times and Axios are reporting that the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis made a methodological change that resulted in lower PCE inflation for January. Without any pubic notice. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. The Bureau of Economic Analysis–the agency inside the Commerce Department that creates key economic data, including GDP and the Fed’s go-to PCE inflation gauge–substituted a new source for legal services prices without disclosing that it was doing so ahead of time.
Typically–a change like this would come after the BEA notified the public. Not this time. The change comes at a time when economists and Wall Street are worried about the accuracy of economic data produced by agencies under the Trump administration.
March 15, 2026 | Daily JAM |
No secret. The big financial event of the week is the Wednesday, March 18, meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. But the big news out of that meeting will likely NOT be a decision on interest rates themselves. As of Friday, the CME FedWatch Tool was putting the odds of the Fed keeping benchmark short term rates at the current 3.50% to 3.75% range near 100% at 99.2%. Now granted that the FedWatch tool only tells us what the FedFunds futures market thinks the Fed will do, but it would be extraordinary if the Fed let the financial markets get this call so wrong. that would produce exactly the kind of market volatility that the Fed tries to prevent. Recent weeks would have seen Fed officials trying to talk the markets out of that belief. That talk has been notably absent. The news out of that meeting WILL BE the quarterly revisions to the Fed’s dot Plot projections of future interest rates, inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth.
March 13, 2026 | Daily JAM |
The U.S. economy was in worse shape in the weeks before the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran than earlier government estimates had suggested, according to two closely watched economic benchmarks released Friday. Growth was slower than initially reported. And inflation was higher. If you’re worried about stagflation, here’s your data.
March 11, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
U.S. inflation stayed subdued in February, the month leading up to the war in Iran. Which makes the data basically meaningless. February’s report, which was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, covers the period up until the United States and Israel first struck Iran on the final day of the month. The Consumer Price Index report showed that headline inflation steadied at a 2.4% annual rate in February, matching January’s annual rate of increase. On a monthly basis, prices ticked up 0.3%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices registered a 2.5% year-over-year increase. The month to month increase was 0.2%
March 10, 2026 | Daily JAM |
the problem is that pesky phrase “if sustained.” Trouble is no one knows how long fighting will go on, or what exactly constitutes sustained,” nor how long the effects, resulting from damage to energy infrastructures, might last.
