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The tide rises–Treasury yields climb again and so do inflation plays

February 22, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing | 0 comments

As of the close in New York today, February 22, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had climbed another 3 basis points to 1.37%. Commodities that can act as inflation hedges were up as well. Copper showed no signs of ending its climb, rising 4.17% today to $8909 a ton on the London Metal Exchange today

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week head expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week head expect…

February 21, 2021 | Daily JAM | 0 comments

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday–and do his best not to make any news.

10-year Treasuries fall along with stocks today

10-year Treasuries fall along with stocks today

February 18, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term | 4 comments

10-year Treasury yield hits 1.30% even as stocks drop with rates hitting peak from before the March 2020 pandemic panic

Special Report: Your Investing Guide for the Next Six Dangerous Stock Market Months (Complete with 14 picks)

Special Report: Your Investing Guide for the Next Six Dangerous Stock Market Months (Complete with 14 picks)

September 29, 2020 | Daily JAM, KCAC, Mid Term, Special Reports, Volatility | 8 comments

Yikes. Does this market have enough volatility for you? And I think that volatility will only get worse over the next two to six months, I can't remember a market with so much potential to move up or down in big relatively short-term volatility as this one. Just as...
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week head expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

September 13, 2020 | Daily JAM | 6 comments

...nothing of consequence from the Federal Reserve when it ends its September meeting on Wednesday, September 16. At least that's the market consensus right now. Which means that if the Fed makes adds a statement on inflation, or interest rates, or about the economy,...
Powell announces anticipated shift in policy framework at the Fed yesterday: 0% for longer

Powell announces anticipated shift in policy framework at the Fed yesterday: 0% for longer

August 27, 2020 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed | 11 comments

As anticipated in Wednesday's rally--the Standard & Poor's 500 climbed 1.02% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.73%--Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday announced that going forward the Fed would let inflation rise to above its current target of 2% from...
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week head expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

August 24, 2020 | Daily JAM, Saturday Night Quarterback | 3 comments

... Wall Street to be hanging on the words of a Thursday, August 27 speech. Not the one that night where Donald Trump accepts the Republican Party nomination for President. That's unlikely to offer any surprises to the stock market. Instead the key speech that day is...
Officially, U.S. government debt passes total U.S. GDP

Officially, U.S. government debt passes total U.S. GDP

August 21, 2020 | Daily JAM | 33 comments

In January, the Congressional Budget Office forecast that total U.S. government debt would hit 100% of GDP around 2030. At that point U.S. debt stood at about $17 trillion or roughly 80% of GDP. So much for that forecast. As of the end of June, U.S. government debt...
Deflation or a spike in inflation in 2020-21: A tale of two fatter-than-expected tails

Deflation or a spike in inflation in 2020-21: A tale of two fatter-than-expected tails

May 7, 2020 | Daily JAM, Long Term | 4 comments

The financial market consensus on inflation is pretty obvious: For 2020 and 2021, the U.S. economy will see modest inflation, maybe 1.5% to 1.75%. That would be significantly below the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% or so. And that gap would keep the Fed...
Inflation continues to fall; deflation a possibility

Inflation continues to fall; deflation a possibility

May 5, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing | 4 comments

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said annualized inflation across the group of 37 advanced economies slowed to 1.7% in March from 2.3% in February. That's the biggest deceleration since the 2008 global financial crisis. Energy prices fell by...
Gold in ETFs nears record; what’s next for the yellow metal?

Gold in ETFs nears record; what’s next for the yellow metal?

January 29, 2020 | AG, Daily JAM, GLD, GOLD, Perfect Five-ETFs, Volatility | 1 comment

Gold held by ETFs (exchange-traded funds) hit the highest level in seven years on Tuesday as investors and traders piled into the traditional hedge against uncertainty and stock market volatility. Worldwide gold holdings in ETFs rose to 2,561.2 tons as of Tuesday, the...
There’s no inflation, the Federal Reserve says. You feel that’s wrong–and know what? You’re actually right

There’s no inflation, the Federal Reserve says. You feel that’s wrong–and know what? You’re actually right

January 14, 2020 | Daily JAM | 6 comments

Two days after the last Federal Reserve meeting on December 11--where they told us again that inflation continues to fall below the Fed's 2% threshold and that, therefore, there's no inflation to worry about--I walked into my favorite New York bagel shop, Absolute...
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