January 28, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Today, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to hold the benchmark federal funds short-term rate in a range of 3.5%-3.75%. Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a quarter-point reduction.
In a post-meeting statement, Fed officials said “job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization.” Officials dropped language pointing to increased downside risks to employment that had appeared in the three previous statements.
The upgraded assessment of the labor market likely signals that the Fed will remain on hold at the March and April meetings. The CME FedWatch Tool put the odds of no change at the March 18 meeting at 86.5% and the odds of no change at the April 29 meeting at 74%.
January 27, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Traders in the $9.5 trillion-per-day currency markets are betting on further losses in the dollar. Today, January 27, the dollar sank, deepening a four-day selloff that’s sent it to the lowest since early 2022, after President Donald Trump indicated he’s comfortable with those declines. “No, I think it’s great,” Trump told reporters in Iowa on Tuesday when asked if he was worried about the currency’s drop. “I think the value of the dollar–look at the business we’re doing. The dollar’s doing great.” The president’s statements were seen as giving a green-light to traders to sell the dollar.
July 16, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
We started the day with a White House official saying that President Donald Trump was likely to seek the ouster of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell soon. Treasury two-year yields, the maturity most sensitive to Fed moves, slid six basis points to 3.88%. The dollar halted a four-day advance. And then President Trump said he has no plans to fire the central bank chief and was only discussing it in “concept.” The S&P 500 bounced as Trump said he is “not planning on doing anything” to remove Powell.
News reports earlier in the day had Trump circulaing a draft letter seeking Powell’s ouster among Republican members of Congress. Trump and his allies have lambasted the Fed chair over the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady and have pointed to what they say are huge cost overruns in the central bank’s renovations of its Washington headquarters as a reason Trump could remove Powell for cause. (Jerome Powell’s term as Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve expires in May 2026. He may continue to serve as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until January 2028.) The yield on the 2-year Treasury closed at 3.89%. No one knows what Trump’s intentions are.
May 14, 2025 | Daily JAM, FXY, Videos |
Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is: Dollar Down, Yen and Euro Up. Recently, the market has bounced back from the dip after April’s tariff announcements, but there’s something people might be overlooking: if the Fed cuts rates due to an economic slowdown, the dollar will likely weaken. That’s not all bad—it could mean cheaper U.S. exports and lower gas prices globally (tariffs permitting). But it’s surprising how few investors are factoring this in. A while back, I added the Invesco Japan Yen Currency Shares Trust (ETF) to my volatility portfolio, and it’s already up about 10% year-to-date as the yen strengthens against the dollar. Similarly, the Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE) has gained 9.38% this year. (All those performance figures are from before the China tariff deal. Since then the dolor was up on Monday then down on news that the U.S. had signaled to South Korea that it would like a weaker dollar.) Living in Venice, I’ve noticed the euro’s strength firsthand—great for investments, not so great for my daily espresso budget! If you’re looking for a relatively safe play in uncertain times, shifting some dollar-denominated assets into yen or euro ETFs could give you a solid 3-6% return while the dollar softens. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was (before Monday) already down nearly 8%, so diversifying could be a smart move.
May 5, 2025 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks |
Now you need to own more besides U.S. stocks. But what? With my answer, here’s my Special Report: 10 Picks from the Rest of the World
March 30, 2025 | Daily JAM, FXY, Perfect Five-ETFs, Short Term, UUP |
On Monday, March 31, I will sell the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index BullishFund ETF (UUP) out of the Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio and replace it with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY). I will leave the portfolio weighting at 25%. The yen ETF is up 5.32% in the last three months as of the close on March 28. It charges a 0.40% expense ratio.
January 15, 2025 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs, UUP |
Last week I sold my commodities ETF, the VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO) out of my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio.
Today I’m replacing it with the Invesco DB U.S.Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP), UP 0.82% in 2025 as of January 14, 2025. The ETF gained 13.48% in 2024.
December 17, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is U.S. Dollar. The dollar has been on a good run and is up 7% in the last three months, 2% in the last month. I expect this to continue with higher tariffs, and a Fed that will remain steady while other currencies are seeing more volatility. To get in on this you can buy an ETF like Invesco DB US Dollar Index (UUP), currently up 10.19% YTD with a 75 basis point expense ratio. Another option would be the WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU), up about 11% YTD with a 50 basis point expense ratio. WisdomTree buys Treasuries while Invesco uses futures but both are similarly sized ETFs and good ways to play the US dollar.
November 26, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Yesterday in social media posts President-elect Donald Trump said that he would impose tariffs on his first day back in office, targeting the United States’ three largest trading partners, of 25% on all goods from Canada and Mexico until drugs and migrants stopped coming over the borders, and an additional 10% tariff on all products from China, saying that the country was shipping illegal drugs to the United States. (The Biden Administration had already imposed its own higher tariffs on China and, in additional, it had kept tariffs on China from the first Trump Administration in effect.)
September 30, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks, TSLA, TSM |
I don’t know which candidate will win the election. Right now the polls are within the margin of error on the national level–and even tighter in the seven battleground states that will likely decide the electionm. But I do know the results on November 5 will move stocks. Some right off the bat even before the results are certified. Ans more significantly as a new administration clarifies its policy views and takes office.The results will move the stock market in general
And they will move individual stocks and sectors in particular.
September 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Volatility |
I think of Nvidia (NVDA) as this market’s warning indicator; it’s the canary in a coal mine; the bird that will die first if dangerous gases start to build up. So, yes, it’s important that Nvidia shares plunged from $134.91 on July 10 to $98.91 on August 7. And again from $128.83 on August 28 to $102.83 on September 6. But the shares are up again–15.83% last week–to $116.78 This canary seems to be sending a rather more complicated message than “Look I’m dead! See my feet in the air?” What’s the message, though?
July 23, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On Monday, July 22, the People’s Bank of China lowered its benchmark lending rates and an important short-term policy rate.
The precise timing was a surprise although leaders at the recently concluded third plenum had flagged continuing problems in the real estate sector and soft consumer demand. This is a hugely important change in policy for the People’s Bank, which had recently shied away from cutting rates in an effort to prevent further erosion in the yuan versus the U.S. dollar, and to lower inflation caused by higher prices for imports. The move, I think, signals the hugh level of anxiety in the Beijing leadership at the economy’s refusal to respond to previous stimulus moves.
