Today, October 1, I’ve gone back through this Special Report to update any parts of my calendar in light of what we’ve learned about the economy, about Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and about the global economy in the last few weeks. This update includes my take on the August jobs report and the September 21 meeting of the Fed. (It’s a complete revision of the original so changes are in the body of the original text.) It is different this time. And it’s likely to “be different this time” for the next five years or so. And you need an investment strategy for that period.
My one-hundred-and-eighty-ninth YouTube video: “From a Bear Market to a Global Financial Crisis” went up today. To me, it increasingly looks like we’re going from a bear market to a global financial crisis. The signs of an upcoming global financial crisis are there: volatility in the currency markets, the decline in nearly every currency against the dollar, the World Bank lowering its estimates of economic growth around the world, and global inflation due to food and energy. A good way to track the “progress” toward a global financial crisis0 is to look at emerging markets. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) both saw accelerated declines starting around September 12, and South Korea has been down since mid-August. Many key emerging markets rely on in-flows of foreign capital to balance their accounts but the flow of that money has slowed, as investors are risking less internationally and keeping their funds closer to home. Right now, we’re seeing a global “Whac-a-Mole”, where individual countries pop up as problems. But if more financial individual crises pop up simultaneously and at a more rapid pace, we’ll have a global financial crisis on our hands. Oh, goody. Something more to worry about.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 25 basis points to 3.75% today, September 28. The yield on the very policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury dropped to 4.08% from 4.28% yesterday. And stocks climbed. At the close in New York, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 1.97% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher by 1.88%. The NASDAQ Composite had climbed 2.05% and the NASDAQ 100 had gained 1.97%. The small-cap Russell 2000 was ahead by 3.17%. And what was the cause of this move upward after so many days of marching in the other direction?
Today, September 5, I’ve gone back through this Special Report to update any parts of my calendar in light of what we’ve learned about the economy, about Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and about the global economy in the last few weeks. This update includes my take on the August jobs report and on recent Fed-speak from the Jackson Hole conference and after. It is different this time. And it’s likely to “be different this time” for the next five years or so. And you need an investment strategy for that period.
China’s factory output and consumer spending both slowed in July, new numbers released today by the National Bureau of Statistics showed. Industrial production rose 3.8% from a year ago. That’s lower than June’s 3.9% year-over-year rate and below economists’ forecast of a 4.3% increase. Retail sales growth slowed to 2.7% in July, lower than economists’ projection of 4.9%.
Trick or trend: Will the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank raise rates enough this week to slow the dollar? Nah!
The dollar is likely to get another boost from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank this week. On Thursday, the European Central Bank is likely to report its first interest-rate increase in more than a decade. But the increase is likely to be just 25 basis points. That will be a stark reminder of how far behind the Federal Reserve, which raised interest rates 75 basis points in June and is expected to increase rates by another 75 basis points at its July 27 meeting. On Thursday the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its benchmark interest rates at its current low, low, low level.
My one-hundred-and-fifty-fourth YouTube video “Strong Dollar Hits Stocks–3 Things to Do” went up today. The biggest factor driving falling prices in commodities (ahem, oil) is the rising strength of the dollar. Believe it or not, the US economy is faring better than other trading partners. That combined with rising interest rates makes for a stronger dollar. In this video, I provide three picks to address this issue as I continue to expect rate hikes from the Fed.
The complete Part 3 (including the “out years” through 2027) of my Special Report: Your Best Investment Strategy for the Next 5 Years
And there I thought the hard part was laying out my thoughts on the trends in the market over the next five years. Turns out that outlining investment specifics is even harder. So this is just the first 12 months of picks and positioning for the next five years.
(September 5 update) Special Report: Your Best Investment Strategy for the Next 5 Years: Part 1 (Why it’s different this time), Part 2 (An investment calendar), and the complete Part 3 (strategies and picks through 2027)
It is different this time: Part 1 and Part 2 of my Special Report: Your Best Investment Strategy for the Next 5 Years. And finally the full Part 3 with strategies and picks for the 5-year period including the “out” years. It’s likely to “be different this time” for the next five years or so. And you need an investment strategy for that period.
Even if mere mortals don’t know whether a second term as Fed chair for Jerome Powell would accelerate the schedule for interest rate increases, both the yen/dollar market and bank stocks know.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The thirty-second YouTube video “OPEC and the threat to green energy stocks” went up today.