Watch my YouTube video on why this very stretched market will hang in for another six months
The fifth YouTube video on why this very stretched market will hang in for another six months went up today.
Lots of trading action but no trend so far from Santa Claus
Today, Wednesday December 30, is pretty much the reverse image of yesterday’s stock market action. Traders are having fun–and making money, I’d hope–in the day to day action but I don’t see a trend in this market that might extend into 2021. So, for example, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.13% today at the close in New York after falling 0.22% yesterday
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Monday) says, For the two weeks ahead expect Ho, Ho, Huh! Is this the shape of this year’s Santa Claus rally to come?
The major indexes aren’t showing much of a move today even on the news that a new coronavirus stimulus/relief bill is like to pass today (along with the massive fiscal 2021 spending bill for the rest of the government.) I think a good part of that lack of reaction comes since the market has been assuming a stimulus bill would pass for days if not weeks and the actual bill is priced in to a great degree. That isn’t to say that there weren’t big moves to the upside of the sort that I expect could be the order of the day during the low volume trading days around the Christmas and New Year’s holidays. In many years bulls try to use the low trading volumes during these days to generate moves to the upside.
Initial claims for unemployment climb again
The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment in regular state unemployment programs climbed by 30,000 in the week ended November 21, the Labor Department reported today, November 25. For the week initial claims in state programs rose to a seasonally adjusted 778,000. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected 730,000 new claims for the week. This is the second straight week for an increase in new claims for unemployment and adds to other data showing the U.S. economy is slowing under the impact of a new surge in coronavirus infections and a rising number of restrictions on economic activity as states attempt to slow the spread of the virus.
This market is way, way too complacent
The VIX, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, gained 11% today to close at 26.03. But the index, which measures how much investors and traders are wiling to pay in the options market to hedge risk on the Standard & Poor's 500 index of stocks looking out over the...
Passive investing strategies look like they raise risk of big but infrequent spikes in volatility
Readers of JubakAM.Com in comments to a number of my posts recently have been kicking around the question of whether the huge increase in passive investing strategies has changed volatility in the stock market. Passive investment strategies such as indexing now make...
Stocks rally today–but I’d feel better if volume was higher and the same old big techs weren’t leading the day
Today looks like a strong rally but I've got my doubts. At the close the Standard & Poor's 500 was up 1.60%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 1.34%. The technology laden NASDAQ Composite was higher by 2.26%. The NASDAQ 100, dominated by the technology...
Stocks lose much of early enthusiasm but still finish in the green
Stocks moved up modestly this morning (modest considering the damage down in the last few days) with the Standard & Poor's 500 up 0.99% at 1 p.m. New York time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead 0.94%, and the NASDAQ Composite gaining 1.16%. The move seems to...
Dow plunges 800 points; S&P 500 down 4.25% at its low for the day–but what happened today?
I love this headline today on Yahoo Finance: "Stocks post worst day since June." Since June!! What else were you expecting in a rally that has become completely unmoored from any fundamentals in the real world. Remember that when some talking head ties to convince you...
Apple’s split bails out the NASDAQ today
Shares of Apple (AAPL) split 4-1 today, helping the stock to a 3.39% gain on the day. If not for Apple (with a little aid from Amazon (AMZN), up 1.45% at the close), the last day of August might have looked a bit ugly. Even with the help from Apple and Amazon, the...
Trick or Trend: Signs of nerves but nobody wants to leave the party?
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Something...
Market passes baton back to Fed’s Powell Put for today’s rally
On Monday the Standard & Poor's 500 and the NASDAQ Composite hit new all-time highs on what I'm calling the Vaccine Put, the hope that we'll see the announcement of an approved coronavirus vaccine by early in 2021 or maybe even the end of 2020 or perhaps before...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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