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Posts Tagged ‘Treasuries’

China retaliates; Trump promises his retaliation to their retaliation this afternoon

Xi Jinping and Donald Trump upstaged Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell this morning. Powell's Jackson Hole speech this morning was supposed to be the day's big market event. (More on this speech in a later post.) But this morning China announced that it would retaliate to the last round of additional 10% tariffs on $300 […]

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Tomorrow’s opening speech by Powell at Jackson Hole central bank gabfest gets more and more interesting

The financial markets aren't backing off. They're pricing in high odds of another 65 basis points to 75 basis points in interest rate cuts by the end of 2019. That means a 25 or 50 basis point cut at the September 18 meeting followed by another 25 to 50 basis point cut at the December […]

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Market goes to pessimism on trivial Pompeo comments–tells ya something, though

It didn't take much to end the optimism of the past few days and turn the market at least mildly pessimistic today. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told CNBC this morning that Huawei Technologies isn't the only Chinese company that poses security risks to the United States. Well, duh! Not so far back the […]

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Trick or Trend: U.S. again considers issuing 100-year Treasuries

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. The last time (back in 2017) the Treasury Department asked the market for a show […]

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A fine volatility this is–just kind of strange

This post should be song to the tune of "A Fine Romance." (It helps if you can dance like Fred Astaire. Or sing like Ella.) "A fine romance, with no kisses A fine romance, my friend, this is We should be like a couple of hot tomatoes But you're as cold as yesterday's mashed potatoes […]

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A rally in tech shares disguises return to risk off trading

Shares of Apple (AAPL) climbed 0.21% to lead the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) higher by 0.40% as of 2 p.m. trading in New York. That helped disguise what is otherwise a return to the risk off trading of Monday after Tuesday's rally--although with smaller declines than on Monday. The Standard & Poor's 500 […]

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Portfolio strategies for a changing market: What went up today when everything went down

For the last few weeks I've been working to shift gears in my online portfolios in anticipation of a tougher market after the Federal Reserve meeting (and a likely additional interest rate cut) on September 18. I've added Treasury ETFs--the Vanguard Intermediate-term Treasury ETF (VGIT) and the Vanguard Short-term Treasury ETF (VGSH)--because I think the […]

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Trump’s new round of China tariffs freaks out financial–especially bond–markets

So much for any hopes that the resumption of U.S-China trade talks would put an end to the tariff war in anything like the near term. The new round of talks only began on Wednesday, was adjourned after a day, and was scheduled to resume in Washington in September. This morning, though, President Donald Trump […]

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Treasury says debt sales to remain at record levels for rest of 2019

Can you connect the dots? No one in Washington seems to be willing to make the effort. On a day when the Federal Reserve said it would cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points and end its efforts to sell some of the bonds in its own portfolio two months ahead of schedule--both […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

... an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its July 31 meeting. That market sure expects the Fed to reduce rates. The CME FedWatch Tool placed the odds of an interest rate cut at 100% on Friday. That means that the market has priced in a drop in interest rates. And that unless […]

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