April 1st, 2019, 12:32 PM
Remember last week when bond prices soared and yields plunged as everybody yelled "Recession" and fled to safety? Well, this week has started with a reversal of that sentiment on: A tick higher in manufacturing prospects in China. The official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for March increased to 50.5 from 49.2 in February. The Caixin Manufacturing […]
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March 28th, 2019, 4:58 PM
It's all my fault. I go away for two days to tour colleges with my daughter, and global bond markets soar as everybody in the world decides to seek safety simultaneously. Today's pause has very little to do with my return to my desk. The rise in bond prices has been so rapid that bond […]
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February 26th, 2019, 11:13 PM
The legislation that suspended the debt ceiling limit on borrowing by the federal government expires on March 2. The likelihood that Congress will put aside its other conflicts and extend that suspension or pass a clean increase in the debt ceiling is just about nil. But--and here's the good news--the government will run out of […]
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February 11th, 2019, 4:34 PM
Investors and traders looking to hedge against the risk that U.S. stocks will take a tumble (or worse) are rushing to buy bonds. Let week another $490 million flowed in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.) That brought the inflow for 2019 to date as of February 8 to a record $2.3 billion. […]
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January 14th, 2019, 1:03 PM
Overnight, China reported as larger than expected December trade surplus ($57.06 billion against an expected $51.53 billion) but a December year over year 7.6% drop in imports that argued for a slowdown in China's domestic economy. Economists had expected a 5% increase in imports. Exports fell 4.4% year over year against expectations for a 3% […]
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December 10th, 2018, 1:10 PM
I dare you to find something global financial markets aren't worried about. And, moreover, many of the worries are re-enforcing each other today. So, for example, we've got U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, saying on Sunday TV the the 90 day trade truce is a hard deadline. No deals in 90 days and the […]
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November 26th, 2018, 4:57 PM
In my daily trawling through the market I come upon lots of tidbits of knowledge that I think are important to investors but that don't justify a full post. I've decided to start compiling these notes here each day in a kind of running mini blog that I'm calling Notes You Need. I launched this new […]
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November 12th, 2018, 4:40 PM
The U.S. Dollar Spot Index (DXY) is up again today, climbing 0.66% to 97.053. Since the index that tracks the dollar against six other major trading currencies bottomed for 2018 back on February 15, the dollar has gained 8.72%. The bulk of those gains are even more recent with the dollar up 7.76% against the […]
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