Job market looked solid in December–or did it?

Job market looked solid in December–or did it?

The U.S. economy added 216,000 jobs in December, up from 173,000 the previous month. That was a bg surprise to Wall Street. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected had added 175,000 jobs . The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% for the month from November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to tick higher to 3.8%. The the BLS revised previous reports of job gain donward for December and November. Looking solely at these headline numbers, you’d conclude that the labor market is running hotter than expected/hoped by investors and that this report lowered the odds that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting interest rates as early at its March 20 meeting. And that fears that the Fed would delay interest rate cuts would hurt stocks. That isn’t exactly what happened today

Huge surge in ADP jobs for June likely means a big surprise on full June jobs report tomorrow

Huge surge in ADP jobs for June likely means a big surprise on full June jobs report tomorrow

Earlier this week economists were projecting the official government jobs report due on Friday, that is tomorrow, would show that the U.S. economy added just 200,000 jobs in June. This morning, however, the ADP Research Institute’s survey of private employers showed the economy added 497,000 jobs in June. That’s more than twice the 220,000 gain that economists had projected for this report. And way above the 267,000 jobs reported by this survey in May.

Job market looked solid in December–or did it?

New claims for unemployment rise: jobs market may finally be softening

Initial jobless claims rose by 28,000 to 261,000 in the week ended June 3, which included the Memorial Day holiday, according to the Labor Department, Thursday, June 8. The increase was the biggest since July 2021 and exceeded all forecasts in Bloomberg’s survey of economists. The total number of new applications was the highest since October 2021, suggesting mounting layoff announcements may be starting to translate into job cuts.

Job market looked solid in December–or did it?

So why did stocks pop on the huge surprise in May jobs report?

The U.S. economy added a monster 339,000 jobs in May. Economists had been looking for 180,000 to 190,000 jobs. On the news, stocks rallied. Strongly. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.45%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day 2.12% higher. The NASDAQ Composite added 1.07% and the NASDAQ 100 finished up 0.73%. The small-cap Russell 2000 moved higher by 3.56%. So why did stocks move up?

The problem with Goldilocks (if you’re an investor or trader)

The problem with Goldilocks (if you’re an investor or trader)

The Producer Price Index rose 0.25% in April from March and at a 2.3% rate year-over-year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, May 11. This index measures prices at the wholesale level–changes at that level eventually show up in the prices that consumers pay so they’re an indicator of the direction of future consumer inflation. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected producer prices to rise 0.3% in April on a monthly basis and 2.5% on a yearly basis. In March, producer prices slipped 0.5% on a monthly basis and rose 2.7% on a yearly basis. The annual 2.5% rate is the lowest annual increase in producer inflation in more than two years. So in these numbers, we’ve got clear evidence that inflation is falling. But, also this morning, initial claims for unemployment for the week ending May 6 rose 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 264,000 claims. That was above expectations from economists surveyed by Reuters for 245,000 initial claims for unemployment. The number of workers filing new claims for unemployment hit a 1-1/2-year high.

Job market looked solid in December–or did it?

Huge April jobs number is a big shock to stock market

The U.S. economy added 253,000 jobs in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced today, Friday, May 5. The official unemployment rate dipped by 10 basis points to 3.4%. (The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers who have stopped looking for a job and workers with part-time jobs who would like full-time work, fell to 6.1% in April (before seasonal adjustments) from 6.8% in March.) Economists were looking for the economy to add just 180,000 jobs in the month. The number is a huge surge after a drop from 472,000 jobs added in January to a revised 165,000 in March.

Job market looked solid in December–or did it?

Higher initial claims for unemployment report today suggests smaller jobs gains in tomorrow’s report for April

Initial claims for unemployment rose by the most in six weeks while continuing claims fell in the week ended April 29, the Labor Department reported this morning. Initial unemployment claims rose by 13,000 to 242,000. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were looking for 240,000 initial claims. Continuing claims, which include people who have received unemployment benefits for a week or more and are a good indicator of how hard it is for people to find work after losing their jobs, fell by 38,000 to 1.81 million in the week ended April 22. That marked the biggest drop since July. If you think that a rise in unemployment and a weakening of the labor market is a good thing, as the Federal Reserve does, because it sets the stage for a decline in inflation, then today’s data had its negative aspects too. A separate report out today showed U.S. worker productivity declined in the first quarter by more than forecast and labor costs accelerated. That’s a strong argument for higher inflation.

Another crack in the jobs market

Another crack in the jobs market

Job openings in the United States fell in June to a nine-month low. The number of available positions decreased to 10.7 million in the month from an upwardly revised 11.3 million in May, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, showed Tuesday. The 605,000 decline was the biggest since April 2020. I’m sure this data has caught the Federal Reserve’s eye.