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Posts Tagged ‘Federal Reserve’

Fed keeps interest rates steady; Treasury yields and dollar slip slightly

As expected the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at 1.5% to 1.75% today. The median forecast from Federal Reserve officials pointed to no change in interest rates through 2020. “Our economic outlook remains a favorable one despite global developments and ongoing risks,” Fed chair Jerome Powell aid at a press conference following […]

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Inflation isn’t exactly dead

Wall Street is counting on the Federal Reserve to stay on the sidelines until September and then resume cutting interest rates. Some big money advisors are even counting on the Fed to cut interest rates again before September. Bloomberg ran an interview this morning with a Wall Street strategist looking for a full percentage point […]

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It’s getting to look a lot like end of the year volatility

Remember how back in September a spike in very short term overnight rates in the repo market kicked off volatility across the financial markets until the Federal reserve flooded that market with liquidity? Well, signs are that we could see the kind of spike in volatility again as the end of 2019 approaches. Rates to […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

... a quiet, holiday shortened week on U.S. markets--with the possible exception of China news. The Thanksgiving calendar, which puts the start of the Federal Reserve's quiet season ahead of the December 11 meeting of the bank's Open Market Committee on Saturday November 30, has jammed Fed speeches into a narrow window this week. Fed […]

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Could collapse of U.S.-China trade talks trigger a second Federal Reserve Put?

You're aware, I hope, of the idea that there's an implicit Federal Reserve put that undergirds a stock market trading near record highs. The idea is that Fed chair Jerome Powell, would move to cut interest rates to support stocks if the market looked like it was about to tumble. (Called "The Powell Put" after […]

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Powell refuses chance to say the Fed is on interest rate hold through 2020

Given a chance to say that the Federal Reserve will keep its interest rate policy on hold through 2020, Fed chair Jerome Powell refused to take the bait at this morning's testimony in front of the congressional Joint Economic Committee.  “We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long […]

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Treasury yields climb again–how far will they go?

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury climbed another 10 basis points today to 1.85%. The yield is now up 32 basis points in the last month, although it is still down 135 basis points in a year. That leaves the yield on the 10-year Treasury 40 basis points above its low for 2019. (It […]

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The Fed interest rate pause that …

Distresses? Refreshes? Isn't important? Today, as expected the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate for the third time this year. The Fed lowers its benchmark rate 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. At the same time the Fed signaled that it would pause after this cut, the third reduction in […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

... that news on a U.S.-China trade agreement will still be a big mover from stocks, but it will have to share top-of-mind space this week with the Wednesday, October 30, meeting of the Federal Reserve's interest rate setting body, the Open Market Committee. As far as the financial markets are concerned, there's no suspense […]

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Fed minutes from September show debate on how low interest rates should go

Here's the most important point, to me, from the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September 18 meeting released today. At the meeting the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in 2019. “Several participants suggested that the committee’s post-meeting statement should provide more clarity about when the recalibration of the […]

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