August 6, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
At the last meeting of the Federal reserve Open Market Committee three members of the interest rate setting body voted against the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady. Rose dissenters wanted to raise interest rats to fight inflation still running north of the fed’s target 2% rate. That was a huge degree of disagreement at the Fed. And at the time, Wall Street increased its degree of worry that the new Fed chair faced a tough job to forge a consensus at the central bank. That worry was increased by the power of the dissenters’ message: Raise rates now because we’re worried that inflation expectations are getting ingrained in consumer psychology. Warsh, who has pledged not to forecast future rates, didn’t present an argument for waiting. Wednesday it became four against one.
August 2, 2026 | Daily JAM |
We’re about to see the beginning of an extraordinary two week data drought, just as the Federal Reserve stresses that changes in interest rates will be “data dependent.”
July 25, 2026 | Daily JAM |
I expect lots of excited speculation about whether or not the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when it meets on Wednesday, July 29. In the last week the speculation has moved strongly in the direction of a rate increase. The odds of a 25 basis point increase have climbed to 34.2% on the CME FedWatch Tool as of Friday, July 24, from just 12.8% week ago. That still says a rate increase is less likely than no change from the Fed. But that’s a huge shift in sentiment in the Fed Funds Futures market tracked by the CME FedWatch.
However… The bond market may have already made its decision on higher rates. And rather than leading the bond market, the fed may be just following along with what bond buyers have already decided.
July 19, 2026 | Daily JAM |
We’re used to talking about momentum markets only when stocks are going up. And investors buy more shares because they think yesterday’s gains will be repeated tomorrow. But momentum can work on the downside too when investors think that yesterday’s losses will be repeated tomorrow. And that’’s where I think we are after last week’s selling pushed the chip sector–and especially AI-related chip stocks into a Bear market 20% decline. At some point I expect a shift in sentiment. Investors will say, again, that the selling is a buying opportunity. If memory chip maker Micron Technology was a buy on June 22 as it climbed to an all-time high, isn’t it a bargain at 30% lower? I mean, Come on! the AI revolution isn’t ALL hype, right? But to get that change in sentiment, I think we need a catalyst or two to switch the focus from what might go wrong–a further escalation of the Iran war, fear of an interest rate surprise from a Federal Reserve that suddenly sounds very hawkish on inflation, more AI Bad news from China–to what might go surprisingly right.
July 14, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
American consumers got some relief in June after months of soaring prices. The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.5% in June from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. That represented a cool-down from May, when annual inflation hit 4.2 percent, a three-year high. Prices actually fell 0.4 percent from May to June, the largest outright decline since 2020. BUT… The improving inflation picture was largely the result of tumbling oil prices.
July 3, 2026 | B, Daily JAM, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
On June 17, in his press conference after the Federal Reserve’s meeting, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh said no more forward guidance on interest rate moves. He even, personally, made a point of not voting in the update of the Fed’s Dot Plot projections on interest rtes, inflation, and economic growth. Then on July 1, Warsh appeared on a panel with other central bank leaders at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal. He again declined to pre‑commit on the July rate decision. he also said inflation remains “too high.” But he noted that inflation risks have come down in recent weeks as inflation expectations and some energy‑related pressures eased. The financial markets certainly read these remarks as an indication–not forward guidance, of course–that the Fed would not raise interest rates at its July or September meetings. I think you’re entitled to ask What’s the difference between the old policy of forward guidance and the new policy of announcing forward conclusions based on trends picked out of the data, somehow? (I would note that neither Warsh or anybody else at the Federal Reserve KNOWS how quickly the inflationary pressures created by the Iran war will diminish.) I’ve got two answers to that question.
July 2, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, far below economists’ expectations of 100,000 and down from 129,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate dipped slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings growth for workers registered 3.5 percent on an annual basis in June. Pay raises are not keeping up with prices. Inflation is hovering around 4% on an annual basis after dropping to near 2% in 2024. How you think about this report depends on what part of the data you focus on.
June 17, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to hold its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% in its first gathering with Kevin Warsh in the chair. Warsh vowed to restore price stability following his first policy meeting since taking the helm of the U.S. central bank. “Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” Warsh said in his debut press conference as chairman. Officials “are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability.” Which would seem to signal an intention t raise rates to battle inflation. But maybe not in Warsh-speak.
June 13, 2026 | Daily JAM |
If your love for the dramatic wasn’t satiated by last week’s SpaceX IPO launch, this week will being more thrills with the oh-again, off-again, nobody knows what’s in the agreement Iran war peace deal, and Wednesday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve interest-rate setting body, the Open Market Committee.
June 7, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Goldman Sachs economists no longer expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year due. The bank pushed back its forecast for the Fed’s final two rate cuts to June and December 2027 from previous expectations of December 2026 and March 2027. But Goldman still doesn’t beieve the next move for the Fd is an interest rate increase. Inflation appears “less likely to become self-sustaining,” Goldman chief U..S economist David Mericle said in a note dated Friday.
May 30, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
It’s jobs week. On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its labor market report for May. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the unemployment rate will hold steady at 4.3% and that the economy generated 89,000. That figure would be higher than in recent months and bring the three-month average to the highest level in more than a year. That would be more than enough to support talk on Wall Street of a durable acceleration in hiring. Which would be one more nail in the coffin for the argument that an interest rate cut is needed to spur the economy.
May 20, 2026 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
A majority of Federal Reserve officials at the Federal Reserve’’s April 29 meeting warned that the central bank would likely need to consider raising interest rates if inflation continued to run persistently above their 2% target.
