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Posts Tagged ‘Federal Reserve’

Special Report: 10 Best Picks for the Last Six Months of 2019

This isn't  time for investing as usual. As whacky as the first half of 2019 has been--the Federal Reserve embraces interest rate cuts, the U.S. and China descend further into a trade war, the U.S. economy turns in better than 3% growth but fears for a slowdown in global growth in 2019 and for a U.S. recession in 2020 […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

... all attention to be on what the Federal Reserve says on Wednesday, June 19, after the meeting of its rate-setting Open Market Committee. Nobody on Wall Street expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the June meeting--expectations are high for a July 31 reduction of 25 basis points however. (Odds of a […]

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Trick or trend: 2, maybe 3, real trends in a market of noise

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. I think there are only two, maybe three real trends in the current market. The […]

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Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

...deafening quiet from the Federal Reserve. With the Federal Reserve scheduled to meet on June 18 and June 19, the Fed has entered its traditional pre-meeting quiet period as of today, June 8. The Fed's schedule shows not a single speech or event scheduled until after the meeting. That means the market is on its […]

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May jobs disappoint, but stocks climb on interest rate cut hopes

The U.S. economy added just 75,000 jobs in May. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the addition of 175,000 jobs. Statisticians at the Labor Department also revised April job gains down to 224,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, a 49-year low. (The full U6 unemployment rate, which counts discouraged workers who have stopped […]

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U.S. markets counting on visit from Goldilocks tomorrow

Tomorrow, Friday, June 7, brings the May jobs report. Right now economists surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for the economy to add a robust 175,000 jobs with unemployment holding steady at 3.6% (as 49-year low) and average hourly wages growing at a very positive 3.2% annual rate. The prospect of those numbers tomorrow is enough […]

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Stocks gallup higher as Fed chair affirms Powell Put

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said today that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the U.S.economy chugging higher--including a near-term cut in interest rates if needed to offset the negative effects of President Donald Trump's trade and tariff wars. I see this as a very strong affirmation of the Powell Put, the […]

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Federal Reserve minutes say, No interest rate move “for some time”

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's April 30-May 1 meeting showed officials at the U.S. central bank inclined toward patience and to keeping the current wait-and-see policy in place "for some time." Adding to the dovish tone of the minutes, many Fed members agreed with Fed chair Jerome Powell's view that the recent dip in inflation […]

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The market is dangerously dependent on the Powell Put from the Fed

Right now if the market gets bad news on the economy it goes up. Today, May 15, for example, the S&P 500 closed up 0.78% even though both U.S. and Chinese retail sales disappointed for April. Right now if the market gets bad news on oil supplies, it goes up, as it did yesterday and […]

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Economy added surprisingly strong 263,000 jobs in April; wage gains, labor participation are red flags

The U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in April. (The March jobs number was revised downward.) The gains for April exceeded all estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The official unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. In March the Federal Reserve had forecast that unemployment would falll to 3.7% by the end of 2019. There were a […]

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