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Look ahead to a volatile 9 months: Time to chew gum, walk, rub your belly, and pat your head at the same time

Look ahead to a volatile 9 months: Time to chew gum, walk, rub your belly, and pat your head at the same time

November 3, 2020 | Daily JAM | 12 comments

As of today, November 3 at 12:30 p.m., I don't know who will win the Presidential election. I don't know if the rally in the stock market today, with the Standard & Poor's 500 up 2.02% at 12:30 p.m. New York time, is a vote for some specific outcome, or (more...
Passive investing strategies look like they raise risk of big but infrequent spikes in volatility

Passive investing strategies look like they raise risk of big but infrequent spikes in volatility

October 16, 2020 | Daily JAM | 4 comments

Readers of JubakAM.Com in comments to a number of my posts recently have been kicking around the question of whether the huge increase in passive investing strategies has changed volatility in the stock market. Passive investment strategies such as indexing now make...
Special Report: Your Investing Guide for the Next Six Dangerous Stock Market Months (Complete with 14 picks)

Special Report: Your Investing Guide for the Next Six Dangerous Stock Market Months (Complete with 14 picks)

September 29, 2020 | Daily JAM, KCAC, Mid Term, Special Reports, Volatility | 8 comments

Yikes. Does this market have enough volatility for you? And I think that volatility will only get worse over the next two to six months, I can't remember a market with so much potential to move up or down in big relatively short-term volatility as this one. Just as...
Stocks rally today–but I’d feel better if volume was higher and the same old big techs weren’t leading the day

Stocks rally today–but I’d feel better if volume was higher and the same old big techs weren’t leading the day

September 25, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility, You Might Have Missed | 1 comment

Today looks like a strong rally but I've got my doubts. At the close the Standard & Poor's 500 was up 1.60%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead 1.34%. The technology laden NASDAQ Composite was higher by 2.26%. The NASDAQ 100, dominated by the technology...
Small move in S&P 500 disguises continued turmoil in big technology shares

Small move in S&P 500 disguises continued turmoil in big technology shares

September 11, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing | 0 comments

Three stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 were up for every two that were down as the index turned in a day with very little movement--a gain of 0.05% at the close on September 11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was ahead a bit more at 0.48% That lack of...
Short-term leveraged options bets still unwinding this morning taking indexes down further

Short-term leveraged options bets still unwinding this morning taking indexes down further

September 4, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed | 2 comments

At noon New York time today the Standard & Poor's 500 was down 1.92% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 1.63%. The NASDAQ Composite was lower by 2.65%. Despite solid gains in the August jobs report this morning that matched Wall Street expectations. But...
Look ahead to a volatile 9 months: Time to chew gum, walk, rub your belly, and pat your head at the same time

Trick or Trend: Signs of nerves but nobody wants to leave the party?

August 29, 2020 | Daily JAM | 4 comments

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Saturday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Something...
So this is volatility! Don’t beat yourself up if you don’t get each day right

So this is volatility! Don’t beat yourself up if you don’t get each day right

May 1, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility, You Might Have Missed | 13 comments

On Wednesday, I felt really stupid. I don't believe in this rally. I still think we're due for the bear to come roaring back. And I think the bottom in this market is still somewhere ahead. But on Wednesday April 29, I felt completely WRONG. The Standard & Poor's...
Trick or Trend: China’s coronavirus outbreak is the perfect excuse to sell for investors and traders who were sitting on the fence

Trick or Trend: China’s coronavirus outbreak is the perfect excuse to sell for investors and traders who were sitting on the fence

January 24, 2020 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend | 4 comments

Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series (actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. I'm not going...
A year of great returns (2019) can lead to a year of stupid investing behavior (2020)–will you fall into the trap?

A year of great returns (2019) can lead to a year of stupid investing behavior (2020)–will you fall into the trap?

January 9, 2020 | Daily JAM, Mid Term | 6 comments

It's obvious when you think about it why a year with great investing returns--like the 33% total return (with dividends) on the Standard & Poor's 500 in 2019--should lead to a year of stupid investing behavior. A year of great returns exerts powerful pressure...
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…

January 5, 2020 | Daily JAM, Saturday Night Quarterback | 4 comments

... the dominos to keep falling from the death of Iran's Major General Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and mastermind of Iran's military terrorism effort, in a U.S. drone strike. I don't see a quick big retaliatory act...
Look ahead to a volatile 9 months: Time to chew gum, walk, rub your belly, and pat your head at the same time

Risk and uncertainty soared on Friday–and not for the reasons you might first think

August 26, 2019 | Daily JAM | 9 comments

The Chinese decision on Friday of last week to retaliate to earlier U.S. tariffs by slapping a 10% duty on $75 billion in U.S. exports to China certainty ratcheted up the financial market and economic uncertainty. They took the current U.S.-China trade war to a new...
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