Please Watch My New YouTube Video:  Fear Is Still on a Holiday

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Fear Is Still on a Holiday

Today I posted my two-hundred-and-nineteenth YouTube video: Fear Is Still on a Holiday Today’s topic: Fear is Still on a Holiday. This is a peculiar market for many reasons. Stocks are sinking, but volatility fear doesn’t seem to be rising. On December 20, for example, the S&P 500 fighting a 5-day losing streak. Havens of safety were getting smaller. Pharmaceuticals and airlines, which have been strong recently, sold off on December 19. Searching for glimpses of green, like Coke (up just .14%) in a sea of red is getting harder and harder. What’s curious though, is the VIX, the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the “Fear Index” remains on the average to low end of its recent and historic range. their recent range. The VIX tracks prices for options and futures on the S&P, so as people, in fear of a downturn, hedge by buying “insurance” against a market drop, the VIX rises. But right now we’re seeing a market that truly stinks–that’s a technical term, I know, but you can Google it–while the VIX remains low, showing little sign of fear. My explanation is that at the end of the year, investors aren’t looking to hedge against a market they still hope will turn around. The VIX is an interesting short-term play here. Buying a Call option with a 60-day out as the market returns to fear, or rationality, in 2023 could be the way to go. I’m going to check on the up-to-the-minute price action and see if the Call option is attractive here. Look to my paid JubakAM.com and my free JubakPicks.Com sites on Friday for a buy or not.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: “Trend of the Week You Can’t Trade Random Volatility”

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: “Trend of the Week You Can’t Trade Random Volatility”

My one-hundred-and-fiftieth YouTube video “Trend of the Week: You Can’t Trade Random Volatility” went up today. I like volatility–much of the time. It’s a source of potential profits. However, when the volatility seems random as it does right now, it’s difficult to trade well, as each choice feels like a roll of the dice. Why was Plug Power (PLUG) up 11% in a day, while Pioneer Natural Resources was down 8% that same day–only to have their situations reverse the next day? It seems that much of this is driven by trader sentiment (It’s been down so isn’t it due to move up?) as opposed to actual market news.

Alcoa Call Options seeing action ahead of July 21 earnings report

Alcoa Call Options seeing action ahead of July 21 earnings report

I’m seeing a lot of traders buying Alcoa (AA) Call Options ahead of the company’s July 21 earnings report. The action seems to be most concentrated on the $70 October 21 Call at $75. The stock closed at $64.10 today, June 6, up 3.53%. I think the Call Buying is a result of the very big spread in estimates for second quarter earnings with the high estimate at $4.01 and the lost at $3.19. The consensus for the quart is at $3.66. That would be a huge gain from the $1.49 reported in the second quarter of 2021.

Watch my new YouTube video: “Trend of the Week Low VIX in a risky market?”

Watch my new YouTube video: “Trend of the Week Low VIX in a risky market?”

This week’s Trend of the Week asks Why, despite all the turmoil in the markets, has the CBOE Volatility Index–also known as the VIX, or the “Fear Index,” remained so low? I think this should signal to us that the market has not currently worried in the near term about long-term problems it knows are coming down the road, like rate hikes and a recession at the end of 2022 or in 2023.. In the VIX’s short-term view, there’s no need to worry. Time to put a call on the VIX?

Trick or Trend: FOMO will produce a very volatile transition market

Trick or Trend: FOMO will produce a very volatile transition market

Here is what I expect: A strong spring and summer rally–powered by FOMO and by gains in Post-Pandemic economic recovery stocks. But that rally will be subject to big plunges because so many investors are poised to sprint for an exit. And all of this, later in 2022 will be followed by an actual Recession market. My worry is that the FOMO rally will make it harder for investors to make the moves they need t make now to prepare for that Recession market. The time to prepare is now nd not when everybody has bid up the price of Recession market favorites. Tricky, no?

Extreme day to day volatility is hiding the stock market’s trends–and 4 ways to put this volatility to use

Extreme day to day volatility is hiding the stock market’s trends–and 4 ways to put this volatility to use

Consternation isn’t an investment strategy. Although I certainly understand that reaction to current stock market moves. The day to day volatility is that extreme. But if we focus on that volatility and on how confusing this market is, I think we’re in danger of overlooking the investable trends (up and down) in this market. So let me try, please remember that this is a work in progress and subject to revision, to tease out some of the longer trends that will drive stock prices in the medium term.

Tomorrow is options expiration day–watch for the downside

Tomorrow is options expiration day–watch for the downside

$2.2 trillion of options are set to expire on Friday. That includes $545 billion on individual stocks, Goldman Sachs estimates. And about $985 billion of S&P 500-linked contracts and $165 billion in options tied to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the world’s largest exchange-traded fund, Bloomberg reports.
During the last year equity indexes have shown a reliable pattern of lurching lower near the expiration Friday

Prelude to my Special Report on a new core portfolio for a new market: 5 investing strategy conclusions if financial market history isn’t a reliable guide right now

Prelude to my Special Report on a new core portfolio for a new market: 5 investing strategy conclusions if financial market history isn’t a reliable guide right now

I want to get these thoughts up on the investing consequences of a period where market history is an unreliable guide to future market behavior before I post my newest Special Report: “A New Core Portfolio for a New Market–10 picks.” The 5 strategy conclusions I’m putting out today certainly feed into my thinking about the nature of the new market. I’ll be working on that that Special Report over the weekend and will post it on Monday, February 14, just in time for Valentine’s Day.