AAPL

Bonds say “Worry” but stocks look at projected earnings and say “What, me worry?”

Bonds say “Worry” but stocks look at projected earnings and say “What, me worry?”

Bond yields keep rising. Premiums for holding risky bonds keep climbing. Bonds below investment grade are trading at deeply distessed prices. The bond market is clearly signalling tough, risky, potentially loss-filled times ahead. And stocks just don’t care The Nasdaq 100 Index hit a fresh record on Friday and is up 22% this year, while the S&P 500 Index is less than 1% from the all-time high it reached in August. Why? Extraodinary projected earnings growth from Big Tech in the quarters ahead.

Starting a 5-part series on Investing in dividend stocks during a time of rising rates

Starting a 5-part series on Investing in dividend stocks during a time of rising rates

Let’s start with some basic numbers about dividends now. And why the numbers don’t mean exactly what they seem. The 2-year Treasury currently yields 4.755. The Standard & Poor’s 500 currently yields 1.45%. That’s way below the long-term, but essentially meaningless, average of 4.20% from 1871 t0 2026. More to the point it’s also below the median of 2.83 from 1960 to 2025, which includes the high-yield 1970s and 1980s, and the 1.8% from 1998 through 2025.
No matter which of these averages you pick the current yield is at the very low end of the distribution. True–but misleading.

Chip stocks move into bear market–what’s next?

Chip stocks move into bear market–what’s next?

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which stacks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has moved into Bear market territory with a drop of more than 20% from its June 22 high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is marginally short of the 29% drop that defines a Bear market. The pain was by no means equally distributed.

Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…

This week brings a huge earnings test for AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META and MSFT. I’m going to sell Microsoft out of my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio on Monday, April 27, ahead of the earnings report. That position is up 319% since I initiated it on June 14., 2018. I am keeping Microsoft in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. That position is up 40% since I initiated it on January 18, 2022.

Apple’s developers’ conference starts tomorrow: AI news could move the stock

Apple delays Siri virtual assistant–again

Mark Gurman reports on Bloomerg that Apple (AAPL) has delayed its long-planned upgrade to the Siri virtual assistant again. Apple has run into snags during testing in recent weeks, potentially pushing back the release of several highly anticipated functions. After planning to include the new capabilities in iOS 26.4–an operating system update slated for March–Apple is now working to spread them out over future versions. That would mean postponing some features until at least iOS 26.5, due in May, and iOS 27, which comes out in September. Apple first announced plans for the revamped Siri in June 2024.

Saturday Night Quarterback says, for the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback says, for the week ahead expect…

I expect more volatility as forth quarter earnings season picks up speed. Next week, despite the short week created by Monday’s Martin Luther King holiday, 157 companies are scheduled to report earnings with highlights that include Netflix (NFLX) on Tuesday; and General Electric (GE),Procter & Gamble (PG), and Intel (INTC) on Thursday.

Apple’s declining presence in China

India has overtaken China to become the top source of smartphones sold in the United States. In the quarter through June, India was the largest manufacturer of smartphones shipped to the United States for the first time, accounting for 44% of the market, according to Canalys data. China accounted for more than 60% of all estimated shipments a year ago. That’s down to just 25% now.