Top 50 Stocks

Bonds say “Worry” but stocks look at projected earnings and say “What, me worry?”

Bonds say “Worry” but stocks look at projected earnings and say “What, me worry?”

Bond yields keep rising. Premiums for holding risky bonds keep climbing. Bonds below investment grade are trading at deeply distessed prices. The bond market is clearly signalling tough, risky, potentially loss-filled times ahead. And stocks just don’t care The Nasdaq 100 Index hit a fresh record on Friday and is up 22% this year, while the S&P 500 Index is less than 1% from the all-time high it reached in August. Why? Extraodinary projected earnings growth from Big Tech in the quarters ahead.

It’s not just Treasuries–how about the rout from AI debt at Oracle?

It’s not just Treasuries–how about the rout from AI debt at Oracle?

On Thursday Oracle’s (ORCL) credit default swaps spiked to record highs. Investors are worried at the size of Oracle’s debt load. And wonder if profits will arrive early enough to meet the debt burden. Oracle isn’t an isolated worry–it’s just the poster child for debt pressure facing AI companies. A big question, one of several, giving investors a reason not to buy stocks in the AI sector despite more reasonable valuations is whether profits from AI revenue growth will materialize before these companies have to pay the rising costs of borrowing to build out AI infrastructure.On Thursday, the cost OF Oracle’s debt reached unprecedented levels. At the same time the company’s borrowing costs surged, with the yield on its 6.7% bonds maturing in 2056 crossing 8% for the first time, according to Zerohedge.

Walmart earnings disappointment, consumer confidence drops–time to walk toward exits on more consumer stocks PEP, BUD

Walmart earnings disappointment, consumer confidence drops–time to walk toward exits on more consumer stocks PEP, BUD

I’m not runnimg to the exits for consumer stocks but I am taking a brisk walk. Tomorrow, Wednesday, August 26, I will sell Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio with a gain of 35.82% as of the close on August 25 since I established the position on January 30, 2022. The shares are down 4.97% in the last three months but up 25.69% for 2026.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, August 26, I will sell PepsiCo (PEP) out of my Jubak Picks Porfolio with a loss of 17.91% since I established the position on April 27, 2022. I will keep a long-term position in PepsiCo in my 50 Stocks Portfolio. The stock is down 2.94% in the last three months but up 2.82% for 2026.

Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

At the miment, For the reasons I’ve stated in this post I think risks are weightd to the downside on earnings. So on Monday, August 24, I’m going to sell my position in Nvidia in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. That position is up 5.2% since I started it on July 8. I will re-evaluate this position after earnings with a strong likelihood of rebuying on any sell off.

Buy Alibaba on its move up to #1 global AI model

Buy Alibaba on its move up to #1 global AI model

Alibaba’s (BABA) open-weight models have accumulated more than 3 billion global downloads in the past six months, eclipsing Meta Platforms Inc., Alphabet Inc. and domestic peers to become the world’s No. 1 artificial-intelligence model. I think that AI is a truly revolutionary technology, but I’ve got string reservations about the high valuations and the potential future profitability of U.S. frontier closed model AI companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic. And I really don’t like the circular, debt-funded financial ecosystem that has turned the U.S. sector into something that looks, on some days, like a Ponzi scheme. I’m buying the U.S. -traded ADRs on Monday, August 17. A buy of Alibaba on my 12-18 month Jubak Picks and my long-term 50 Stocks portfolios is an attempt to invest in this technology while avoiding some of the risks. Morningstar calculates a $241 fair value price for the ADRs, which closed at $123.81 on Friday, August 14.

Chip stocks move into bear market–what’s next?

Chip stocks move into bear market–what’s next?

The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which stacks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has moved into Bear market territory with a drop of more than 20% from its June 22 high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is marginally short of the 29% drop that defines a Bear market. The pain was by no means equally distributed.

Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…

Time to rebuy Nvidia in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio

I sold Nvidia (NVDA) out go my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio on March 18 at a closing price of $180.40 My thinking then was that after a huge run Nvidia’s share had moved to an excessively optomistic valuation and it was time to give the shares a rest with expectations that the shares would correct and offer a lower rick re-entry price.
Turns out I was a “bit” early. Nvidia continued to climb until it hit an all-time high of $235.47. The shares closed at $196.93 on July 7. Now, though, I see the rebuying opportunity I was expecting. After losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in less than two months, Nvidia Corp.’s stock is the cheapest it’s been since before the AI boom kicked off and sent the shares into the stratosphere.

Microsoft abandons plan to lease $3 billion in AI compute from Oracle

Microsoft (MSFT) has abandoned plans to lease roughly $3 billion in cloud computing infrastructure from Oracle (ORCL). The collapse of the multi-year deal highlights how AI titans are increasingly forced to negotiate massive infrastructure-sharing agreements win an effort to work around bottlenecks in compute capacity and GPU chip supply.
And while one rain trop doesn’t make a hurricane, the collapse of this deal–and the vagueness of company explanations–are sure to focus even more attention on growth projections for AI companies.

So exactly how bad are things down on the farm?

So exactly how bad are things down on the farm?

Last year, America’s crop farmers lost $34.6 billion, and farm bankruptcies surged to numbers not seen since 2020, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. This year, 70% of farmers surveyed claim they cannot afford all the fertilizers they need. Fuel costs continue to rise as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Prices for some fertilizers are up 47% year over year. Meanwhile, farm exports to China, Canada, and other countries have taken a huge hit from U.S. tariff policy. Ninety-four percent of farmers reported that their financial situation has “worsened or remained the same” since last year. Fifteen thousand farms closed in 2025.
Bankruptcies were up 55% in 2024, 46% in 2025 and 70% for 2026 by May.

Now that’s a narrow market!

Now that’s a narrow market!

Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending is poised to become the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth over the next two years, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs projects that beneficiaries of AI infrastructure investment will account for roughly half of S&P 500 earnings per share growth in both 2026 and 2027. That’s two years–for the math challenged.