My one-hundredth-and-twenty-eighth YouTube video “Quick Pick Alibaba” went up today. Alibaba (BABA) and other Chinese internet companies have been struggling recently under the pressure of a government crackdown. However, with the slowing of the Chinese economy due to ongoing Pandemic lockdowns, the government has signaled that it will let up a bit on this crackdown (and move to add more stimulus to the economy.) Not surprisingly the shares of these companies have picked up some momentum. This is not a long-term pick–the government can and will reverse this loosening. Get some profits on Alibaba while the getting’s good. (Which is why I’m adding it to my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio and not by long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
The Chinese government has promised more stimulus to prop up growth in the country’s economy and the Politburo has indicated that, at least temporarily, it will slow the pace of its regulatory crack down on China’s Internet companies. The combination, as I posted in today’s Quick Pick YouTube video, has launched a huge rally in China’s Internet and e-commerce stocks. As of 3 p.m. on Friday, April 29, the New York traded shares of Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) wee up 8.95%. JD.com (JD) hadgained 7.72%. And Ablibaba (BABA), the big name among foreign investors and the leading target of government regulators is up 8.26%. On this trend, I’m adding shares of Alibaba to my JubakPicks Portfolio today
Tomorrow I will add shares of Walmart (WMT) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The stock is one of the 12 “Recession Picks” in my current Special Report: A Recession is Coming–Three Portfolio Strategies for a Recession; and 12 Recession Stock Picks. Right now I think Walmart’s stock has three things going for it. And only one of those is explicitly linked to a recession, which makes it a great recession stock
With the war in Ukraine continuing its horrible grind and with economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and Europe including more and more of the global economy, I’ve been looking for ways to invest in higher commodity prices. My steps have included buying oil and natural gas stocks back at the end of January and adding the iPath Bloomberg Commodity ETN (DJP) back on a few days ago on March 23. That’s given me good exposure to trends pushing energy prices higher, but I also want to include more exposure to higher agricultural prices. So I’m adding the iPath Series B Bloomberg Agriculture Total Return ETN (JJA) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
Projections schedule a potential Recession for the second half of 2022 or 2023. Fears of that impending trend will begin to be felt in stock prices before that. The sector most likely to feel the effects of any Recession–and thus the sector most likely to first feel the anticipation of that Recession on stock prices–is what Standard & Poor’s calls Consumer Discretionary” stocks. (The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) tracks these stocks for the S&P 500 index.) In my YouTube video yesterday, I flagged three stocks in this sector to sell ahead of any potential Recession–Netflix (NFLX), Starbucks (SBUX), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU). Of these I said I would sell Lululemon first
Australia has banned alumina shipments to Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The country is the source of 20% of the alumina used by Russia’s aluminum industry. Aluminum rose as much as 4.8% on the London Metal Exchange.The metal is now 25%for 2021. Shares of Alcoa (AA), which have been on a tear first on news of supply deficits and then on sanctions against Russian aluminum producers, gained 10.01% on Monday, March 21.
Shares of Ford Motor (F) were up 7.01% as of noon on Wednesday, March 2, on news that the company would reorganize its auto operations into two distinct businesses—one that makes its gasoline-powered vehicles and and another that produces electric vehicles. But, the company said, it has no plans at the moment to spin off the electric vehicle business.
Putin strikes back at Western sanctions; stock market expects more as cybersecurity stocks soar (and I’m adding SentinelOne to my Jubak Picks Portfolio today)
You didn’t expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to just shrug at Western sanctions that now include theU.S. Treasury clamping serious restrictions on Russia’s central bank, did you? Putin has banned all Russian residents from transferring hard currency abroad, including for servicing foreign loan contracts. Russia has $478 billion in external debt. Much of that is now in danger of default. (It’s not clear to me how this helps the Russian economy. Anyone want to lend or do business with a country that says, “Hey, forget about getting paid?) Today in New York trading, it’s clear that U.S. traders and investors don’t think these moves are Putin’s last. Cybersecurity stocks are soaring. And why not since Russia and it hacker gangs are about to demonstrate exactly why everybody needs to buy more security software. Which is why I’m adding shares of SentinelOne to my Jubak Picks Portfolio today.
After the close today, Nvidia (NVDA) reported fourth quarter earnings of $1.32 a share (versus analyst projections of $1.22) and revenue of $7.6 billion (versus expectations for $7.42 billion). As of 4:45 the stock has trading down $1.09 in the after-hours market. In my opinion that’s likely a result of a big run up in the stock before earnings. The stock gained 11% from February 11 through the close today, February 16. From January 27, a low in the recent downturn in Nvidia shares, to today’s close the shares are up 21%.
OPEC+ meets tomorrow and the oil cartel and friends like Russia is expected to approve an increase in production that will reduce last year’s cuts in production. But the odds are that the decision won’t matter.
The reaction to Microsoft’s (MSFT) earnings report yesterday after the market close tells you that this market is poised at an earnings inflection point. Earnings, especially technology company earnings, are going to be strong this quarter, but earnings growth rate will be down from the big Pandemic recovery growth rates of 2021. Will the solid earnings growth this quarter be enough to stabilize this market? Which brings me to Microsoft.