April 17, 2024 | ABBV, Daily JAM, Dividend Income |
Bookkeeping. I added AbbVie (ABBV) as Pick #10 for My New World for Dividend Investing Special Report (You can find it in the Special Report section of this site along with all the content on this market and its trends for Dividend Income investors. But I’m reposting it as a stand alone pick so no one misses it. AbbVie (ABBV) has been a long-time member of the Dividend Portfolio with a gain of 213% since my January 29, 2020 pick. The question right now is Should it be a top dividend pick going forward? After all, the appreciation in the stock has dropped the dividend yield to 3.67%. (Add in a modest yield from buybacks and the total yield goes to 4.18%.) The most pressing question has been What will replace the $20 billion in annual revenue from the company’s blockbuster arthritis drug Humira (adalimumab) now that it faces competition from biosimilar generics? Now we’ve got some numbers to answer that question and to me they add up to AbbVie remaining a top dividend pick.
April 17, 2024 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s video is Want to know when the Fed will cut rates? Look at the calendar. The Fed only has so many meetings left for 2024 and even fewer if you only coun those with Dot Plot updates of the Fed’s economic projections. The Fed is on the verge of a major shift in policy and the U.S. central bank almost never makes a big policty shift at a meeting without an update of its economic projections.. Early in the year, people were looking for up to five cuts, now, sentiment has shifted to one or fewer. If we get a rate cut at all, when will it be? Look at which upcoming Fed meetings include Dot Plots. The Fed doesn’t like to surprise investors and if they make a drastic change, like a shift to rate cuts, you can bet they want to do it while they’re also discussing projections for 2024 and 2025. The.CME Fedwatch Tool currently odds for the next meeting, May 1, at a 98% chance of no cut and the June meeting is now up to an 84.8% chance of no cut. The June meeting WILL have a Dot Plot and, up until recently, the finanial markets believed that meeting that would deliver the news. Because the Fed generally likes to give in-depth information during a big policy shift, it’s unlikely that the rate cut will be in July, since no dot Plot economic pdate is scheduled for that meeting. The next real chance of a rate cut, I think, is September 18, which has a Dot Plot. (There is no August Fed meeting.) The market thinks there will be a cut in September, and CME Fedwatch has the odds of no cut at that meeting at just 32.7%. A second rate cut in 2024 would have to be at the December 18 meeting, the final 2024 meeting with a Dot Plot. (The Fed doesn’t meet in Ocrober and the November meeting does include a Dot Plot update.) Without the September cut, it’s very unlikely there will be two cuts in 2024. Unless inflation data changes a lot, I doubt we’ll have two rate cuts, but we can look for one in September or December at this point.
April 16, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
China reported faster-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter–but… Although Gross Domestic Product climbed 5.3% in the quarter–a faster rate of growth than in the first quarter of 2023 and above economist estimates, most of the good news came from the first two months of the quarter. In March growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output fell short of forecasts. That doesn’t bode well for the rest of 2024.
April 15, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Can’t figure Tesla (TSLA) out? Welcome to the club. The stock was down another 5.59% today, April 15, and is now down 31% for 2024. Maybe investors will get some clarity on the company’s identity and strategy when it announced earnings on April 23. Wall Street analysts expect earnings of 36 cents a share against earnings of 73 cents a share in 2023. I think that strategic clarity is actually more important than quarterly earnings at this point for Tesla.
April 15, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
Apple has lost its spot as the world’s biggest mobile phone seller, IDC reported today, April 15. A steep drop in sales in China for Apple let South Korean rival Samsung retake the lead in global market share. Samsung had been the biggest seller of mobile phones for 12 years until the end of 2023, when sales of Apple’s iPhone models overtook it. Global smartphone shipments increased by 8% to 289.4m units during January-March, according to IDC. Samsung has a 20.8% market share. That beat Apple’s 17.3% share
April 14, 2024 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
After Israel and its allies (with the help of some Arab states that don’t want to see a wider Middle East war and who aren’t thrilled with the growing power of Iran and its proxies) succeeded in shooting down almost all of the drones (170), ballistic missiles (120), and cruise missiles (30) launched by Iran against the country, will the two sides both declare victory and claim that honor is satisfied or will one or the other escalate the war with another round of attacks? As of early Monday trading in Asia, the oil and gold markets have reacted with concern but not panic. Gold, up 13% already this year to a record above $2,400 an ounce, moved higher but the gains were relatively modest. Spot gold climbed 0.8% to $2,361.92 an ounce as of 6:20 a.m.in Singapore. The global oil market opened to the upside but by less than 1%. And prices have been steady to slightly weaker since then.
April 12, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
All good things come to an end. After seven straight quarters of record levels of profits from net interest income, the spread between what earns by lending and what it pays depositors to raise funds, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported that net interest income slightly missed analyst estimates for the first quarter. The quarter the company reported today certainly wasn’t a disaster. The bank earned $23.1 billion in net interest income in the period, up 11% from the first quarter of 2023. But the end of the beat and raise guidance of the last year and a half plus an increase in costs were enough to lead to substantial selling today, April 12. The shares finished the day down 6.47% at $182.79. Analysts and investors were clearly hoping for more.
April 12, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
West Texas Intermediate rose to its October 2023 highs, before pulling back, on fears that an Iranian retaliation for an Israeli attack on an Iranian consulate would lead to a wider war in the Middle East. International benchmark Brent crude surged as much as 2.7% to top $92 a barrel before retreating to close at $90.26 a barrel, up 0.58% on the day. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is now up 19% in 2024. Bloomberg reports that Western intelligence assessments are looking for an Iranian attack in the next 48 hours. No one wanted to hold U.S. equities ahead of the weekend.
April 11, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
So why was this so important today? Important enough to send the yield on the 10-year Treasury up another 3 basis points to 4.58%.The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6% in February and 0.4% in January. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand increased 2.1% for the 12 months ended in March, the largest advance since rising 2.3% for the 12 months ended April 2023..The March increase in the index for final demand is attributable to a 0.3% rise in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods edged down 0.1%. Look at the last set of numbers.
April 10, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
If, as the too hot April 10 CPI inflation argues, we’re not going to see a June 12 interest rate cut… And if investors are looking at two cuts in 2024 (at the most) instead of three… And if there’s a possibility that we won’t see the first rate cut until the November 7 Fed meeting… Then what will keep this rally from turning into a correction? Earnings look like they will have to do the job .Problem is that this quarter’s earnings look likely to disappoint. There are quarters with better earning growth forecast ahead. Will investors wait for them?
April 10, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
Fitch Ratings revised China’s outlook to negative from stable. The Big 3 rating company (along with Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investor Services) said the government is likely to pile on debt as it seeks to pull the economy out of a real estate-driven slowdown.The Fitch announcement matches a similar warning from Moody’s Investors Service in December. China’s public debt has risen rapidly over the past dozen years or so, as the government pumped money into the economy in order to prop up economic growth. To end a now years-long property slump, the government has already outlined new stimulus measures—like subsidies for households and businesses that want to upgrade appliances or machinery— and signaled that more will follow.Public debt was close to 80% of gross domestic product as of the middle of last year, roughly double the level of the mid-2010s, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
April 10, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
In March the Consumer Price Index inflation rate rose more than expected by economists for a third straight month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning. That looks to the market today, and to me, like it takes an initial interest rate cut off the table for the Fed’s June 12 meeting. The all-items inflation rate rose by 0.4% in March from February. The 12-month all-items inflation rate rose at a 3.5% rate in March. The core CPI, the inflation rate more important to the Federal Reserve, rose 0.4% month-over-month in March. And at a 3.8% annual rate.
