August 8, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Senate voted 90-6 early Saturday to pass a short-term funding bill to remove the threat of a government shutdown before the midterm elections. The legislation, advanced in a late-night session that stretched into the early hours, would keep federal funds flowing through December 11 at existing levels to give time to negotiate a full-year deal. Current spending authorization expires on September 30 so without a new spending bill the federal government would be forced to close–again–on October 1. So sounds like good news right? The Senate voted to keep the government running. But remember your high school civics. the Senate is only one of two houses of Congress. And the House is unlikely to vote to approve the Senate version. And Congress has now gone on recess until September 14, which leaves precious little time to iron out a bill acceptable to both houses before that September 30 deadline.
August 8, 2026 | Daily JAM |
While the number of working adults who depend on food stamps and Medicaid has ticked up since the days before the start of the COVID pandemic, the number of recipients who work at Amazon and on gig economy platforms has exploded, according to a new report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office. The number of Amazon workers relying on the federal programs for the poor nearly tripled between February 2020 and September 2025, according to the report published Wednesday. And for the first time, ride-hailing and app-based food delivery companies–Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Grubhub and Instacart–collectively ranked among the top three employers with workers receiving aid.
August 7, 2026 | Daily JAM, MSFT, NVDA |
Here’s a big question and worry about booming AI stocks: How much of the revenue at companies like Nividia, OpenAI, Oracle, and Microsoft reprints real revenue from arm-length deals and how much is the result of circular transaction that essentially reflect arrangements in which a seller is suppling cash or credit so a buyers can purchase its gear chips, or compute power. That’s, of course, an issue for anyone trying to value stocks in the sector. Real revenue deserves a higher multiple that circular revenue. But it’s also a big issue for anyone worried about the possibility that a flameout at one company could lead to a giant bonfire of the valuations across the entire sector. Recent financial disclosures from Microsoft (MSFT) shed light on this issue.
August 7, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Employers cut 23,000 positions on a seasonally adjusted basis last month, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.1% The underlying details were worse than the headlines suggest.
August 6, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Olive groves across Europe have been hit hard as the climate crisis drives temperatures across the continent to fresh record highs, meaning the cost of olive oil–already at elevated levels–is expected to start rising again. Groves have burned in Greece, Italy and Portugal this summer and even those nearby that were spared the flame have suffered blowing ash and poor air quality. The extreme hot weather has also prompted an increase in pests, disease and heavy storms as well as affecting fruit size. Olive oil producers said they expected another surge in prices this year as growers struggled with a combination of extreme heat, drought and, in some cases, fires. Sarah Vachon, founder of the Citizens of Soil olive oil group, told the Guardian: “Unless the weather is under control soon, we should expect pricing to rise in the autumn since there will be less edible fruit to make olive oil from.”Because olive oil is not a single standardized product in U.S. grocery data, there is no single olive oil price. But the North American Olive Oil Association (NAOOA) notes that average olive oil prices in U.S. retail were about 18% higher year-on-year. A global wholesale benchmark (olive oil price per metric ton in U.S. dollars) shows prices up about 23% year-on-year. For extra virgin specifically, price increases for most specialty and mid-tier retail products will be somewhere in that high-teens to low-20s percentage band, with premium single-origin bottles sometimes higher. Do I need to say all of those rates of price increase are well north of the official inflation rate near 3%?
August 6, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
At the last meeting of the Federal reserve Open Market Committee three members of the interest rate setting body voted against the Fed’s decision to hold interest rates steady. Rose dissenters wanted to raise interest rats to fight inflation still running north of the fed’s target 2% rate. That was a huge degree of disagreement at the Fed. And at the time, Wall Street increased its degree of worry that the new Fed chair faced a tough job to forge a consensus at the central bank. That worry was increased by the power of the dissenters’ message: Raise rates now because we’re worried that inflation expectations are getting ingrained in consumer psychology. Warsh, who has pledged not to forecast future rates, didn’t present an argument for waiting. Wednesday it became four against one.
August 4, 2026 | Daily JAM |
A group of U.S. states is suing over President Donald Trump’s latest attempt to use a new set of federal statutes as a legal basis for his global trade war. Add these efforts to similar lawsuits by groups of small businesses that contend the levies are illegal. The filing Monday in the U.S. Court of International Trade in Manhattan sets up a now-familiar clash with coalitions of states and small businesses locked in a fight with the administration over tariffs based on arguably questionable legal foundations.
August 4, 2026 | Daily JAM |
California governor Gavin Newsom announced that the state’s minimum wage will rise to $17.40 next year, a pay floor set to become the highest of any U.S. state. Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) calculate that for a family of two working adults and two children in California, each adult must earn $36.38 an hour to cover food, childcare, healthcare, housing and transportation, along with other basic necessities.
August 3, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Pubs, restaurants and supermarkets in the UK are having to buy lettuce and broccoli from Spain at what should be the height of UK growing season, as drought and extreme heat hit crops, the Guardia reports. To me this looks like a preview of the food insecurity likely to hit more and more farmers and consumers across the globe.
August 2, 2026 | Daily JAM |
We’re about to see the beginning of an extraordinary two week data drought, just as the Federal Reserve stresses that changes in interest rates will be “data dependent.”
July 31, 2026 | Daily JAM |
Financial reports released over the past week show that for the leading AI companies capital costs are swamping the revenue increases from the technology.
For example, at Alphabet/Google (GOOG), for every dollar of cash its business generated in the past three months, $1.15 went out the door to pay for AI computer chips and equipment, land for AI data centers and other big-ticket purchases. The company is covering the difference partly by borrowing money and selling more of its stock. Next year, five leading AI companies–Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Oracle—-are projected to show negative free cash flow. There will be no cash left over after paying expenses and AI infrastructure costs. The figures, based on investment analyst projections compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence, are a stunning reversal for what have been some of the world’s biggest cash generators.
July 31, 2026 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up another 6 basis points as on noon on Friday to 4.74%. That’s an increase of 27 basis points in a month. This comes after the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% at the meeting of the Open Market Committee.
And after Fed chair Kevin Warsh stressed repeatedly the Fed’s determination to bring inflation down to the central bank’s determination to bring core inflation down to the fed’s target of 2%. (Core CPI inflation was 2.9% year over year for the 12 months ended May 2026. Headline all items inflation was 4.2% year over year in May 2026.)
